Repsol Eyes Venezuela & US Expansion: 2028 Strategy Update

Spanish energy giant Repsol is sharpening its focus on expanding oil and gas exploration and production in both Venezuela and the United States, a strategic shift unveiled ahead of a broader update to its 2028 business plan scheduled for Tuesday, March 10, 2026. The move comes as Repsol aims to capitalize on a more favorable operating environment in Venezuela following easing of U.S. Sanctions and a robust outlook for upstream operations in the U.S.

The company, led by CEO Josu Jon Imaz, intends to adapt its financial projections to reflect current market realities and geopolitical developments. A core tenet of the updated strategy will be maximizing returns from its ‘Upstream’ business – encompassing exploration and production – with Venezuela and the U.S. Identified as key growth areas. Imaz has consistently emphasized the importance of shareholder returns, business transformation investments and a strong balance sheet as guiding principles for the company’s direction.

Venezuela: A Potential Production Boost

Repsol already holds significant stakes in Venezuela, a nation possessing some of the world’s largest proven oil reserves. The recent relaxation of U.S. Sanctions, following political developments including the detention of Nicolás Maduro and intervention by the Donald Trump administration, has opened new opportunities for international energy companies. Imaz recently indicated that Repsol could increase its crude oil production in Venezuela by more than 50% within a year, following authorization from the U.S. Government to resume operations in the South American country. As reported by Infobae, the U.S. Has granted Repsol specific licenses to resume operations, including the possibility of new exploration and production investments.

The U.S. Treasury Department has issued two new licenses – ‘General License 49’ and ‘General License 50’ – extending permissions not only to Repsol but also to Chevron, BP, Shell, and Eni. These licenses, issued by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), stipulate that any contracts with Venezuelan entities, including the state oil company PDVSA, must be governed by U.S. Or compatible jurisdictions, and any disputes will be resolved within the U.S. Legal system. Infobae details that General License 49 allows for the negotiation of contingent investment contracts, while General License 50 expands permissions for transactions directly related to oil and gas operations in Venezuela.

U.S. Upstream Opportunities

Alongside Venezuela, the United States represents a significant focus for Repsol’s upstream strategy. Projects like Leon-Castile and Pikka in Alaska are seen as particularly promising. El Periódico de la Energía reports that Repsol closed 2025 with a net profit of €1.899 billion (approximately $2.06 billion USD based on current exchange rates), an 8.1% increase, despite volatile crude and gas prices and moderate refining margins. This financial performance, coupled with rising oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions, has contributed to a nearly 30% increase in Repsol’s stock value so far this year, exceeding €20 per share.

Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns

Repsol’s strong financial results are enabling a continued commitment to shareholder returns. The company has reaffirmed its intention to distribute €1.051 billion (approximately $1.14 billion USD) in gross dividends per share in 2026, a 7.8% increase from the previous year. Share buyback programs will also continue. The anticipated profitability of the upstream business is expected to be more resilient and predictable, according to Imaz.

Strategic Shift and Upstream Focus

This strategic realignment towards upstream operations represents a notable shift for Repsol. The company previously announced it had achieved its objectives two years ahead of schedule, prompting a reassessment of its long-term strategy. The focus on exploration and production is driven by the belief that it offers greater potential for growth and profitability in the current market environment. Capital.es highlights that Repsol is preparing for a significant update to its strategy through 2028, adjusting its metrics to reflect the changing global market and recent geopolitical events.

The company is also considering a potential liquidity event for its upstream subsidiary in 2026, potentially including a public listing in the United States, though no firm decisions have been made. This move would allow Repsol to unlock value from its upstream assets and attract new investment.

Implications for the Energy Market

Repsol’s increased investment in Venezuela and the U.S. Could have broader implications for the global energy market. Increased production from Venezuela could assist to alleviate supply constraints and moderate oil prices, although the extent of this impact will depend on the pace of production growth and the overall geopolitical landscape. The U.S. Projects, particularly in Alaska, contribute to bolstering North American energy independence and security.

The company’s commitment to shareholder returns and its strong financial performance signal confidence in its long-term prospects. However, Repsol will necessitate to navigate potential risks associated with operating in Venezuela, including political instability and regulatory uncertainty. The success of its strategy will also depend on its ability to effectively manage costs and maintain a competitive position in the global energy market.

Next Steps: Repsol will formally present its updated 2028 strategy on Tuesday, March 10, 2026. Investors and industry analysts will be closely watching for further details on the company’s investment plans, financial projections, and shareholder return policies. The company will also be monitoring developments in Venezuela and the U.S. To assess potential opportunities and risks.