Andalusian Election Outlook: Sánchez’s “No to War” & Potential Vote Alignment

PSOE in Andalusia Revitalized by Sánchez’s Stance on War, Eyes Joint Elections

The four words uttered by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez last Wednesday – “No a la guerra” (No to the war) – have dramatically lifted spirits within the Andalusian branch of the PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party). This surge in morale comes at a time when polling data has consistently indicated a challenging path forward for the party in the region. The possibility of coordinating regional and general elections is now widely desired within the PSOE of Andalusia, though no decision has been made.

Until recently, the mood within the Andalusian PSOE had been bleak. Four polls published over the past few months show a consistent trend: the PP (People’s Party) would win the upcoming Andalusian elections, potentially falling just short of an absolute majority (55 of 109 seats – they currently hold 58); the PSOE would continue to decline, potentially reaching a low of 30 seats; Vox would rise and close in on the PSOE as the second-largest force; and the fragmented left-wing alternatives – Por Andalucía, Adelante Andalucía, and Podemos – might not even achieve parliamentary group status. The Centro de Estudios Andaluces is currently conducting its quarterly survey, expected to be released in April.

The PSOE does not publicly dispute the data released by private and public polling companies. Internal analysis suggests potential for government formation, despite unfavorable numbers. “There is no poll telling us we will be at 40 seats, but Notice ranges with analysis of the right and left blocs that provide us options for governing,” stated a member of the Andalusian executive.

The current context includes escalating tensions with the United States and Israel regarding Iran, the Spanish government’s refusal to authorize the use of military bases in Andalusia (Morón de la Frontera and Rota) for operations lacking international legal backing, and the ongoing challenges faced by Vice President and PSOE candidate for the Andalusian regional government, María Jesús Montero, in securing support for the budget. The left-wing parties are attempting to find common ground, while the current Andalusian President, Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla, has indicated he may dissolve parliament in April, calling elections for June, though some within his party favor an earlier date of May 10th.

These factors have led many Andalusian PSOE leaders to speculate that Pedro Sánchez might be considering holding the general election concurrently with the regional vote. While this remains speculation, the desire for such a move is widespread within the Andalusian PSOE. “I said no three days ago, but now I don’t rule it out. Pedro Sánchez is unpredictable and unpredictable. Historically, general elections increase participation in Andalusia, and the 80% of the progressive vote is the most abstentionist. María Jesús Montero is aware of this; that analysis has been done,” explained a prominent member of the Andalusian PSOE executive.

Data supports the idea that combined elections boost participation in Andalusia. Turnout exceeded 70% in 1996 (77.94%), 2004 (74.66%), and 2008 (72.67%) when the elections were held on the same day. Conversely, turnout dips in standalone regional elections, as seen in 2018 (56.5%) and 2022 (58.3%).

Another key consideration is the data from past elections. In the Andalusian regional elections of June 2022, the PSOE suffered its worst-ever result, securing 30 seats, 24% of the vote, and 883,707 votes. A year later, in the July 2023 general election, the Socialists garnered 33.4% and 1,467,501 votes in Andalusia. Montero’s campaign hopes to capture the 583,794 votes that remained uncast in the regional election. Some within the party believe a frequent presence of Pedro Sánchez on the campaign trail would be beneficial. “There is no one better to create tension and polarization,” they stated.

There is also a belief that if Sánchez delays calling a general election until 2027, as he has publicly stated, the situation could worsen. Concerns include the likely rejection of the state budget, potential inflation driven by the war, and the risk of a significant defeat in Andalusia further weakening the government’s position. “I don’t see the context being better in 2027,” one leader commented, adding, “Pedro Sánchez only thinks about himself and will only do what benefits him.”

Sources indicate that these opinions are generally expressed informally, as few are willing to openly discuss the matter within party structures. “These are reflections over coffee,” as one source put it, “as no one dares to raise it openly.” A deputy noted the current atmosphere within the PSOE is volatile.

There are no reports of wavering commitment from the PSOE’s regional secretary general and candidate for the regional government, María Jesús Montero, who has increased her presence in Andalusia in recent weeks. Montero is expected to leave her position in the national government when the Andalusian parliament is dissolved, and while the PP has suggested she will not grab her seat if she loses, sources close to the Vice President insist she will remain in parliament for the full term.

Montero has issued two directives to the party. She has postponed discussions regarding the composition of electoral lists until an election is officially called. The initial proposals for these lists are made by provincial executive committees, with the final decision resting with the regional leadership. “The only certainty is that Montero will head the list in Seville,” sources within the Andalusian executive confirmed.

In line with an offer to involve former Andalusian President Susana Díaz in the campaign, Montero has instructed that “everyone who can add votes should actively participate,” including Manuel Chaves and José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero.