COVID-19 Pandemic Linked to Increased Cancer Deaths: Study Findings

The COVID-19 pandemic’s impact extended far beyond the virus itself, creating a ripple effect that led to an estimated 17,390 more cancer deaths than expected in the United States between 2020 and 2021. A modern analysis, published March 4, 2026, reveals substantial reductions in one-year cancer-specific survival rates during this period, particularly for lung, colorectal, pancreatic, and prostate cancers. The findings underscore the unintended consequences of healthcare system disruptions during a public health crisis and highlight the necessitate for greater resilience in cancer care delivery.

Disruptions to Care and Rising Mortality

Researchers, led by Todd Burus, PhD, of the University of Kentucky College of Medicine, analyzed data from the SEER-21 database, covering approximately 42% of the U.S. Population. The study compared one-year cancer-specific survival rates in 2020 and 2021 to projections based on pre-pandemic data from 2015 to 2019. The results showed a concerning trend: while overall one-year survival rates slightly increased from 84.84% in 2020 to 85.69% in 2021, this increase was lower than anticipated based on historical trends.

Specifically, the analysis revealed that 143,577 patients died of cancer within 12 months of diagnosis during the study period. The researchers calculated that approximately 9,162 more cancer deaths occurred than expected in 2020, and 8,228 more in 2021, totaling over 17,000 excess deaths. These findings suggest that delays in diagnosis and treatment, coupled with strain on healthcare resources, contributed to poorer outcomes for cancer patients.

Which Cancers Were Most Affected?

The impact of the pandemic wasn’t uniform across all cancer types. Lung cancer saw a particularly significant increase in mortality, with 1,966 more deaths than expected in 2021. Pancreatic cancer also experienced a substantial rise in deaths in both 2020 (333 more deaths) and 2021 (652 more deaths). Colorectal and prostate cancers also showed notable increases in mortality during the study period, with 25.4% more deaths from prostate cancer and 16.3% more from colorectal cancer than anticipated.

Interestingly, the study also identified certain cancers where survival rates were less affected. Breast cancer screening, for example, proved remarkably resilient, with rates remaining relatively stable throughout the pandemic. This suggests that targeted screening programs may have been more successful in maintaining continuity of care compared to other cancer types.

Understanding the Data: Limitations and Considerations

It’s important to note the limitations of this study. Researchers used cancer-specific survival, rather than relative survival, which accounts for other causes of death. The study relied on data from the SEER-21 database, which represents approximately 42% of the U.S. Population, potentially limiting the generalizability of the findings.

the study demonstrates a correlation, not causation. While the data strongly suggests a link between the pandemic and increased cancer mortality, it doesn’t definitively prove that the pandemic *caused* these deaths. Other factors, such as changes in healthcare-seeking behavior and pre-existing health disparities, may have also played a role. As Dr. Burus explained, “Survival has been increasing, and mortality has been going down for cancer. Those didn’t just disappear in 2020…We didn’t quit knowing how to treat different types of cancer.”

The Broader Context: Pandemic’s Impact on Cancer Care

This study builds on previous research highlighting the pandemic’s disruption to cancer care. Earlier studies from Burus and colleagues revealed that approximately 130,000 cancer diagnoses were missed during the first 10 months of the pandemic. While diagnosis rates began to recover in 2022, certain cancer sites, such as lung and cervical cancer, continued to lag behind pre-pandemic levels.

The current study adds a critical layer to this understanding by demonstrating that these disruptions translated into measurable increases in cancer mortality. The focus on managing the COVID-19 crisis, while necessary, appears to have come at a cost, diverting resources and attention away from essential cancer care services.

What’s Next: Building a More Resilient Healthcare System

The findings underscore the urgent need to build a more resilient healthcare system capable of withstanding future crises. Dr. Burus emphasizes the importance of re-engaging patients who may have delayed or skipped cancer screenings during the pandemic. He also highlights the need for ongoing evaluation of the pandemic’s long-term impact on cancer outcomes, including assessing the effects on five-year survival rates and identifying disparities in access to care.

Looking ahead, researchers plan to investigate the impact of the pandemic on cancer care in rural communities and explore strategies for improving healthcare system preparedness. The ultimate goal, as Dr. Burus states, is to “save lives, to reduce unnecessary loss of life,” and to ensure that individuals with cancer receive timely and effective care, even in the face of unforeseen challenges.

Further research will also focus on understanding whether diagnostic rates will fully return to normal and how future disruptions – such as natural disasters or workforce shortages – can be mitigated to prevent similar impacts on cancer care. The lessons learned from the COVID-19 pandemic must inform efforts to strengthen the healthcare system and protect vulnerable populations.