Australians Divided on US-Israel Actions & Australia’s Response – New Poll

Australian Public Opinion Cools on US-Israel War on Iran, Poll Reveals

Only a quarter of Australians approve of the US-Israel war on Iran, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll, signaling growing public reservations about the conflict and Australia’s involvement. The poll, conducted last week with 1,008 respondents, found 43% disapprove of the US and Israeli military actions, whereas 26% offer support and 31% remain unsure. This comes as Australia continues to assess its military presence in the region, with Defence Minister Richard Marles declining to rule out extending the deployment of an E-7 Wedgetail surveillance aircraft currently stationed in the United Arab Emirates.

The Essential poll highlights a complex public sentiment, balancing support for defending allies with a clear desire to avoid deeper entanglement in a volatile situation. Beyond the conflict itself, the survey reveals a notable shift in Australian foreign policy preferences, with a growing appetite for closer ties with “middle powers” like Canada and Japan, and a significant portion of the population expressing a desire to distance Australia from the United States.

Public Discomfort with Australia’s Response

The poll also gauged public opinion on the Australian government’s response to the escalating tensions. While 34% approve of the government’s actions – including sending the Wedgetail aircraft and approximately 85 defence personnel to the UAE – a substantial 25% disapprove, and 40% are undecided. This uncertainty is reflected in responses regarding specific potential contributions to the conflict.

Just 32% support the government’s decision to send missiles and the Wedgetail aircraft, while 35% oppose it. Support dwindles further when considering more direct involvement: 37% would back naval support to secure oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, but only 21% would support sending Australian troops into ground operations. Conversely, 30% oppose naval support and a significant 50% oppose ground troops.

A Shift Towards “Middle Power” Diplomacy

Perhaps the most striking finding of the Essential poll is the growing desire among Australians for a recalibration of the nation’s foreign policy priorities. A clear majority – 60% – believe Australia should prioritize working with international organizations to pursue peace talks and prevent further escalation in the Middle East. 37% support offering refuge to civilians displaced by the war.

The poll also reveals a preference for strengthening relationships with countries beyond traditional allies. While 35% believe Australia should prioritize its relationship with the US, a much larger 65% favor strengthening ties with Canada, South Korea, and Japan. This sentiment aligns with recent discussions about Australia forging closer strategic partnerships with nations that share similar values and interests, but may not be directly involved in the escalating conflict. The recent visit of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, and discussions around collaboration between Australia and Canada as “strategic cousins,” underscore this emerging trend.

What the Numbers Mean: A Deeper Dive

The numbers reveal a nuanced public mood. The 43% disapproval of the US-Israel war on Iran is significant, indicating a level of discomfort with the conflict’s trajectory. The high percentage of “don’t knows” (31%) suggests a degree of public confusion or a lack of readily available information about the complexities of the situation.

The 40% of respondents unsure about the government’s response highlights a lack of clear public consensus on Australia’s role in the region. This uncertainty likely stems from the Albanese government’s careful messaging, emphasizing a “purely defensive” posture and avoiding direct participation in offensive operations.

The preference for “middle power” diplomacy – with strong support for closer ties with Canada, Japan, and South Korea – suggests a desire for Australia to pursue a more independent foreign policy, less reliant on the United States. This aligns with a broader trend of questioning the traditional US alliance and exploring alternative partnerships.

The Wedgetail Deployment and Future Commitments

Defence Minister Richard Marles has been cautious about committing to an extended deployment of the E-7 Wedgetail, stating that the government will “assess that as we get closer to the end of the period.” The aircraft, initially deployed for four weeks, is currently providing surveillance support in the Gulf region, feeding information into the Combined Air Operations Centre in Qatar. While the government maintains the Wedgetail is not directly involved in the Iran conflict, its presence underscores Australia’s commitment to regional security and its close military ties with the United States.

Marles also declined to comment on whether Australia would contribute to a potential naval mission in the Strait of Hormuz, stating that the government would “work through that with our friends and allies.” This ambiguity reflects the government’s cautious approach, balancing its commitment to supporting allies with a desire to avoid escalating the conflict.

Political Implications and the Road Ahead

The Essential poll results present a challenge for the Albanese government as it navigates a complex geopolitical landscape and prepares for upcoming budget deliberations. The public’s lukewarm support for the US-Israel war on Iran, coupled with the growing desire for closer ties with “middle powers,” suggests a need for a more nuanced and independent foreign policy approach.

According to Peter Lewis, the executive director of Essential Media, “The US strikes on Iran are supported by the public, but they also seem to be undermining support for the US alliance more generally.” This observation highlights the potential for the conflict to erode public trust in the US alliance and create pressure on the government to diversify its foreign policy partnerships.

As the situation in the Middle East continues to evolve, the Albanese government will need to carefully balance its commitments to allies with the growing public desire for a more independent and pragmatic foreign policy. The Essential poll provides a valuable snapshot of public sentiment, offering insights into the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.