Global Baku Forum: Calls for Iran Dialogue as War Fuels Oil Prices & Ukraine Aid Debate

Global Baku Forum Addresses Escalating Iran War

The annual Global Baku Forum convened on Thursday, March 12, 2026, against a backdrop of heightened international concern as the Iran war continues to unfold across the border. This year’s forum, themed “Bridging the Divides in a World in Transition,” carries a particularly urgent weight given the escalating geopolitical tensions and their potential ramifications. The forum opened with calls for diplomatic solutions to de-escalate the conflict and prevent further regional instability.

The opening session saw Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev emphasize the threat posed by the current global landscape, characterized by numerous conflicts and a disregard for international law. Aliyev specifically highlighted violations of territorial integrity and the disregard for resolutions passed by international organizations as key destabilizing factors. He as well pointed to the impact of the conflict on energy security, noting that recent Iranian actions impacting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf have driven oil prices above $100 a barrel. Euronews.com reported on these concerns.

Rising Oil Prices and the War in Ukraine

The surge in oil prices, directly linked to the instability in the Middle East, was identified as a factor inadvertently benefiting Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine. Former European Council President Charles Michel articulated this connection, suggesting that the increased financial resources available to Russia, coupled with diverted international attention, allow the conflict to continue. He stressed the demand for the European Union to develop its own strategic capabilities in response to this shifting global dynamic.

Aliyev also addressed the energy implications, stating Azerbaijan is increasing gas deliveries to the EU to help offset disruptions caused by the conflict. His chief foreign policy advisor, Hikmet Hajiyev, emphasized the country’s commitment to maximizing its energy contributions and exploring broader cooperation opportunities with the EU in the energy sector.

Recent Escalations and Diplomatic Efforts

The forum’s discussions were informed by recent escalations in the conflict, including Iranian drone strikes on the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhichevan, which injured several people. While a phone call between Aliyev and his Iranian counterpart, Massoud Pezeshkian, appeared to de-escalate immediate tensions – prompting Azerbaijan to temporarily close its border – the incident underscored the potential for the conflict to broaden. Hajiyev reiterated Azerbaijan’s support for international efforts to resolve the conflict through dialogue and diplomacy, while simultaneously emphasizing the need to prevent further geographical expansion of the hostilities.

Prospects for Resolution: A Difficult Path

Analysts present at the forum offered a cautious outlook on the prospects for a swift resolution to the Iran war. William Wexler of the Atlantic Council suggested that a quick conclude to the conflict hinges on either Iran backing down or the United States altering its negotiating position. Wexler outlined two unlikely scenarios: Iran agreeing to halt domestic nuclear enrichment, or US President Trump declaring victory and ending the war. He expressed skepticism that either outcome would materialize in the near future. Yahoo News Canada provided coverage of this analysis.

Ukraine’s EU Accession and European Security

The ongoing conflict in Iran also prompted discussion regarding the potential acceleration of Ukraine’s accession to the European Union. Artis Pabriks, former Latvian defence minister, argued that integrating Ukraine into the EU is strategically vital for bolstering European security, particularly given Ukraine’s robust military capabilities. He dismissed the possibility of a diplomatic solution with Russia, advocating for a stronger, unified European response.

Funding for Ukraine and Internal EU Challenges

Discussions also touched upon the challenges of securing continued funding for Ukraine within the EU, despite obstruction from Hungary and Slovakia, both countries heavily reliant on Russian gas. However, Charles Michel expressed confidence that a political solution could be found to overcome these obstacles, citing past instances where tensions were resolved to allow for continued support for Ukraine. He emphasized the importance of political will among EU member states to navigate these internal divisions.

Azerbaijan’s Role and Regional Implications

Azerbaijan’s position as a key energy supplier to Europe and its proximity to the conflict zone place it in a critical role. The country’s willingness to increase gas deliveries to the EU demonstrates its commitment to mitigating the energy security risks associated with the Iran war. However, the recent drone strikes on Nakhichevan highlight the vulnerability of the region and the potential for escalation. The Global Baku Forum provided a platform for international leaders to address these challenges and explore avenues for de-escalation and regional stability. Inbox.lv also covered the forum’s opening day.

The forum continues through Friday, with further discussions expected on the broader geopolitical implications of the Iran war and potential pathways towards a peaceful resolution. The convergence of international leaders in Baku underscores the urgency of addressing the escalating crisis and preventing further destabilization of the region.