Netanyahu Rushes Israel Budget Amid Iran War & Election Fears

Netanyahu’s Budget Push: A Bid to Outlast War Fatigue and Political Headwinds

Jerusalem – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in a race against the clock to pass a state budget, a move widely seen as an attempt to prevent early elections he is currently projected to lose. The ongoing conflict with Iran, while initially offering a potential boost to his political standing, has so far failed to translate into improved poll numbers, according to Reuters reporting and analysis of recent surveys. The budget deadline is March 31st, and failure to meet it would automatically trigger a vote within 90 days.

The initial days of the conflict following the strikes that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei saw some within Netanyahu’s camp explore the possibility of leveraging the heightened sense of national security to call for elections before the scheduled October date. However, as the war nears its fifth week, with no clear path to achieving its stated objectives – namely, toppling Iran’s clerical rulers – the focus has shifted decisively towards avoiding an early contest, three government members told Reuters. This shift is underscored by efforts to secure parliamentary support for the $225 billion defense-heavy budget.

Economic Strain and Coalition Bargaining

The war is already taking a significant toll on the Israeli economy. Finance Ministry estimates set the weekly cost at five billion shekels ($1.6 billion, as of March 25, 2026, with an exchange rate of 3.1192 shekels per dollar). An additional 32 billion shekels has been allocated for defense spending since the start of the conflict. This increased expenditure is creating pressure on the government to balance defense needs with the demands of key coalition partners.

Securing the necessary votes for the budget has involved allocating funds to political allies, particularly ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties. These parties had previously threatened to vote against the budget unless legislation exempting ultra-Orthodox individuals from mandatory military service was finalized. The government responded by allocating approximately five billion shekels for ultra-Orthodox schools, seemingly appeasing these key constituents. Vladimir Beliak, an opposition member of the Finance Committee, criticized this move as prioritizing “coalition survival over fair distribution of resources.”

Polls Show Limited Gains Despite Iran Focus

While the war has allowed Netanyahu to refocus public attention away from the fallout from the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks and towards the campaign against Iran – a subject where national consensus is stronger – this hasn’t necessarily translated into electoral gains. Polls continue to show a largely unchanged political landscape. Gideon Rahat, a political scientist at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, notes that surveys consistently reveal around 40% support for Netanyahu’s coalition, 40% for opposition parties, and a remaining 20% swing vote that is not currently leaning towards the prime minister.

This stagnation is partly attributed to growing war fatigue as the conflict drags on without a decisive resolution. Rahat points to a pattern of conflict followed by periods of quiet, and then renewed hostilities, contributing to a sense of cyclical instability. A poll published by the Times of Israel on March 19th indicated that Netanyahu’s Likud party would win 28 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, a decrease from the 34 seats it currently holds. This projection suggests that even with a potential rally effect from the war, the coalition would fall short of a majority, securing only 51 seats.

Mossad’s Unfulfilled Expectations and the Search for Regime Change

Adding another layer of complexity to Netanyahu’s situation is the apparent failure of a Mossad plan to incite a popular uprising within Iran. According to a report in The Times of Israel, Mossad chief David Barnea presented a plan to Netanyahu prior to the war, predicting that the elimination of Iranian leaders would galvanize the opposition and lead to mass unrest, potentially resulting in the collapse of the regime. This plan was as well reportedly presented to the White House. However, US and Israeli officials now express skepticism about the prospects for regime change, citing fears of a repeat of the violent crackdown on protesters seen in January and the potential for further instability caused by the ongoing bombing campaign.

Netanyahu’s Legal Challenges and Pardon Request

Beyond the political and economic pressures, Netanyahu also faces ongoing legal challenges related to his corruption trial on charges of fraud, bribery, and breach of trust, which he denies. He has reportedly appealed to Israeli President Isaac Herzog for a pardon, with support from U.S. President Donald Trump. However, a mid-trial pardon would be unprecedented, and the Israeli justice system has voiced opposition to such a move.

A Shifting Narrative: From Victory to Prolonged Conflict

The initial declaration of “unequivocal victory” following the 12-day war with Iran in June 2025, as reported by CNN, now appears increasingly distant. Netanyahu had claimed at the time that Israel had “removed two existential threats” – Iran’s ballistic missiles and its nuclear program. However, the current conflict, now in its 26th day, demonstrates the limitations of those initial gains. While Netanyahu continues to assert that “we are winning, and Iran is decapitated,” the lack of a clear finish in sight suggests a more protracted and challenging situation.

Netanyahu’s strategy now appears to be focused on buying time, both to navigate the current conflict and to avoid facing voters in an election he is likely to lose. The passage of the state budget is central to this strategy, and the government is employing a combination of political maneuvering and financial incentives to secure its approval. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether Netanyahu can successfully stave off an early election and maintain his grip on power.

As the war continues, the economic impact will likely intensify, and the political pressures will mount. The outcome of this period will have significant implications for Israel’s future, both domestically and internationally. The Jerusalem Post reports that Netanyahu is actively seeking international support for Operation Roaring Lion, also known as Epic Fury, highlighting the importance of maintaining alliances and securing external assistance.