AI Strategies: Global South’s Critical Minerals Leverage

The burgeoning field of artificial intelligence isn’t simply a matter of code and algorithms; it’s deeply entwined with the physical world, and increasingly, with geopolitics. A recent report highlights a critical, often overlooked dimension of AI governance: the strategic importance of critical minerals. While many nations in the Global Majority – a term encompassing economically developing countries across Africa, Asia, Latin America, the Caribbean, the Middle East, and Oceania – are developing national AI strategies, few are adequately addressing how to leverage their own mineral wealth within this rapidly evolving landscape.

The issue isn’t simply about having access to these materials, but about embedding their strategic value into the particularly framework of AI development and governance. As competition for computing infrastructure intensifies, the mineral reserves held by Global Majority countries represent potential leverage points for reshaping their position in the global AI value chain. This isn’t a future concern; it’s a present reality, with implications for economic independence and national security.

The Hidden Foundation of AI: A Mineral Dependency

The AI revolution, like many technological advancements, relies on a surprisingly small set of materials. These aren’t the household names like gold or silver, but rather a collection of “critical minerals” – elements essential for modern technology and deemed vital to U.S. Economic and national security under the Energy Act of 2020. An issue brief by FP Analytics, supported by JCDREAM, details how AI development is driving demand for minerals like gallium, germanium, copper, palladium, indium, tantalum, rare earth elements (REE), silicon, and high-purity alumina. These minerals are fundamental to the production of advanced semiconductors and the massive data centers that power AI systems.

The concentration of control over these minerals is a significant vulnerability. China, for example, currently dominates the production of several key elements. Specifically, China controls 98 percent of global primary gallium production and 60 percent of germanium refining. This level of dominance creates supply chain risks that, according to the FP Analytics report, “dwarf even the well-documented risks in battery supply chains.” The reliance on a single source for these essential materials could severely constrain AI development and deployment for nations dependent on those supplies.

Geopolitical Implications and the AI Supply Chain

The Institute for Advanced Study convened a workshop in June 2025 specifically addressing “The Geopolitics of Critical Minerals and the AI Supply Chain.” This workshop underscored how the emergence of general AI is reshaping the geopolitical landscape and altering trade flows at a crucial moment. The competition for these critical minerals isn’t simply an economic issue; it’s a key component of the broader struggle for technological supremacy.

The situation is further complicated by the fact that many of these minerals are often found in regions with existing political instability or weak governance. This creates additional challenges for securing reliable and ethical supply chains. The need for diversification and resilience in these supply chains is paramount, and Global Majority countries with significant mineral reserves are uniquely positioned to play a central role.

Beyond Extraction: Adding Value and Building Leverage

Simply possessing mineral reserves isn’t enough. The Science report emphasizes that Global Majority countries must move beyond simply extracting and exporting raw materials. The real opportunity lies in developing domestic capabilities to process, refine, and manufacture components for the AI industry. This would not only create jobs and stimulate economic growth but similarly increase their bargaining power in the global market.

This requires strategic investment in infrastructure, education, and research and development. It also necessitates fostering international partnerships to share knowledge and technology. It demands a proactive approach to environmental sustainability and responsible mining practices, ensuring that the benefits of AI development are not achieved at the expense of environmental degradation or social injustice.

The Role of National AI Strategies

The increasing number of national AI strategies adopted by Global Majority countries is a positive step, but many of these frameworks currently lack a comprehensive focus on critical minerals. Integrating mineral resource management into these strategies is essential. This includes conducting thorough assessments of domestic mineral reserves, developing policies to attract investment in processing and manufacturing facilities, and establishing regulatory frameworks that promote responsible mining practices.

these strategies should prioritize the development of a skilled workforce capable of supporting the AI industry. This requires investing in STEM education and training programs, as well as fostering collaboration between universities, research institutions, and the private sector.

What Comes Next: Strengthening Supply Chain Resilience

Addressing this challenge requires a multi-faceted approach. Policymakers in Washington State and beyond, as highlighted by the FP Analytics brief, need to focus on strengthening reliable and diverse supply chains. This includes diversifying sources of critical minerals, investing in domestic processing capacity, and promoting international cooperation. The Science report suggests that Global Majority countries must actively recognize their mineral reserves as leverage points for improving their position in the global AI value chain.

Further research is needed to fully understand the complex interplay between critical minerals, AI development, and geopolitical dynamics. Ongoing monitoring of supply chain vulnerabilities and emerging technologies will be crucial for informing policy decisions and ensuring a sustainable and equitable AI future. The conversation needs to expand beyond simply securing access to minerals and focus on building resilient, diversified, and responsible supply chains that benefit all stakeholders.

the AI revolution presents both opportunities and challenges for Global Majority countries. By strategically leveraging their mineral resources and integrating them into their national AI strategies, these nations can position themselves as key players in the future of this transformative technology.