Expert Insights: Frank Aum on Global Security Challenges and Solutions

It’s a Tuesday afternoon in Seattle, and the rain is tapping against the windows of coffee shops along Pike Place Market. Inside, locals sip their lattes while scrolling through headlines about U.S. Airstrikes on Iran and the latest murmurs from Pyongyang. The two events might seem worlds apart—one in the Middle East, the other in East Asia—but for residents of this tech-driven, globally connected city, the ripple effects are closer than they reckon. Seattle’s economy, its military installations, and even its vibrant Korean-American community are all tied to the delicate dance of diplomacy between Washington and Pyongyang. And with former President Donald Trump hinting at a return to the White House in 2024, the question on everyone’s mind is: Can Trump still cut a deal with Kim Jong Un after striking Iran?

To answer that, we need to zoom out—way out—and then zoom back in to what it means for Seattle, a city that has quietly become a hub for defense contractors, cybersecurity firms, and a growing number of North Korean defectors and their families. The stakes aren’t just geopolitical; they’re personal, economic, and deeply local.

The Trump-Kim Playbook: What Worked (and What Didn’t)

When Frank Aum, a non-resident fellow at the Stimson Center and a former senior advisor on North Korea at the Department of Defense, sat down to dissect the prospects of renewed U.S.-North Korea diplomacy, he didn’t sugarcoat the challenges. The 2018 Singapore Summit between Trump and Kim Jong Un was historic—no sitting U.S. President had ever met with a North Korean leader—but it as well set a pattern of high-stakes theatrics with little substantive follow-through. The 2019 Hanoi Summit collapsed over sanctions relief, and the working-level talks that followed fizzled out. By the time Trump left office, North Korea’s nuclear arsenal had grown, not shrunk.

Aum’s take? The Trump administration’s approach was a mix of boldness and improvisation. “Trump’s personal diplomacy with Kim was unprecedented, but it lacked a coherent strategy,” Aum noted. “The U.S. Oscillated between maximum pressure and maximum engagement, often leaving allies like South Korea and Japan in the dark.” That unpredictability, he argued, might have been a feature, not a bug, for Trump. But it also meant that when the U.S. Pivoted to other crises—like the 2020 pandemic or, more recently, the strikes on Iran—the North Korea file was left in limbo.

For Seattle, this unpredictability has real-world consequences. The city is home to Boeing’s Defense, Space & Security division, which has contracts tied to regional security in East Asia. The Puget Sound region also hosts Naval Base Kitsap, one of the U.S. Navy’s most critical installations for nuclear submarines. If tensions on the Korean Peninsula escalate, these entities could notice shifts in funding, deployment schedules, or even cybersecurity threats. And then there’s the human element: Seattle’s Korean-American community, one of the largest in the U.S., includes families with ties to both North and South Korea. For them, the stakes of diplomacy—or the lack thereof—are deeply personal.

Iran Strikes and the North Korea Wildcard

The recent U.S. Airstrikes on Iran add another layer of complexity. North Korea has historically viewed Iran as a strategic partner, particularly in the realm of missile technology. While there’s no public evidence that Pyongyang directly supplied Tehran with weapons for its recent attacks on Israel, the two regimes have a long history of military cooperation. In the 1980s and 1990s, North Korea sold Scud missiles to Iran, and more recently, there have been reports of North Korean technicians working in Iran’s ballistic missile program.

Aum cautioned against assuming a direct link between the Iran strikes and North Korea’s calculus. “North Korea is primarily concerned with its own survival,” he said. “But they’re also watching how the U.S. Responds to regional crises. If they perceive the U.S. As distracted or overcommitted, they might see an opportunity to advance their own agenda—whether that’s missile tests, cyberattacks, or even a return to nuclear brinkmanship.”

For Seattle, this could mean a heightened risk of cyber threats. The city is a major hub for tech companies like Microsoft and Amazon, both of which have been targeted by North Korean hacking groups in the past. In 2017, the WannaCry ransomware attack, attributed to North Korea’s Lazarus Group, disrupted hospitals, businesses, and government agencies worldwide—including some in the Pacific Northwest. If Pyongyang decides to flex its cyber muscles again, Seattle’s tech sector could be in the crosshairs.

The Seattle Angle: Why This Matters Locally

Seattle might not be the first city that comes to mind when you think of North Korea, but its connections to the issue run deep. Here’s how the city fits into the broader geopolitical puzzle:

1. Defense and Aerospace: The Boeing Factor

Boeing’s Defense, Space & Security division, headquartered in Arlington, just outside Seattle, is a major player in U.S. Military contracts tied to East Asia. The company’s P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, for example, is used by the U.S. Navy to monitor North Korean submarine activity. If tensions rise, Boeing could see increased demand for its defense products—or, conversely, disruptions in supply chains if sanctions tighten. The company employs thousands in the Puget Sound region, and its fortunes are closely tied to the ebb and flow of global security dynamics.

