Morocco’s Treasury Debt: Forecasts, Financing & 2026 Projections

Morocco’s treasury debt is projected to reach 1.211 trillion dirhams (MMDH) by the end of 2026, representing 65.5% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), according to recent analysis from Attijari Global Research (AGR). This forecast marks an increase from the estimated 1.163 MMDH, or 63.2% of GDP, expected at the close of 2025. The rising debt level reflects a continued trend of the Moroccan treasury increasingly turning to external markets for financing.

External Financing and Debt Composition

AGR’s projections indicate a shift in the composition of Morocco’s debt. While domestic debt is expected to reach 849 MMDH in 2025, representing a 4.6% increase year-over-year, external debt is growing at a faster pace – a projected 16.3% increase from 254 MMDH in 2024 to 314 MMDH in 2025. This trend is driven by the treasury’s deliberate strategy to seek funding from external sources. Despite this increase, AGR notes that external debt remains within a benchmark range of 25% to 30% of the total treasury debt, currently standing at 27% as of 2025. This is slightly up from 24.9% in 2024.

The preference for external financing is likely linked to favorable conditions for Moroccan debt. Recent reports suggest investor confidence in Morocco’s risk profile, coupled with declining interest rates internationally, is encouraging the treasury to tap into international markets for debt issuance. Attijari Cib highlights this positive outlook, suggesting the treasury is well-positioned to secure favorable terms on international debt offerings.

Recent Treasury Activity and Market Dynamics

In January 2026, the Moroccan treasury successfully covered 91% of its financing needs through domestic markets, according to L’Information. This indicates a strong appetite for Moroccan treasury bonds within the country. However, the increasing reliance on external debt, as projected for 2026, suggests a potential shift in strategy or a demand to access larger funding volumes.

The timing of Morocco’s international debt issuances is crucial. A 2020 report from Attijari Cib noted that the premium demanded by investors for Moroccan Eurobonds had doubled compared to 2019 levels, with spreads of 190 basis points for 5.5-year maturities and 240 basis points for 10-year maturities. While current market conditions are more favorable, monitoring investor risk appetite remains critical.

Implications for the Moroccan Economy

The projected increase in treasury debt has several implications for the Moroccan economy. A higher debt-to-GDP ratio could potentially increase the country’s vulnerability to external shocks and limit its fiscal space for future investments. Servicing this debt will require a larger portion of government revenue, potentially diverting funds from essential public services or economic development projects.

However, the utilize of external financing can also offer benefits. Accessing international capital markets can provide Morocco with lower borrowing costs compared to domestic sources, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment. Diversifying funding sources can reduce the country’s reliance on domestic banks and investors. The Moroccan economy has shown resilience, and the ability to manage its debt profile will be key to sustaining growth.

Debt Repayments on the Horizon

Looking ahead, Medias24 reports that Morocco faces a peak in external debt repayments in 2026. This will necessitate careful debt management strategies and potentially increased borrowing to meet these obligations. The ability to refinance existing debt at favorable terms will be crucial in mitigating the impact of these repayments.

Budgetary Control and Fiscal Performance

Despite the increasing debt levels, AGR’s recent “Budget Focus – December 2025” report indicates that the Moroccan treasury has managed to control its budget deficit, keeping it slightly above the initial forecast in the 2025 Finance Law, at 60.5 billion dirhams (MMDH), or 3.5% of GDP. This demonstrates a degree of fiscal discipline and effective budget management. The report also highlights the growth in domestic debt, reaching 849 MMDH in 2025, a 4.6% increase from the previous year.

The Moroccan government’s ability to maintain budgetary control and attract investment will be critical in navigating the challenges posed by the rising debt levels. Continued economic reforms, coupled with prudent fiscal policies, will be essential to ensure the long-term sustainability of the country’s public finances.

Next Steps: The Moroccan treasury will likely continue to monitor international market conditions and assess opportunities for debt issuance. Investors will be closely watching the government’s debt management strategy and its ability to maintain fiscal discipline. Further details on the treasury’s financing plans are expected to be released in upcoming budget reports and investor presentations.