IndieWire’s Screen Talk: 2026 Oscar Predictions – ‘One Battle After Another’ vs. ‘Sinners’ & ‘The Bride’ Review

The race for Oscar gold is heating up, and according to veteran critic Anne Thompson, it’s shaping up to be a particularly tight contest between two frontrunners: Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” and Warner Bros.’ “Sinners.” The question isn’t just if these films will win, but how many Oscars each might take home. Thompson shared her insights on IndieWire’s “Screen Talk” podcast, offering a glimpse into the potential outcomes as voting nears its close.

While awards season often feels predictable, this year presents a genuine competition. “One Battle After Another” initially gained momentum and maintained it through various precursor awards, while “Sinners” has seen a surge in support, particularly after winning the SAG Award for Ensemble and a Best Actor win for Michael B. Jordan. The Best Picture race is proving to be a real nail-biter.

“Sinners” and “One Battle After Another”: A Closer Glance

“Sinners,” a period vampire musical from Warner Bros., is currently projected to amass a staggering 14 nominations – potentially tying or even breaking the longstanding record of 14 nominations held by “Titanic,” “La La Land,” and “All About Eve.” This projection is based on recent guild results and international awards momentum. “One Battle After Another,” Anderson’s politically charged adaptation, isn’t far behind, with estimates placing it around 12 nominations. The film’s early peak and continued success across precursor awards suggest a strong showing at the ceremony.

The dynamic between these two films is particularly engaging. The podcast discussion centered on whether the sustained goodwill surrounding Michael B. Jordan’s performance in “Sinners” can outweigh the campaign momentum behind Timothée Chalamet for “Marty Supreme.” It’s a question of narrative versus strategic campaigning, and the outcome remains to be seen.

Beyond the Best Picture Contenders: Sure Bets and Dark Horses

While “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another” dominate the conversation, other films are similarly poised for success. “Avatar: Fire and Ash” is considered a lock for Best Visual Effects, while Netflix’s “Frankenstein” is expected to collect a “bevy of crafts honors” – awards recognizing technical achievements in areas like costume design, makeup, and production design. “The Perfect Neighbor” is also predicted to win Best Documentary.

The Best International Feature category is less certain, with a split between Best Picture nominees “Sentimental Value” and “The Secret Agent.” Anne Thompson believes Stellan Skarsgård will take home the Best Supporting Actor Oscar for his role in “Sentimental Value,” while Ryan Lattanzio predicts a win for Sean Penn for “One Battle After Another,” despite Penn’s controversial reputation within Hollywood. Penn has already secured wins at the SAG and BAFTA awards, bolstering his chances.

Warner Bros.’ Dominance and the “Bride!” Factor

Warner Bros. Appears to be having a particularly strong awards season, with both “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another” leading the pack. The studio strategically moved Maggie Gyllenhaal’s “The Bride!” from a fall 2025 release to spring 2026, seemingly to avoid competition with “Frankenstein” and distance it from the troubled release of “Joker: Folie à Deux.” “The Bride!”, a quasi-horror, quasi-musical feminist opera, is described as an ambitious but messy film, and is not expected to be a major awards contender.

The studio’s decision highlights the complexities of release scheduling and the strategic maneuvering involved in awards season. Moving “The Bride!” allowed Warner Bros. To focus its resources on its more promising contenders, “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another.”

Looking Ahead: Nomination Morning and Beyond

The Academy Awards nominations will be announced on January 22nd, revealing the official slate of contenders. Thompson emphasizes that last-minute swings are still possible, particularly for the final Best Picture slot. The next week will be crucial as voters finalize their choices.

Thompson will share her final Oscar predictions in all categories on IndieWire next week, providing a comprehensive overview of the potential winners. The podcast episode also touched on other films in contention, including “Hamnet” (Focus), which is expected to perform well at BAFTA, and “Marty Supreme” (A24), which has garnered support from key guilds like SAG and the DGA. Neon also has a strong presence with five films in the running, increasing its chances of multiple nominations.

The 98th Academy Awards promise to be a captivating event, with a compelling Best Picture race and a wealth of talented nominees. The outcome remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: Warner Bros. Is positioned for a significant night, and the battle between “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another” will be one to watch.

You can listen to the full “Screen Talk” podcast episode here.