Andy Haldane: Trade is Key to UK Economic Growth Despite Global Shocks

The narrative surrounding the decline of globalisation is premature, according to Andy Haldane, the newly appointed President of the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC). Speaking in his first address to delegates on Thursday, Haldane argued that embracing international trade remains the most effective strategy for bolstering the UK economy, despite ongoing supply chain disruptions and geopolitical instability.

A ‘Rupture, Not a Fatal Blow’

Haldane, former Chief Economist at the Bank of England, dismissed assertions that globalisation is in irreversible decline, characterizing such predictions as “hopelessly premature.” He acknowledged recent disruptions – including the coronavirus pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – but framed them as a “rupture” rather than a fatal blow to the interconnected global order. “There may be a rupture in the global world order, but It’s to the achilles not the aorta: painful, but provided we play our policy cards right, it necessitate not be fatal,” he stated.

This assessment comes amid a growing wave of protectionist measures and a re-evaluation of international supply chains by governments worldwide. The US, under former President Trump, initiated a series of tariffs that have since been deemed illegal by the US Supreme Court (City A.M.). More recently, the European Commission proposed a ‘Buy EU’ directive aimed at strengthening regional manufacturing (The Guardian), and both the UK and EU have increased tariffs on steel imports to protect domestic industries (City A.M.).

The Economic Case for Trade

Haldane’s core argument centers on the economic benefits of trade. He asserted that boosting trade volumes would act as a “rocket booster” to living standards and alleviate cost-of-living pressures. He emphasized that no other policy tool offers a comparable impact on the UK economy. This position aligns with the BCC’s Director General, Shevaun Haviland, who recently urged ministers to foster a more favorable trading environment, particularly in light of escalating tensions in the Middle East.

The BCC, representing businesses across the UK, has consistently advocated for open trade policies. Haldane will work alongside Haviland and BCC Chair, Sarah Howard, to represent the interests of its member businesses. He officially assumes the presidency on February 1, 2026, succeeding Baroness Martha Lane-Fox, whose three-year term is concluding (British Chambers of Commerce).

Impact of Geopolitical Instability

The ongoing conflict involving the US and Israel’s strikes on Iran has further amplified concerns about economic exposure to international events. Rising energy prices and potential interest rate hikes are anticipated consequences, prompting calls for greater economic independence within the UK. This has fueled debate around lifting the ban on new North Sea oil drilling, a contentious issue with environmental implications.

Haldane’s Background and Expertise

Andy Haldane brings a wealth of experience to the BCC presidency. Beyond his seven years on the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, he has served as Permanent Secretary for Levelling Up at the Cabinet Office, and previously chaired both the Government’s Industrial Strategy Council and its Levelling Up Advisory Council. He similarly held the position of Chief Executive at the Royal Society for Arts. His background suggests a focus on strategic economic policy and regional development.

Navigating a Complex Landscape

The BCC’s advocacy for trade comes at a critical juncture. While the benefits of globalisation are well-documented – lower prices for consumers, increased competition, and access to a wider range of goods and services – the recent shocks to the global system have exposed vulnerabilities in supply chains and heightened geopolitical risks. The challenge for policymakers, as Haldane suggests, lies in mitigating these risks while preserving the advantages of international trade.

Haviland echoed this sentiment, emphasizing the need for a “calm heads” approach from the government and continued dialogue with businesses. She highlighted the importance of maintaining competitiveness and resilience in the face of rising energy bills and the absence of price caps for businesses. The BCC is urging ministers to explore all available options to support UK businesses during these turbulent times.

Looking ahead, the BCC will likely play a key role in shaping the debate around trade policy and advocating for measures to support businesses navigating the evolving global landscape. The organization’s position, under Haldane’s leadership, will be closely watched by policymakers and businesses alike.