Gulf States Wary of Israel’s Actions & Iran Conflict: A Shifting Middle East Alignment

The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran is prompting a delicate and, at times, publicly awkward dance among Gulf states. While the immediate battlefield is defined by missile strikes and drone interceptions, a parallel struggle is unfolding as Israeli officials attempt to draw their Gulf counterparts more openly into a coalition against Tehran. The effort, however, is meeting with considerable resistance, as Gulf nations prioritize maintaining a facade of neutrality and safeguarding their own long-term interests.

A Public Push for Alignment

Recent reports suggest a concerted effort by Israel to publicly enlist support from Gulf states. The Jerusalem Post, for example, reported several days ago that the United Arab Emirates had conducted a strike on a desalination plant within Iran, citing an unnamed source. This claim was swiftly and firmly denied by an Emirati official, labeling the report as “fake news.” A similar scenario played out when Israeli media outlets claimed Qatar had launched an attack inside Iran following an attempted strike on Doha’s Hamad International Airport. Qatar’s foreign ministry promptly issued a denial, stating the country had not joined any “campaign targeting Iran.” Qatar has, however, publicly called on Iran to halt attacks on Gulf countries, urging a diplomatic solution to the wider conflict with the United States and Israel.

Despite these public denials, some analysts believe a degree of private coordination exists between Gulf states and the U.S.-Israeli coalition. However, the overwhelming sentiment appears to be a desire to avoid appearing overtly aligned with either side. This caution stems from a pragmatic assessment of the situation: Gulf nations, according to experts, operate under the assumption that the current Iranian regime is unlikely to be toppled by military action.

The Shifting Sands of Regional Alliances

The war is already triggering subtle realignments in the region. Reports indicate Qatar is considering expelling Hamas leaders from its territory due to their refusal to condemn Iranian attacks. This potential move signals a shift in Qatar’s long-standing relationship with the Palestinian militant group, potentially driven by concerns over its alignment with Iran. This comes as Tehran’s proxy organizations across the Middle East—in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq—are facing setbacks, a development some analysts view as significant.

However, this perceived weakening of Iran’s regional influence carries a risk for Israel. Experts warn that Israel could be perceived as a “regional bully that is out of control,” prompting Arab nations to seek a counterbalance to Israeli military dominance. One potential avenue for this counterbalance is strengthening ties with Turkey, as Saudi Arabia recently did, a move that has reportedly caused consternation in Jerusalem.

Technological Integration and Lingering Distrust

The current crisis is also accelerating discussions around military integration between Gulf states, the U.S., and Israel. Gulf nations are reportedly showing keen interest in acquiring Israel’s Iron Beam technology, a laser-based missile and drone defense system. This interest underscores a growing recognition of shared security concerns and a willingness to explore collaborative defense solutions. The United States has also been actively involved in strikes against Iranian missile sites, including the use of 5,000-pound bunker-buster bombs near the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite these developments, a significant obstacle remains: a deep-seated lack of trust in the current Israeli government. While past leaders, like Benjamin Netanyahu in his earlier years, were viewed favorably in some Gulf states for their hawkish stance on Iran, the current coalition government, particularly the influence of far-right ministers like Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, has eroded that trust. Many Gulf leaders now perceive the current Israeli government as unpredictable and potentially destabilizing.

The Palestinian Question and Diminished Prospects for Normalization

The ongoing conflict in Gaza and the Israeli government’s handling of the Palestinian issue have further strained relations. Netanyahu’s “ruthless prosecution of the war in Gaza,” which has resulted in over seventy thousand Palestinian deaths, has alienated many in the Gulf. The perception that Netanyahu is beholden to extremist elements within his coalition has fueled skepticism about Israel’s commitment to a two-state solution and any genuine effort towards regional peace.

This shift in sentiment has significantly dampened prospects for further normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. A deal that once seemed within reach now appears increasingly distant, as Saudi Arabia demands more concessions from Israel than the current government is willing or able to offer. Recent surveys indicate a dramatic decline in positive sentiment towards establishing diplomatic ties with Israel among the Saudi population, with only one percent viewing it as a positive step compared to forty-one percent five years ago.

What’s on the Horizon?

The immediate future remains uncertain. While the Gulf states are unlikely to openly join a military coalition against Iran, increased military cooperation and technological integration with the U.S. And Israel are probable. The key question is whether Israel can rebuild trust with its Gulf neighbors and address their concerns about its long-term intentions. The current trajectory suggests a more fragmented and volatile Middle East, where regional powers are hedging their bets and seeking to navigate a complex geopolitical landscape. The war has served as a “rude awakening” for Gulf states, but whether it translates into a lasting shift in alliances remains to be seen.

The situation is further complicated by ongoing attacks. Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base was recently hit by a ballistic missile, though no injuries were reported. These incidents underscore the escalating risks and the potential for further escalation in the region.