Australian Almonds: Record $1.3B Revenue Driven by China Demand | ABC News

Australia’s almond industry has reached a record valuation of $1.3 billion, fueled by surging demand from China, even as domestic production dipped slightly. The remarkable increase – a 20% jump in value despite a 5% decrease in volume – highlights the premium Australian almonds are commanding in the international market, particularly as geopolitical factors reshape global trade flows.

A Perfect Storm for Growers

Australian Almond Board chief executive Tim Jackson described the current market conditions as a “perfect storm” for growers, citing a favorable exchange rate and existing trade agreements with China and India as key drivers. These agreements, coupled with tariffs imposed on Californian almonds entering China – currently at 50% – have positioned Australian producers to capitalize on a rapidly expanding market. According to Jackson, growers are experiencing their best returns in a decade. The shift in demand is significant; China now accounts for 61% of Australia’s total almond exports, a figure that is raising some concerns about over-reliance on a single market.

The increase in value is particularly striking when considering the volume changes. Even as production fell by 5%, the overall value of the crop rose by 20%, demonstrating a clear shift towards higher prices. This dynamic is directly linked to the increased demand from China, where Australian almonds are being used in a diverse range of products, from almond milk to snacks and processed foods. As reported by the ABC, the demand is so strong that Chinese buyers are actively seeking out Australian almonds to avoid the tariffs applied to Californian imports.

China’s Appetite and Market Share

Data released this week by Hort Innovation confirms the dramatic increase in exports to China. Almond shipments to China jumped from 33,373 tonnes in the 2022-23 financial year to 76,132 tonnes in 2023-24. India remains a significant customer, taking 19,803 tonnes, a figure comparable to the previous year. The Australian Almond Board’s June 2025 Position Report indicates that China now represents 50% of total Australian almond exports (kernel weight equivalent), a substantial increase that underscores the country’s dominance in the market. At a recent China Tree Nut Conference in Ningbo, it was reported that Australia holds over 70% market share due to the tariff disadvantage faced by Californian almonds.

This dominance isn’t simply about price. Jackson notes that Chinese consumers are utilizing Australian almonds “in every which way you can think,” encompassing value-added products like almond milk, direct snacking, and various processing applications. This broad demand base provides a level of resilience and opportunity for Australian growers.

Record Harvest, Weather Dependent

Australia is forecasting a record almond crop this year, estimated at 166,892 tonnes, a 7% increase from the previous year. However, the harvest is facing some delays due to recent rainfall in key growing regions, such as South Australia’s Cooltong area. Growers like Jim Belehris are facing challenges with drying and potential mold issues, though Jackson acknowledges the broader benefit of replenishing water storages. Xinhua reports that the 2026 national almond crop estimate is 166,892 tonnes.

Beyond China: Diversification and Risks

While the Chinese market is driving the current success, the industry acknowledges the potential risks associated with such a high level of concentration. Jackson noted a degree of concern about the 61% reliance on a single market, but also recognized the immediate benefits for growers who have recently experienced low prices and returns. The industry is likely to continue exploring opportunities to diversify export markets, but for now, the economic incentives to focus on China are substantial.

The reliance on favorable trade conditions also presents a risk. Changes to trade agreements or the imposition of new tariffs could significantly impact the industry’s profitability. The vulnerability to weather events, as demonstrated by the recent rainfall delays, highlights the importance of water management and climate resilience strategies.

What’s Next for the Australian Almond Industry

The immediate focus is on completing the harvest, navigating the weather-related challenges, and fulfilling existing orders. Looking ahead, the industry will be closely monitoring developments in China, including consumer demand trends and any potential shifts in trade policy. The Australian Almond Board will continue to advocate for favorable trade conditions and explore opportunities to expand into new markets. The next key data release will be the almond position report for July 2025, providing an updated assessment of export volumes and market dynamics. Growers will also be watching water storage levels closely, balancing the need for replenishment with the potential for harvest delays.