CA Governor’s Race: Democrats Defy Calls to Drop Out, Risking GOP Advance

SACRAMENTO — A plea from the California Democratic Party chair for underperforming gubernatorial candidates to withdraw from the race has largely gone unheeded, raising anxieties about a potential Republican breakthrough in the November general election. The situation highlights the challenges facing Democrats in a state where they hold significant power, but where voter apathy and a crowded primary field could open the door for the opposition.

Rusty Hicks, the state party chairman, urged candidates he believed lacked a “viable path to win” to drop out of the race, fearing a fractured Democratic vote in the June primary could allow two Republicans to advance. However, most of the eight top Democratic candidates rebuffed the call, signaling a determination to continue their campaigns despite the party’s concerns. This resistance underscores a shift in California politics, where the influence of traditional party bosses has diminished.

The deadline to officially file for the ballot has passed, with Friday marking the final day for candidates to appear on the June primary election ballot. The Secretary of State’s office will formally announce the list of candidates on March 21. The decision by most candidates to remain in the race, despite the party’s concerns, has prompted debate about the state of the Democratic Party and the dynamics of the gubernatorial election.

Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa dismissed Hicks’ letter as having little impact, stating most candidates filed paperwork within 24 hours of receiving it. He argued that many voters remain undecided, making it premature to consider withdrawing from the race. This sentiment reflects a broader belief among some candidates that they still have a chance to gain traction with voters as the primary election approaches.

Democratic strategist Elizabeth Ashford noted that Hicks’ public plea was appropriate, given the stakes of the election, but also acknowledged the limited power of the modern-day Democratic Party in California. She compared the situation to the historical dominance of Tammany Hall in New York City, emphasizing that the current party structure is far less capable of “outright public strong-arming” of candidates. Ashford, who has worked for prominent figures like Jerry Brown and Kamala Harris, suggested the relative weakness of the California Republican Party also contributes to the Democrats’ willingness to compete in a crowded primary.

A Shift in Power Dynamics

The limited response to Hicks’ request highlights a significant shift in California politics. The state’s Democratic dominance – with registered Democrats outnumbering Republicans almost 2-to-1 and controlling all statewide offices and legislative supermajorities – has diminished the traditional power of party leaders to dictate candidate behavior. This shift is further evidenced by the fact that only one of the nine major Democratic candidates, Ian Calderon, heeded the party chair’s message, withdrawing from the race and endorsing Rep. Eric Swalwell.

The fact that candidates cannot remove their names from the ballot after filing adds to the concern that a crowded primary could still split the Democratic vote. Lorena Gonzalez, head of the California Federation of Labor Unions, expressed concern about the possibility of two Republicans advancing to the general election, but also acknowledged that candidates could still drop out or turn into more viable in the coming weeks. Jodi Hicks, CEO of Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California, echoed these concerns, emphasizing the high stakes of the election.

Republican Confidence and Key Issues

Republican candidate Steve Hilton expressed confidence in his ability to secure a spot in the top two, dismissing the notion that the Democratic Party would allow two Republicans to advance. The candidates recently participated in a gubernatorial forum hosted by the California Association of Realtors, focusing on housing and homeownership. Despite differing ideologies, candidates largely agreed on the necessitate to address California’s housing crisis, where the median single-family home costs over $820,000.

A recent poll by the Public Policy Institute of California found the top five candidates remarkably close in voter support, with Porter, Swalwell, Hilton, hedge fund founder Tom Steyer and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco all within four percentage points of each other. This suggests a high degree of voter indecision and an open race for the governorship.

Concerns About Representation

Some candidates criticized Hicks’ call for candidates to drop out, arguing it disproportionately targeted people of color. State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, who is Black and Latino, accused the California Democratic Party of attempting to exclude candidates of color from the race. This criticism highlights the importance of diversity and representation in the election and the potential for the party’s actions to be perceived as exclusionary.

Financial and Political Indicators

Beyond polling data, other indicators are emerging that could signal which candidates have the momentum. Swalwell received the most support from delegates at the state Democratic convention last month, while Steyer has self-funded his campaign with $47.4 million. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan has also quickly raised millions of dollars, supported by Silicon Valley leaders and independent expenditure committees. These financial resources could prove crucial in reaching voters and shaping the narrative of the election.

Ashford suggested that the candidates’ lengthy political careers and the Democrats’ recent redistricting victory may also be influencing their decisions to remain in the race. “In several cases, these are people who have won statewide office,” she said. “It’s tough to feel like there may not be a sequel to that.”

The situation in California’s gubernatorial race is complex and evolving. The Democratic Party’s attempt to streamline the field has been largely unsuccessful, leaving a crowded primary and raising concerns about a potential Republican victory in November. As the election draws closer, voters will be closely watching the candidates’ strategies and the impact of financial resources and political endorsements.