Oil Price Surge Continues Despite Emergency Reserves Release

Jakarta, The anticipated release of the world’s largest emergency oil reserves, orchestrated by the United States and its allies, has failed to quell concerns about unprecedented price increases. Despite the coordinated effort, crude oil prices have continued to climb, defying expectations of a significant market correction.

More than 30 countries across Europe, North America and Northeast Asia agreed to release approximately 400 million barrels of oil into the global market to counteract surging energy prices. The United States spearheaded this initiative, committing to release 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, representing 43% of the total coordinated release by the International Energy Agency (IEA). CNBC Indonesia reported this release as a significant attempt to stabilize global oil markets.

This action constitutes the largest oil reserve release in the IEA’s 50-year history, reflecting the organization’s commitment to safeguarding energy security for its member nations during global crises. However, the market response has been muted, with oil prices actually increasing since the announcement on Wednesday, February 16, 2026. Brent crude, the international benchmark, closed above US$100 per barrel for the second consecutive session on Friday, March 11, 2026.

Geopolitical Tensions Override Supply Increase

Analysts at PVM Oil Associates, based in London, attribute the continued price increases to persistent geopolitical instability. According to CNBC Indonesia, attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf and threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with pronouncements from Iranian leadership, are fueling market anxieties. These factors are overshadowing the impact of the released reserves.

“Until transit is reactivated, such policy announcements will have limited impact,” stated Tom Liles, Senior Vice President of upstream research at Rystad Energy. Liles explained that Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates previously exported around 14 million barrels per day (bpd). Approximately 5 to 6 million bpd flowed through pipelines from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, reaching the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman. This leaves roughly 9 million bpd, or about 10% of global supply, reliant on passage through the Strait, which remains constrained.

Liles estimates that the 400 million barrel release could cover approximately 40 days of the currently disrupted supply. However, he cautions that the actual release rate is far more complex. “It’s not as if 400 million barrels suddenly appear on the market,” he said.

Limited Impact of Emergency Reserves

The disruption to oil supplies caused by geopolitical events significantly outweighs the volume of reserves that can be released by the IEA on a daily basis. Analysts at Bernstein believe the impact on oil prices will be limited. The U.S. Plans to release 172 million barrels over 120 days, equating to 1.4 million barrels per day – just 15% of the supply lost due to the Strait of Hormuz constraints. It will take at least 13 days for the released barrels to reach the market following authorization from President Donald Trump.

The IEA has not detailed the timing or volume of releases from its other member countries, leaving those decisions to individual nations based on their specific circumstances. The IEA last tapped its emergency reserves in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, achieving a combined record release of 1.3 million barrels per day in September 2022, according to Rapidan Energy. The IEA may be able to increase the release rate to nearly 2 million barrels per day.

“This buys time, but doesn’t solve the crisis,” analysts at Bernstein concluded.

U.S. Trade Relations and Potential Agreements

While the oil market grapples with supply concerns, trade relations between Indonesia and the United States remain focused on the Agreement of Reciprocal Trade (ART), signed in February 2026. Kompas.com reported that the agreement is still undergoing internal legal procedures in both countries before full implementation. This suggests a continued effort to strengthen economic ties despite global uncertainties.

President Prabowo Subianto’s recent working visit to Washington D.C., beginning February 16, 2026, included discussions with President Donald Trump aimed at bolstering Indonesia-U.S. Relations and exploring strategic economic cooperation, including potential trade agreements. The President was accompanied by Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Bahlil Lahadalia and Cabinet Secretary Teddy Indra Wijaya.

Inflationary Pressures in the U.S.

Adding to the complexity of the situation, the United States is also facing renewed inflationary pressures. A YouTube report from CNBC Indonesia highlights rising prices for food, gasoline, housing, and various services. The interplay between these inflationary forces and the oil supply situation creates a challenging economic landscape for both the U.S. And global markets.

Looking Ahead: The effectiveness of the emergency oil reserve release will depend heavily on the resolution of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Until safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is restored, the impact on oil prices is likely to remain limited. The ongoing legal processes surrounding the ART agreement between Indonesia and the U.S. Will also be a key factor in shaping future trade dynamics. Market participants will be closely watching for further developments in both areas, as well as monitoring inflation data and potential policy responses from the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration.