Cuba Military Readiness: US Intervention Risks & Potential Outcomes

Havana is preparing its armed forces amid heightened tensions with the United States, despite grappling with a severe economic crisis and energy collapse. The move follows hints from former U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting a potential intervention on the island, prompting Cuban officials to vow a staunch defense of their sovereignty.

“Our armed forces are always prepared and, in fact, are preparing these days for the possibility of military aggression,” Cuban Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío told U.S. News outlet NBC News on March 22, 2026. This statement echoes a prior pledge by Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel of an inexpugnable resistance against any external aggression.

The declarations from Havana are striking given the country’s current internal struggles, including a crippling energy crisis and deep socioeconomic challenges. The question arises whether Cuba is attempting to rally patriotic sentiment in the face of a potential U.S. Intervention, or if the rhetoric is merely a byproduct of ongoing discussions between the governments of Donald Trump and Miguel Díaz-Canel.

How Likely is Intervention?

Although the situation is fraught with tension, experts suggest a full-scale military confrontation remains unlikely. “A military confrontation seems improbable,” argues Bert Hoffmann, principal investigator at the German Institute for Global and Regional Studies (GIGA). “The United States is betting on a policy of strangulation, blocking all access to oil for Cuba. It is a cynical strategy, deliberately creating an emergency situation for the people in Cuba.”

Daniel Pedreira, a visiting assistant professor in the Department of Politics and International Relations at Florida International University (FIU), shares a similar assessment. “Cuba has exceptionally limited military defense capabilities,” he states, adding that the U.S. Possesses a significant advantage in terms of weaponry, personnel, technology, military tactics, and intelligence. This would allow any U.S. Intervention to be carried out strategically and surgically.

Yet, Sebastián Arcos, interim director of the Cuban Studies Institute at FIU, presents a more pessimistic outlook. He believes the possibility of military conflict is high, because the United States seeks a regime change and the regime resists ceding power. These are two opposing and conflicting positions, which may ultimately result in military action by the United States.

A Quick Victory for the U.S.?

Experts agree that Cuba’s defense capabilities pale in comparison to the power of the U.S. Armed Forces, but they diverge on the potential duration and development of a conflict. Sebastián Arcos notes that Cuba possesses limited and obsolete weaponry, a demoralized and poorly trained army, and is ill-prepared for a military confrontation with the United States. He also suggests that, given the unpopularity of the regime, Cuban soldiers may offer little resistance.

Arcos envisions a modern, remote war, without landing troops on the island. However, he acknowledges that the ongoing conflict between Israel and the U.S. In Iran has demonstrated that it is very difficult to overthrow a regime without landing troops.

Daniel DePetris, a researcher at the U.S. Feel tank Defense Priorities, points out that the Cuban defense budget is a shadow of what it was during the Cold War; its Air Force is, likewise, lamentable, and operates at the limit of its capabilities. He believes defeating the Cuban army would not be the problem. The real challenge would be to pacify a country of 11 million inhabitants – amid insurgent resistance – while attempting to mitigate a refugee crisis that could overwhelm the coasts of the United States.

The Importance of Guantánamo

DePetris also highlights the significance of Guantánamo Bay as a central node in any U.S. Military scenario. The base is already one of Washington’s most important in the Caribbean region, serving as a fundamental logistical site for the U.S. Navy. However, the base itself is old, deteriorated, and notorious for the poor state of its infrastructure, as openly admitted by the U.S. Southern Command.

In the event of a military conflict with the Cuban government, DePetris argues, reinforcing security around Guantánamo would be unavoidable.

Bert Hoffmann, the German political scientist, does not rule out a swift military victory for the Trump administration initially. However, he insists that the costs of a military occupation could be high afterwards. As long as Washington refrains from a land incursion on the island, he explains, it needs the current state apparatus and security forces to maintain stability in the country. That would give some negotiating capacity to the government in Havana.