France Elections: Le Pen, Macron’s Successor & the Rise of the Far-Right

French Municipal Elections and the Looming 2027 Presidential Race

Across France, votes are being held in approximately 35,000 towns and villages, with the outcomes carrying significant weight beyond local governance. These municipal elections are being closely watched as a bellwether for the 2027 presidential race, as President Emmanuel Macron prepares to leave office after serving the maximum two consecutive five-year terms. The political landscape is shifting, and the results of these local contests will undoubtedly influence the strategies and positioning of potential presidential candidates.

The National Rally’s Expanding Reach

The far-right National Rally (Rassemblement national or RN), formerly known as the National Front, is actively campaigning in around 600 municipalities throughout France. This represents a substantial increase in their engagement compared to previous elections, signaling a concerted effort to broaden their base and demonstrate their capacity for governance at the local level. The party, described as right-wing populist and nationalist, currently holds 142 seats in the National Assembly, becoming the single largest party in the lower chamber after the 2024 snap elections called by Macron backfired.

The RN is now hoping to capitalize on this momentum and position itself favorably for the 2027 presidential election. The potential candidates include three-time presidential candidate Marine Le Pen, and her deputy, Jordan Bardella. Le Pen’s candidacy hinges on the outcome of a court case; if her ban from office is upheld, Bardella is expected to become the far-right’s standard-bearer.

Key Contests: Paris and Marseille

Several key cities are witnessing particularly competitive mayoral races. In Paris, former culture minister Rachida Dati is vying to unseat the incumbent Socialist mayor, Anne Hidalgo, after 25 years of left-wing leadership. Dati faces challenges, including graft accusations, but represents a significant challenge to the established order. Hidalgo herself faced criticism, receiving only 1.7 percent of the vote in the first round of the 2022 presidential election before endorsing Macron.

Further south, in Marseille, the country’s second-largest city, incumbent leftist Mayor Benoît Payan is facing a challenge from far-right candidate Franck Allisio. The outcome in Marseille will be a crucial indicator of the RN’s ability to gain traction in urban centers.

The Broader Political Context

The Socialist Party is campaigning in 2,960 communes and aiming for mayoral positions in over 1,300 towns and cities. However, the broader political landscape is fragmented, with many smaller communes seeing candidates running without explicit party affiliation. This adds a layer of complexity to the elections, as local issues and personalities often play a significant role in determining the outcome.

Historically, parties on the French left have often formed alliances to prevent victories for the far-right. However, recent events, including the fatal beating of a right-wing activist, have created tensions within the left-wing coalition, with some groups expressing reluctance to collaborate with hard-left factions. Dominique de Villepin, a former conservative premier, has described the incident as France’s “Charlie Kirk moment”, warning that it could be exploited to delegitimize parts of the political spectrum.

What the National Rally Aims to Achieve

According to Marta Lorimer, a politics lecturer at Cardiff University, the National Rally views these municipal elections as an opportunity to “establish themselves” and build credibility at the national level. Success in local elections provides the party with a platform to demonstrate its ability to govern and appeal to a wider range of voters. The party opposes immigration, advocating for stricter controls and the protection of “French identity.”

Looking Ahead: Implications for 2027

The results of these municipal elections will be closely analyzed for clues about the potential outcome of the 2027 presidential race. A strong performance by the National Rally would likely position them as a serious contender, while a disappointing result could hinder their momentum. The elections also provide an opportunity for other potential candidates, such as former prime minister Édouard Philippe, to demonstrate their leadership capabilities and build support for a presidential bid. Philippe is seeking to retain his position as mayor of Le Havre, a role he has held since 2014.

The broader context of French politics, including the legacy of President Macron and the evolving dynamics within the left-wing opposition, will also play a crucial role in shaping the 2027 presidential election. The coming months will be critical as potential candidates refine their strategies and vie for the support of French voters.

(FRANCE 24 with AFP)