US-Israel Conflict: Will Ammunition Limits Determine the War’s Length?

The Ammunition Equation in the Middle East Conflict

The escalating conflict in the Middle East isn’t just a question of will, but of sustainment. As the US and Israel continue their campaign against Iran, and Iran responds with missile and drone attacks, a critical constraint is emerging: ammunition. The current situation resembles an expensive arms race, with both sides facing mounting strain on their stockpiles and production capabilities. The question of how long each side can continue firing – and defending against – these attacks is becoming increasingly central to the trajectory of the conflict.

Recent reports indicate a shift in Iran’s strategy, adapting to the pressure from US and Israeli strikes. Rather than attempting large-scale, destructive attacks, Iran is focusing on spreading out targets, relying more heavily on cheaper drones, and aiming to inflict psychological and economic pain. This includes targeting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, as evidenced by attacks on three ships on Wednesday, in an effort to disrupt a key global energy chokepoint. CBS News reports that President Trump has vowed to end the war soon, while Iran’s foreign minister has stated their military will fight “as long as it takes.”

Degradation of Iranian Capabilities

While Iran continues to launch attacks – thousands of missiles and one-way attack drones at 13 countries, resulting in at least 43 deaths, including seven US servicemembers, according to data compiled by the Israeli think tank INSS – the US military reports a significant degradation of their launch capacity. Missile launches are down 90 percent, and drone launches are down 83 percent since the start of the conflict. This suggests that heavy US and Israeli bombardment of Iran’s missile facilities is taking a toll. More than 1,200 people have been killed in Iran as a result of US and Israeli attacks, and much of the country’s military and political infrastructure has been damaged.

Iran has been utilizing a network of “missile cities” – vast underground facilities – to protect its arsenal. However, these facilities have been heavily targeted, and while mobile launchers initially proved tricky to destroy, the US has employed bunker buster bombs to collapse entrances and bury missiles underground. Israel estimates it has destroyed or buried around 70 percent of Iran’s missile launchers, though the accuracy of this estimate remains unconfirmed.

The Cost of Interception

Despite high interception rates – reportedly over 90 percent – the cost of defending against Iran’s attacks is staggering. Interceptors like the Patriot and THAAD systems are among the world’s most sophisticated and in-demand weapons, and their use is depleting Western stockpiles. The US reportedly burned through an estimated $2.4 billion worth of Patriot interceptors in the first five days of the conflict, with each interceptor costing around $4 million. During a previous conflict in June, the US used approximately a quarter of its total stock of THAAD interceptors, and only around 11 are produced annually. The US is reportedly moving parts of a THAAD system from South Korea to the Middle East, coinciding with missile tests from North Korea, highlighting the global implications of this strain on defense resources.

Experts like Sam Lair of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies point out the economic reality of missile defense: “You’re on the wrong side of the cost curve if you are doing missile defense in the first place… Interceptors are expensive, they don’t have very many of them, and not many of them are produced each year.” This situation is impacting other regions as well, with European officials reporting that interceptors needed for the war in Ukraine are being diverted to the Middle East.

Iran’s Shifting Tactics and Objectives

Iran’s attacks are increasingly focused on inflicting economic and psychological pain rather than achieving significant military gains. They have targeted infrastructure in Gulf states and even luxury hotels in Dubai, and have attempted to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This strategy may be aimed at pressuring regional governments to push for a ceasefire or at creating broader instability. Iran has also begun using missiles fitted with cluster munitions, which are difficult to intercept but pose a long-term threat to civilians due to unexploded bomblets.

While Iran’s conventional military is overmatched, its stockpile of missiles and drones remains a significant asset. Prior to the recent escalation, Iran was believed to have between 2,000 and 3,000 missiles, and despite losses, they have been working to replenish their stockpiles. They also have a substantial drone production capacity, estimated at around 10,000 per month before the war, though this has likely been reduced.

What Comes Next?

The duration of the conflict will likely depend on a complex interplay of factors, including the rate of ammunition consumption, the ability of both sides to replenish their stockpiles, and the political calculations of key decision-makers. The US and Israel are focused on degrading Iran’s capabilities, while Iran appears to be aiming for a protracted conflict that will raise the costs for its adversaries. The outcome may hinge on whether Trump decides the economic and political costs of continuing the war outweigh the perceived benefits, or if Iran’s ability to sustain its attacks diminishes to the point where it is forced to negotiate. The situation remains fluid, and the potential for escalation remains high.