2. Cybersecurity: A Growing Industry

Seattle’s tech scene is a double-edged sword when it comes to North Korea. On one hand, the city is home to some of the world’s leading cybersecurity firms, like CrowdStrike and ExtraHop, which help defend against state-sponsored hacking. Those same firms could become targets if North Korea ramps up its cyber operations. In 2020, Microsoft revealed that North Korean hackers had targeted COVID-19 vaccine researchers, including some in the Seattle area. For local cybersecurity professionals, the threat is real and ongoing.

3. The Korean-American Community: A Bridge and a Barometer

Seattle’s Korean-American community, centered in neighborhoods like the International District and Federal Way, is a microcosm of the broader Korean diaspora. Many families here have relatives in South Korea, and some have ties to North Korea as well. For them, the prospect of renewed diplomacy—or renewed conflict—isn’t abstract. It’s a matter of family reunions, remittances, and the safety of loved ones back home. Local organizations like the Korean American Coalition of Washington (KAC-WA) often serve as a bridge between the community and policymakers, advocating for issues like family reunification and humanitarian aid to North Korea.

What’s Next for U.S.-North Korea Relations?

Aum’s assessment is that the window for diplomacy is still open, but it’s narrowing. “North Korea has made it clear that denuclearization is off the table,” he said. “The best the U.S. Can hope for is arms control—limiting the size and scope of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal in exchange for sanctions relief.” But even that would require a level of trust that’s been in short supply since the collapse of the Hanoi Summit.

For Trump, the challenge is twofold. First, he’d need to convince Kim that the U.S. Is a reliable partner, not a distracted one. The Iran strikes could complicate that message, making North Korea wary of engaging with a U.S. That’s simultaneously involved in multiple regional conflicts. Second, Trump would need to build a coalition of allies—South Korea, Japan, and even China—to support any deal. That’s easier said than done, especially given the fraught state of U.S.-China relations.

In Seattle, the implications of this diplomatic tightrope walk are already being felt. Local defense contractors are watching the news closely, cybersecurity firms are updating their threat assessments, and Korean-American community leaders are fielding calls from anxious relatives. The city’s economy, its security, and its cultural fabric are all intertwined with the fate of U.S.-North Korea relations.

If This Affects You in Seattle: Who You Need to Know

Given my background in international security and geopolitical analysis, I’ve seen firsthand how global events can reshape local landscapes. If you’re in Seattle and this news hits close to home—whether you work in defense, tech, or the Korean-American community—here are the three types of local professionals you might want to connect with:

1. Boutique Cybersecurity Consultants

Not all cybersecurity firms are created equal. If you’re a little or mid-sized business in Seattle’s tech sector, you need a consultant who understands the specific threats posed by state-sponsored hackers like North Korea’s Lazarus Group. Look for firms with:

• A track record of defending against advanced persistent threats (APTs).
• Experience working with companies in your industry (e.g., healthcare, finance, or critical infrastructure).
• Certifications like CISSP (Certified Information Systems Security Professional) or CEH (Certified Ethical Hacker).
• A local presence in the Puget Sound region, so they can respond quickly to incidents.

Pro tip: Inquire for case studies or references from clients who’ve faced similar threats. If they can’t provide them, keep looking.

2. Defense and Aerospace Compliance Specialists

If you work for a company like Boeing or one of its suppliers, you’re likely already familiar with the labyrinth of export controls and sanctions that govern defense contracts. But with the geopolitical landscape shifting rapidly, you need a specialist who can help you navigate:

• The International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) and the Export Administration Regulations (EAR).
• Sanctions regimes, including those imposed by the U.S., UN, and EU.
• Compliance risks related to supply chain disruptions or changes in U.S. Policy.

Look for attorneys or consultants with experience in:

• Defense trade controls.
• International trade law.
• Government contracting.

Many of these specialists are based in Seattle or Bellevue and have worked with local firms like Boeing, Lockheed Martin, or smaller defense contractors in the region.

3. Korean-American Community Advocates and Legal Experts

For Seattle’s Korean-American community, the stakes of U.S.-North Korea relations go beyond geopolitics. If you or your family are affected by issues like:

• Family reunification with relatives in North Korea.
• Humanitarian aid or remittances to North Korea.
• Immigration or asylum issues related to North Korean defectors.

You’ll want to connect with:

• Nonprofits like the Korean American Coalition of Washington (KAC-WA) or the Korean Community Service Center (KCSC).
• Immigration attorneys who specialize in asylum cases or family-based immigration.
• Advocacy groups that work on North Korea-related human rights issues.

These professionals can help you navigate the legal and logistical challenges of maintaining ties with family in North Korea or advocating for policy changes in Washington, D.C.

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