Canada-India Trade Deal: Could a New Agreement Be Reached?

Carney Seeks to Reset Canada-India Trade Relationship with Comprehensive Economic Partnership

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is currently undertaking a historic four-day visit to India, with a central focus on revitalizing and strengthening ties between the two nations. A key element of this effort is the ongoing negotiation of a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between Canada and India, with the ambitious goal of doubling bilateral trade by 2030. This push comes after a period of strained relations following allegations made by Canada regarding India’s involvement in the killing of a Canadian citizen in 2023. Carney addressed the Canada-India Forum, emphasizing the need for a more strategic partnership and highlighting previous collaborations, including inviting Prime Minister Modi to the G7 Summit and launching a partnership with Australia on critical minerals and technology. The Canadian Prime Minister stated that the CEPA is expected to be signed by the end of 2026, signaling a renewed commitment to economic cooperation. ### A Decade of On-Again, Off-Again Negotiations The pursuit of a robust trade deal between Canada and India has been a long-standing endeavor, spanning over fifteen years of intermittent negotiations. These talks faced significant hurdles and were effectively stalled following Ottawa’s accusations against India in 2023. However, recent shifts in the global landscape and evolving priorities on both sides have created a potential opening for a breakthrough. As noted by Vina Nadjibulla, vice-president of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, Canada currently stands as the only G7 nation without a preferential trade agreement with India. This situation, coupled with India’s recent openness to comprehensive deals with countries like the UK and the European Union, presents a unique opportunity for Canada. You can locate more information about the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada’s work here. ### What Each Side Stands to Gain For Canada, securing a CEPA with India represents a significant opportunity to diversify its trade portfolio and access a rapidly growing market. India’s economic expansion and increasing middle class offer substantial potential for Canadian businesses across various sectors. A trade agreement could strengthen Canada’s position in the Indo-Pacific region and reduce its reliance on existing trade partners. India, views a CEPA with Canada as a means to attract foreign investment, boost its exports and enhance its technological capabilities. Access to Canadian expertise in areas such as clean technology, infrastructure, and education could contribute to India’s sustainable development goals. The agreement would also align with India’s broader strategy of forging closer economic ties with key global partners. ### The Path Forward: How the CEPA Process Works The negotiation of a CEPA is a complex process involving multiple rounds of discussions, technical consultations, and legal reviews. The tenth round of negotiations was held in August 2025, as reported by Global Affairs Canada. Typically, these negotiations cover a wide range of issues, including tariffs, non-tariff barriers, investment rules, intellectual property rights, and dispute resolution mechanisms. Both sides aim to reach a mutually beneficial agreement that addresses their respective concerns and promotes long-term economic growth. Once a draft agreement is finalized, it undergoes ratification by both countries’ parliaments before coming into effect. ### Confirmed vs. Unclear: Current Status of the Deal As of March 2, 2026, the following points are confirmed: * Prime Minister Mark Carney is currently in India to discuss strengthening ties and finalizing the CEPA. * Both Canada and India are actively negotiating the CEPA with a target completion date of the end of 2026. * The goal of the CEPA is to double bilateral trade between Canada and India by 2030. * Previous rounds of negotiations have taken place, with the tenth round occurring in August 2025. The following details remain unclear: * Specific details of the agreement’s provisions regarding tariffs, investment rules, and intellectual property rights have not been publicly disclosed. * The extent to which the previous diplomatic tensions between Canada and India have impacted the current negotiations is not fully known. * The specific sectors that are expected to benefit most from the CEPA have not been definitively identified. ### Political and Strategic Implications The successful conclusion of a CEPA would have significant political and strategic implications for both Canada and India. For Canada, it would demonstrate a commitment to diversifying its trade relationships and strengthening its presence in the Indo-Pacific region. It would also signal a willingness to move beyond recent diplomatic challenges and forge a constructive partnership with a major global player. For India, a CEPA with Canada would reinforce its position as an attractive destination for foreign investment and a key player in the global economy. It would also enhance India’s strategic partnerships and contribute to its broader foreign policy objectives. The agreement could also serve as a model for future trade negotiations with other countries. ### What Happens Next? Following Prime Minister Carney’s visit, negotiations are expected to continue at a rapid pace. Officials from both countries will likely engage in further technical consultations and legal reviews to address outstanding issues and finalize the draft agreement. Once a consensus is reached, the CEPA will be submitted to both parliaments for ratification. The timeline for ratification remains uncertain, but both sides have expressed a strong desire to conclude the agreement by the end of 2026. If ratified, the CEPA is expected to arrive into effect in early 2027, paving the way for increased trade and investment between Canada and India. You can follow updates on the Canada-India relationship through the Canadian government’s official website: Canada-India Relations.