FBI Warns Iran Planned Potential Drone Attack on California Coast

The FBI recently alerted California law enforcement agencies to a potential threat of drone attacks originating from Iran, a warning issued as tensions escalate following a series of retaliatory strikes between the U.S. And Iran. The alert, first reported by ABC News, suggests that Iranian officials had, as of early February 2026, considered a surprise attack using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) launched from an unidentified vessel off the U.S. Coastline, specifically targeting unspecified locations within California. While the credibility of the intelligence remains under assessment, the warning underscores the broadening scope of the conflict and the potential for escalation beyond the Middle East.

Expanding Conflict and the California Threat

The FBI’s warning, distributed to police departments and Joint Terrorism Task Force partners at the end of February, detailed that the alleged Iranian aspiration for an attack was contingent upon the United States taking military action against Iran. That threshold was crossed on February 28th, when the Trump administration, in coordination with Israel, initiated a military campaign against the Islamic Republic. The conflict has since entered its twelfth day, with Iran responding with waves of drone and missile strikes against targets in the Middle East, including attacks on Gulf nations and merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Three merchant vessels were struck in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, raising the number of ships attacked since the war began to 14.

The alert specifically noted a lack of further information regarding the timing, method, or specific targets of the potential attack. “We have no additional information on the timing, method, target, or perpetrators of this alleged attack,” the bulletin stated, according to ABC News. This lack of specificity has led some law enforcement sources to downplay the immediate threat. Sources speaking to the Los Angeles Times indicated the intelligence was not currently considered credible, characterizing such alerts as precautionary in nature. One source attributed the origin of the warning to intelligence gathered by the U.S. Coast Guard.

Iran’s Regional Reach and Potential for Asymmetric Warfare

The possibility of Iran attempting to strike the U.S. Homeland, even through asymmetric means like drone attacks, is rooted in the country’s strategic calculations and regional ambitions. Iran has long sought to project power beyond its borders, often through proxy groups and unconventional warfare tactics. The current conflict provides a heightened incentive for Iran to demonstrate its ability to retaliate against the U.S., even at a distance. John Cohen, a former head of intelligence for the Department of Homeland Security, highlighted Iran’s existing presence and relationships in Latin America as factors that could facilitate such an attack. Cohen told ABC News, “We know Iran has an extensive presence in Mexico and South America, they have relationships, they have the drones and now they have the incentive to conduct attacks.”

This potential for asymmetric warfare extends beyond direct Iranian action. U.S. Intelligence officials have also expressed concern about the increasing weaponization of drones by Mexican drug cartels. A September 2025 bulletin reviewed by ABC News warned of reports that cartel leaders had authorized the use of explosive-carrying drones against U.S. Law enforcement and military personnel along the southern border – a scenario described as unprecedented but “plausible.” This parallel concern underscores the broader challenge of countering the proliferation of drone technology and its potential misuse by non-state actors.

California’s Preparedness and the Broader Security Posture

California Governor Gavin Newsom addressed the threat publicly, stating that his office was aware of the information and had been sharing it with local partners. “We are aware of that information, and we transferred that information in real time to our local partners,” Newsom said at a press conference. “Drone issues have always been top of mind, and we’ve assembled some operate groups specifically around those concerns.” The Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (CalOES) confirmed it has elevated its security posture since the conflict began and is coordinating with state, local, and federal officials.

The FBI’s Los Angeles field office declined to comment on the specific threat, and the White House has not yet issued a public response. Still, President Trump, when asked about the possibility of Iran expanding its retaliation to U.S. Soil, offered a dismissive response: “No, I’m not.” This statement contrasts with the more cautious approach taken by state and local officials, who appear to be taking the threat seriously despite the lack of concrete evidence.

The Strait of Hormuz and Global Economic Impacts

The escalating conflict is not limited to potential attacks on U.S. Soil. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil supplies, is rapidly deteriorating. Iran has closed the strait to tanker traffic, causing crude oil prices to surge past $100 a barrel. This price spike prompted the International Energy Agency to authorize its largest-ever coordinated release of emergency oil reserves in an attempt to stabilize the market. The disruption to oil flows has far-reaching implications for the global economy, potentially contributing to inflation and economic slowdown.

Unconfirmed Intelligence and the Pre-Positioning Dynamic

The FBI’s alert also highlights a long-standing concern within U.S. Intelligence circles: the possibility of adversaries pre-positioning equipment, including weapons and drones, in anticipation of a conflict. The alert did not specify how or when a vessel carrying attack drones could approach the American coastline close enough to launch a strike, leaving open the question of how Iran might attempt to execute such an attack. This uncertainty underscores the challenges of intelligence gathering and the difficulty of preventing surprise attacks.

Looking Ahead: Procedural Next Steps and Potential Scenarios

The immediate focus for U.S. Law enforcement and intelligence agencies will be on enhancing surveillance and security measures along the California coastline. This includes increased monitoring of maritime traffic, enhanced drone detection capabilities, and closer coordination with state and local partners. The U.S. Coast Guard will likely play a key role in patrolling the waters off the California coast and intercepting any suspicious vessels. Further intelligence gathering will be crucial to determine the credibility of the threat and identify any potential attack plans.

Beyond the immediate security response, the situation raises broader questions about the future of the conflict with Iran and the potential for further escalation. Diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the crisis remain limited, and the possibility of a wider regional war cannot be ruled out. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the conflict can be contained or whether it will spiral into a more protracted and dangerous confrontation.