Oscar Predictions 2024: Teyana Taylor & Paul Thomas Anderson Lead the Pack | Vanity Fair

The BAFTA Awards, often seen as a bellwether for the Oscars, have thrown the best actor race into delightful disarray. While Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another dominated the night with six wins, including Best Film and Best Director, the supporting acting categories proved far more unpredictable. As the Academy Awards voting opens this week, the question isn’t just who will win, but who can win – and the BAFTAs have widened the field considerably.

Sean Penn’s Momentum

After securing both an Actor Award and a BAFTA for his performance in One Battle After Another, Sean Penn is currently considered the frontrunner for the Best Supporting Actor Oscar. His portrayal of Colonel Steven J. Lockjaw has been widely praised, despite Penn’s limited participation in the awards circuit. A single interview with Vanity Fair didn’t seem to deter voters, and the character’s impact appears to be resonating with awards bodies. The initial concern that his reluctance to actively campaign might hurt his chances now seems unfounded.

A Wide-Open Supporting Actress Race

The Best Supporting Actress category, however, is a different story. The BAFTA win for Wunmi Mosaku for her role in Sinners has injected new energy into that film’s Oscar campaign, but she’s far from a lock. Teyana Taylor, who previously won the Golden Globe for her performance in One Battle After Another, remains a strong contender. Amy Madigan’s victory at the Actor Awards for Weapons further complicates matters. As Variety noted, this race is unusually unpredictable, reminiscent of Tilda Swinton’s surprise win for Michael Clayton years ago.

Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, both nominated for Sentimental Value, are considered less likely to win, as they haven’t secured major precursor awards and may split the vote among fans of that film. The competition between Madigan, Taylor, and Mosaku is truly anyone’s guess, with each actress bringing a unique strength to their respective roles.

Paul Thomas Anderson’s Long-Awaited Oscar?

For Paul Thomas Anderson, the BAFTA win for Best Adapted Screenplay for One Battle After Another feels particularly significant. Despite 14 Oscar nominations throughout his career, Anderson has never taken home a statuette. His adaptation of Thomas Pynchon’s novel is being lauded for seamlessly updating the source material for a modern audience. The strength of his screenplay, combined with the lack of a particularly strong competitor in the category, makes him a clear favorite to finally win an Oscar this year. Some might even say it’s time for a few small beers in his honor.

Ryan Coogler’s Original Vision

The Best Original Screenplay category also has a frontrunner: Ryan Coogler for Sinners. His screenplay has garnered critical acclaim and is contributing to the film’s growing momentum. The other nominees – Robert Kaplow for Blue Moon, Jafar Panahi (with collaborators) for It Was Just an Accident, Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme, and Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value – all represent strong work, but Coogler’s script appears to have the edge.

The “Sinners” Surge and “Marty Supreme’s” Struggles

Sinners is proving to be a dark horse contender, gaining traction after Mosaku’s BAFTA win and Coogler’s screenplay award. The film’s score, composed by Ludwig Göransson, also received a BAFTA trophy, further solidifying its position. Conversely, Marty Supreme, despite receiving 11 nominations, was shut out entirely at the BAFTAs, tying the record for most losses in a single night. Even Timothée Chalamet’s performance in the film failed to garner recognition, with Robert Aramayo winning the lead actor BAFTA for I Swear.

What Comes Next: Oscar Voting and Beyond

With Oscar voting opening on Thursday, February 26th, the BAFTA results have undeniably reshaped the narrative. While One Battle After Another remains a strong contender for Best Picture and several other awards, the supporting acting races are now wide open. The technical awards, particularly for One Battle After Another, will be crucial in maintaining momentum. The next few days will be critical as Academy members cast their ballots, and the final outcome remains uncertain. The awards season, as Variety position it, is “fractured, unpredictable, and thrilling chaos” – and the Oscars promise to be no exception.

The BAFTA’s impact extends beyond individual wins. it’s a reminder that the awards season is rarely a straightforward path. The British Academy’s voting body often charts its own course, honoring both British projects and artistic merit. This year, that has resulted in a more competitive and unpredictable race for the Oscars, leaving audiences eagerly anticipating the final results.