Bleak February Box Office: 2024 Shaping Up to Be a Down Year for Film
February is shaping up to be a challenging month at the box office, despite the leap day and limited IMAX screenings of Dune: Part Two on February 25th. Early projections suggest 2024 could be down 20 percent from last year’s $9 billion haul, potentially falling short of the estimated $8 billion domestic target.
Only five wide studio releases are slated for February: Argylle (Universal) on February 2nd, Lisa Frankenstein (Focus) on February 9th, and a double feature on February 14th with Madame Web (Sony) and Bob Marley: One Love (Paramount), followed by Ordinary Angels (Lionsgate) on February 23rd. The lack of major holdovers from January, which saw a 14 percent decline compared to the previous year, adds to the pressure.
A Slow Start to the Year
January’s box office performance was lackluster, with only a little over $500 million in revenue. February’s projections are even more conservative, potentially falling below $400 million. This is largely due to the absence of the strong holdover business seen in 2023, when films like Avatar: The Way of Water continued to draw audiences well into the modern year. The current top performer, Indicate Girls, has earned $61 million to date, but its momentum is expected to wane.
The situation is further complicated by the fact that none of the February releases are part of established franchises, with the exception of the Marvel-adjacent Madame Web. This makes predicting their performance more tricky, as they lack the built-in audience base of a superhero sequel or established action series. Argylle, a CGI-heavy spy thriller with a reported $200 million budget, initially hoped for a $20 million opening weekend, but current expectations are lower following lukewarm reviews, which give it a Metascore of 40. The film, originally developed for AppleTV+, is receiving a theatrical release ahead of its streaming debut.
Midweek Openings and Potential Upsides
Both Sony’s Madame Web and Paramount’s Bob Marley: One Love are opting for midweek openings to capitalize on Valentine’s Day and Presidents’ Day. Neither film has been widely screened for press, adding an element of uncertainty to their potential performance. However, both projects boast strong casts and compelling subject matter.
Madame Web, starring Dakota Johnson, Emma Roberts, and Sydney Sweeney, is a Spider-Man spin-off that has generated considerable buzz. As IndieWire reported, Dakota Johnson herself expressed a somewhat ambivalent view of the superhero genre, describing the acting process as “psychotic.” Despite this, the film’s cast and potential for breakout characters offer a glimmer of hope.
Bob Marley: One Love, directed by Reinaldo Marcus Green (known for King Richard), is a biopic celebrating the life and music of the reggae icon. Biopics have proven successful in recent years, with films about Elvis Presley, Freddie Mercury, and Elton John all achieving significant box office results. Early estimates suggest One Love may outperform Madame Web, potentially becoming the highest-grossing film of 2024 to date.
Genre Diversification and Budget Considerations
The February slate offers a degree of genre diversification, with Lisa Frankenstein, a horror comedy budgeted under $15 million, and Ordinary Angels, a faith-based medical drama, aiming for different audiences. However, both are projected to gross under $50 million, with most estimates falling in the $20 million to $30 million range.
The relatively low budgets of these films reflect a cautious approach from studios, given the uncertain economic climate and the challenges facing the theatrical market. The faith-based film Ordinary Angels was originally scheduled to open opposite Taylor Swift’s The Eras Tour concert film, but was moved to February to avoid direct competition.
Looking Ahead: March Offers a Ray of Hope
The outlook for February remains bleak, with the success of the new releases largely dependent on their ability to defy expectations. However, March offers a glimmer of hope, with the release of Dune: Part Two, followed by Kung Fu Panda 4, Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, and Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire. If these films perform as expected, they could help to revitalize the box office and put the industry back on track. The success of these franchise titles will be crucial in determining whether 2024 can recover from its slow start.