Germany Surpasses China as World’s 4th Largest Arms Exporter: SIPRI Report 2021–2025

Germany has risen to become the fourth-largest arms exporter globally, surpassing China for the first time, according to a new report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The shift, covering the period between 2021 and 2025, reflects a complex interplay of factors including increased European demand, particularly spurred by the war in Ukraine, and a recalibration of China’s defense industry priorities. This development signals a notable change in the global arms trade landscape, traditionally dominated by the United States, France, and Russia.

A Shifting Global Order

The SIPRI report, released on March 11, 2026, details how Germany accounted for 5.7 percent of global arms distribution, edging out China’s 5.6 percent share. The Defense Post highlights this as a significant milestone. The United States remains the dominant force, controlling 42 percent of global exports, followed by France at 9.8 percent and Russia at 6.8 percent. This ranking underscores the continued reliance of many nations on American military hardware, but also demonstrates a growing diversification of suppliers, particularly within Europe.

The rise in German arms exports is inextricably linked to the geopolitical fallout from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. European nations, reassessing their security postures, have significantly increased defense spending and sought to bolster their military capabilities. Germany, with its established defense industry, has been well-positioned to meet this demand. Approximately 24 percent of Germany’s arms exports during the 2021-2025 period were directed to Ukraine as military aid, according to SIPRI. Beyond Ukraine, key recipients of German military equipment included Egypt and Israel, contributing to a 15 percent increase in Berlin’s foreign military sales compared to the 2016-2020 period.

The Actors and Their Stakes

Several key actors are driving these shifts. The United States, while maintaining its lead, faces increasing pressure to balance domestic needs with its commitments to allies. France is solidifying its position as a major arms exporter, benefiting from strong relationships with countries in the Middle East and Asia. Russia’s decline is largely attributed to sanctions imposed following its actions in Ukraine, as well as a strategic shift towards prioritizing domestic military modernization. China, while still a significant player, appears to be focusing on equipping its own armed forces and expanding its internal production capacity.

Germany’s ascent is particularly noteworthy. For decades, German arms exports were constrained by a cautious foreign policy and a historical reluctance to engage in large-scale military interventions. However, the war in Ukraine prompted a significant policy shift, with Berlin committing to increased defense spending and a more proactive role in supporting its allies. This change has unlocked the potential of Germany’s defense industry, allowing it to capitalize on growing demand for its products, including armored vehicles, artillery ammunition, and air defense systems like the IRIS-T SLM. SIPRI’s report identifies 66 states as suppliers of major arms during the period, highlighting the breadth of the global arms trade network.

Historical Context and Evolving Trends

The global arms trade has long been a reflection of geopolitical tensions and shifting power dynamics. The Cold War saw the United States and the Soviet Union as the dominant suppliers, with their respective allies relying heavily on their military hardware. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States emerged as the clear leader, while Russia struggled to maintain its market share. The rise of China as an economic and military power has introduced a new dimension to the arms trade, with Beijing increasingly seeking to establish itself as a major supplier.

The current shift, however, represents a more nuanced development. It is not simply a case of one country replacing another. Rather, it reflects a broader trend towards diversification of suppliers and a growing emphasis on regional self-reliance. European nations, in particular, are seeking to reduce their dependence on the United States and develop their own defense capabilities. This trend is further reinforced by uncertainties surrounding the future of U.S. Security commitments, as highlighted by Defense News. Concerns over potential policy shifts in Washington, coupled with the perceived need for greater strategic autonomy, are driving European nations to seek alternative sources of military equipment.

The Mechanics of Arms Transfers

International arms transfers are governed by a complex web of regulations and agreements. The Arms Trade Treaty (ATT), which entered into force in 2014, aims to regulate the international trade in conventional arms and prevent their diversion to illicit markets. However, the ATT is not universally ratified, and its effectiveness is limited by the lack of enforcement mechanisms. Individual countries also have their own export control regimes, which govern the sale of military equipment to foreign governments. These regimes typically require governments to assess the risk of human rights abuses or the diversion of arms to terrorist groups before approving a sale.

The process of arms transfers typically involves a series of negotiations between the supplier and the recipient government. These negotiations can be lengthy and complex, often involving detailed technical specifications, financial arrangements, and security guarantees. Once an agreement is reached, the arms are typically delivered over a period of several years, with ongoing training and maintenance provided by the supplier.

Regional and Global Implications

The shift in the global arms trade has significant implications for regional and global security. The rise of Germany as a major exporter could help to stabilize the European defense market and reduce reliance on the United States. However, it could also exacerbate tensions with Russia, which views Germany as a key ally of the West. China’s declining exports could have implications for its relationships with its traditional arms customers, such as Pakistan. The increased demand for arms in Ukraine is likely to continue, as the country seeks to rebuild its military capabilities and deter further aggression from Russia.

the diversification of arms suppliers could lead to increased competition and lower prices, benefiting recipient countries. However, it could also create new opportunities for illicit arms trafficking and the proliferation of weapons to non-state actors. The SIPRI report underscores the importance of strengthening arms control mechanisms and promoting transparency in the international arms trade.

Confirmed vs. Unclear

It is confirmed that Germany has surpassed China as the fourth-largest arms exporter between 2021 and 2025, based on data from SIPRI. It is also confirmed that the United States, France, and Russia remain the top three exporters, and that Ukraine has become the largest importer of major arms. However, the long-term implications of these shifts are less clear. It remains to be seen whether Germany will be able to sustain its position as a major exporter, and whether China will be able to regain its lost market share. The future of the global arms trade will depend on a number of factors, including geopolitical developments, economic conditions, and technological innovation.

Looking Ahead

The next five years will likely see continued volatility in the global arms market. European defense spending is expected to remain high, driven by concerns over Russia and the need to modernize military capabilities. The United States will likely continue to dominate the market, but its share could decline as other countries increase their exports. China’s strategy remains a key variable; whether Beijing prioritizes domestic modernization or seeks to regain export market share will significantly shape the landscape. Monitoring SIPRI’s future reports will be crucial for understanding these evolving dynamics and their implications for global security.