Frankenstein: Frontrunner for 3 Oscars – Predictions & Odds 2026

Despite a Best Director snub for Guillermo del Toro, Netflix’s Frankenstein is poised to be a major player at the 98th Academy Awards. Whereas it isn’t predicted to dominate the topline categories, the film has amassed nine nominations and is currently favored to win three Oscars, according to betting odds. This surprising showing places Frankenstein in contention for third place in the overall Oscar count, trailing only One Battle After Another and Sinners.

The film, a gothic science fiction drama based on Mary Shelley’s 1818 novel, stars Oscar Isaac as Victor Frankenstein and Jacob Elordi as the Creature, with supporting roles from Mia Goth and Christoph Waltz. Del Toro, who wrote, produced, and directed the $120 million production, had long envisioned a faithful adaptation of the classic tale. Frankenstein premiered at the Venice International Film Festival on August 30, 2025, before arriving on Netflix on November 7, 2025, following a limited theatrical release on October 17, 2025.

A Lock in Technical Categories

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket indicate that Frankenstein is the overwhelming favorite to win in three technical categories: Best Makeup and Hairstyling, Best Production Design, and Best Costume Design. The margins are so significant that a win in each category is considered almost certain.

The makeup and hairstyling team, led by Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, and Cliona Furey, has consistently been recognized throughout awards season. They’ve already secured wins at the Astra Film Awards, Critics’ Choice Movie Awards, and the British Academy Film Awards (BAFTAs). Their work transforming Jacob Elordi into the Creature also earned them the prize for Best Special Make-Up Effects from the Make-Up Artists & Hair Stylists Guild in February. The team’s success stems from their innovative approach to the Creature’s appearance, a departure from previous interpretations. As ComingSoon.net reported, Elordi’s portrayal offers a distinctly different look for the iconic monster.

As of March 11, betting markets estimate Frankenstein’s chances of winning Best Makeup and Hairstyling at around 92%, significantly higher than its closest competitor, Sinners, which is given a 6-8% chance.

Kate Hawley’s costume design is similarly dominating the awards landscape. She has already received accolades from the BAFTAs, Critics’ Choice Movie Awards, Saturn Awards, and Satellite Awards, including the Costume Designers Guild Award for Excellence in Period Film. Her closest competitor, Ruth E. Carter for Sinners, currently holds only about 7% of the betting market’s confidence, compared to Frankenstein’s 90%.

Tamara Deverall and Shane Vieau, the production designer and set designer respectively, have also enjoyed a successful awards season, with wins at the Critics’ Choice, BAFTAs, Saturn Awards, and Satellite Awards, as well as the Set Decorators Society of America Award for Best Achievement in Décor/Design of a Fantasy or Science Fiction Feature Film. Sinners’ Hannah Beachler and Monique Champagne trail behind with approximately 8% of the bet, while Frankenstein maintains a commanding 91% lead.

Beyond the Technicals: A Broader Range of Recognition

While the technical categories appear firmly within Frankenstein’s grasp, the film has also garnered nominations in several other key areas. Oscar Isaac’s performance as Victor Frankenstein, Jacob Elordi’s portrayal of the Creature, Dan Laustsen’s cinematography, Alexandre Desplat’s original score, and Guillermo del Toro’s adapted screenplay have all been recognized by the Academy.

Del Toro’s journey to bring Frankenstein to the screen was a lengthy one. Initially developed with Universal Pictures, the project stalled due to the studio’s plans for a “Dark Universe” franchise. As detailed on Wikipedia, Doug Jones was originally cast as the Creature, and Bernie Wrightson’s illustrated adaptation of the novel was a key inspiration for the film’s visual style. Netflix revived the project in 2023, ultimately casting Jacob Elordi in the role. Filming took place between February and September 2024.

Despite the initial setbacks, Del Toro’s vision has resonated with critics and audiences alike, resulting in a film that is now a strong contender for multiple Academy Awards. While Sinners is expected to perform well, potentially winning three to five awards itself, Frankenstein’s dominance in the technical categories positions it for a significant presence at the 98th Academy Awards.

Looking Ahead: Post-Awards Momentum

The Academy Awards ceremony on March 29th will be the culmination of a successful awards season for Frankenstein. A strong showing could further solidify Del Toro’s reputation as a visionary filmmaker and elevate the profiles of the film’s key creative contributors. The wins are also likely to boost the film’s visibility on Netflix, potentially attracting new viewers and extending its cultural impact. The success of Frankenstein may also encourage further adaptations of classic literary works, particularly within the gothic and science fiction genres.