Oscar Best Director Race: Anderson Leads Safdie, Zhao & Coogler

The race for Best Director at the 2026 Academy Awards is shaping up to be a fascinating contest, with a blend of established names and fresh faces vying for the coveted prize. While early predictions favored veterans like Guillermo del Toro and Yorgos Lanthimos, a late surge from Josh Safdie has complicated matters, though all signs currently point to Paul Thomas Anderson taking home the award for his work on One Battle After Another.

A Latecomer’s Momentum

At the complete of 2025, the field looked quite different. Del Toro, fresh off Frankenstein, and Lanthimos, with Bugonia under his belt, were considered frontrunners. However, the December release of Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme, and the subsequent Oscar buzz surrounding Timothée Chalamet’s performance, dramatically shifted the conversation. Safdie’s first solo directorial effort since splitting with his brother Benny in 2024 represents a significant moment in his career, and his first nomination in any category is a testament to the film’s impact.

The Established Contenders

Joachim Trier similarly enters the fray with Sentimental Value, a story of familial reconnection starring Stellan Skarsgård. While Trier received a screenplay nomination for The Worst Person in the World in 2021, this marks his first nomination for directing. Though Sentimental Value has garnered four acting nominations, it’s unlikely to translate into a win for Trier himself. The film does, however, have a strong chance of being recognized as Best International Feature, and is currently available to stream on Mubi.

Chloé Zhao, a previous Oscar winner for Nomadland in 2021 – becoming only the second woman to achieve this feat after Kathryn Bigelow’s win for The Hurt Locker in 2010 – returns to the directing category with Hamnet. This adaptation of Maggie O’Farrell’s novel explores the tragic death of Shakespeare’s son and its impact on his family. While Zhao’s nomination is significant, the film’s strongest Oscar prospects lie with Jessie Buckley, whose performance as Agnes, Shakespeare’s wife, is widely considered a frontrunner for Best Actress.

Coogler’s Historic Nomination

Ryan Coogler, known for his work on the Creed franchise and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, receives his first director nomination for the horror film Sinners. This nomination is particularly noteworthy as Coogler becomes only the seventh Black director to be nominated for the award, following in the footsteps of John Singleton (Boyz n the Hood, 1992), Lee Daniels (Precious), Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave), Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Jordan Peele (Get Out), and Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman). Sinners has garnered a record-breaking 16 Oscar nominations suggesting potential wins in other categories alongside Coogler’s original screenplay, which blends horror with themes of racism and vampirism in 1930s Mississippi.

Anderson’s Time to Shine

Despite a decorated career, Paul Thomas Anderson has yet to win an Academy Award, despite 14 nominations. This year, however, appears to be his moment. His black comedy thriller, One Battle After Another, has swept the major awards bodies, including the Golden Globes, the Directors Guild of America, and, most recently, the BAFTA Awards. The film, starring Leonardo DiCaprio and Sean Penn, centers on a former revolutionary on the run from his past. Anderson is also nominated for Best Film and Best Adapted Screenplay, further solidifying his position as the favorite.

What’s Next for the Nominees?

The Academy Awards ceremony on March 15th will ultimately determine the winner, but the momentum clearly favors Paul Thomas Anderson. Regardless of the outcome, this year’s nominees represent a diverse and talented group of filmmakers, each with a unique vision and a compelling story to tell. For those interested in exploring their work further, Hamnet is available for streaming, while Sentimental Value can be found on Mubi. The British Academy Film Awards website offers further details on the nominated films and filmmakers. And for a deeper dive into the awards season, NJArts.net provides ongoing coverage of the contenders.

Following the awards, each director is expected to embark on new projects. Safdie is reportedly already developing his next solo venture, while Zhao is exploring potential collaborations with several prominent actors. Coogler is expected to return to the Black Panther universe, and Anderson has hinted at a possible foray into television. The future of these filmmakers remains bright, and their contributions to the art of cinema are sure to continue for years to come. You can find more information about upcoming projects on The Hollywood Reporter.