Retrofit Reality Check: ESRI Experts Defend Report & Call for Data-Driven Approach

The debate over Ireland’s national retrofit plan continues, with the authors of a recent report that questioned its effectiveness reiterating their belief that home retrofitting is, in fact, essential. Dr. Muireann Lynch and Professor Niall Farrell, of the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), appeared before the Oireachtas Committee on Climate Action on Wednesday to clarify their findings and address concerns sparked by their research. The core of the discussion centered on the pace and impact of the current retrofit program, and whether it’s delivering the promised carbon reductions.

Behind the Report: A Reality Check on Retrofit Savings

The ESRI report, published last week, ignited a public and political discussion after suggesting the national retrofit plan was falling short of its targets and that retrofitted homes weren’t achieving the anticipated energy and greenhouse gas emission savings. This prompted a summons to appear before the Oireachtas Committee, where Lynch and Farrell emphasized that their intention wasn’t to dismiss retrofitting altogether, but to highlight the limitations of the current approach and propose complementary strategies. As Dr. Lynch explained to the committee, the goal was to examine the plan’s shortcomings and suggest ways to improve its effectiveness. The report itself followed a period of intense scrutiny of Ireland’s climate goals, with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) projecting the country will miss its carbon reduction targets, including those related to the residential sector. The Irish Times detailed the initial reaction to the report and the concerns it raised.

Electrification is Key, But Not Fast Enough

Both researchers underscored the importance of electrifying the residential sector – transitioning from gas and oil heating to electric heat pumps – as a crucial step in decarbonization. “Anyone serious about climate action says we need the whole residential sector electrified,” Lynch stated. Though, she cautioned that achieving this goal at the required speed is a significant challenge. Even if Ireland successfully retrofits the targeted 500,000 homes, that still leaves approximately two million homes needing attention. A particularly pressing issue is the 700,000 homes that currently rely on kerosene for heating. The ESRI research suggests that a shift to natural gas, while not a long-term solution, could offer a lower-carbon alternative for these households in the short term. However, the cost of connecting to a gas network remains a deterrent for many homeowners, with approximately 13% of oil-reliant households expressing willingness to switch if the connection fee were removed.

The Data Gap: A Challenge for Accurate Assessment

A significant obstacle to accurately evaluating the effectiveness of retrofitting efforts, according to Lynch and Farrell, is the lack of robust Irish data. The energy savings figures cited in many studies originate from international research, as detailed real-time data on household energy usage before and after retrofits is scarce. Collecting this data would require installing multiple sensors in homes to track heating patterns, appliance usage, and even window and door openings – a process that raises privacy concerns and necessitates lengthy approval processes. Farrell explained that obtaining the necessary permissions and setting up the infrastructure for such data collection can take years. The committee chairman, Naoise Ó Muirí, suggested a potential solution: making the provision of energy usage data a condition for receiving retrofit grants. Lynch indicated this would be a valuable step forward.

Beyond Retrofits: A Broader Data Collection Strategy

The call for improved data collection extended beyond retrofitted homes. Lynch also proposed requiring recipients of electric vehicle (EV) grants to provide their Eircode (Ireland’s postcode system) for future research purposes. This would allow for a more comprehensive understanding of the interplay between EV adoption, energy consumption, and broader decarbonization efforts. The ESRI’s opening statement to the Joint Committee on Climate, Environment and Energy, available here, outlines these data needs in greater detail.

Implications for the Irish Housing Sector

The ESRI’s findings have significant implications for the Irish housing sector and the government’s climate action plans. The current retrofit program, heavily reliant on energy efficiency measures and electrification, requires substantial investment from both homeowners and the state. The report’s emphasis on the limitations of the current approach suggests a need for a more nuanced strategy that considers alternative solutions, such as the temporary transition to natural gas for kerosene-reliant households. This also highlights the importance of addressing the financial barriers to retrofitting, such as the high cost of heat pumps and the connection fees for natural gas. The debate also underscores the broader challenge of balancing ambitious climate targets with the practical realities of the Irish housing stock and the financial constraints of homeowners.

ESRI Research and the Oireachtas Committee

The ESRI’s involvement in this debate stems from its ongoing research into residential heat decarbonization in Ireland. As highlighted in their opening statement to the Oireachtas Committee on March 25, 2026, their work is supported by data from the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI), the Central Statistics Office (CSO), and various energy industry participants. Funding for this research comes from sources including SEAI, Research Ireland, Horizon Europe, and energy industry organizations. The ESRI’s website provides further information on their research activities, and publications.

Next Steps: Data-Driven Policy Adjustments

The immediate next step is for the Oireachtas Committee on Climate Action to consider the ESRI’s recommendations and incorporate them into its policy deliberations. The committee may explore options for incentivizing data collection from retrofitted homes, potentially through grant conditions. Further research is needed to assess the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of alternative solutions, such as the temporary transition to natural gas. A data-driven approach will be crucial for ensuring that Ireland’s retrofit program is effective in achieving its carbon reduction targets and delivering tangible benefits to homeowners and the environment.