Gorton & Denton By-Election: Greens Challenge Labour as Reform Threat Looms

February 26, 2026 David Kessler - News Editor News

Gorton and Denton By-Election: A Three-Way Battle Heats Up

Polls have opened in the Gorton and Denton by-election in Greater Manchester, presenting a significant test for all three major parties. The contest is shaping up to be a closely fought race between Labour, the Green party, and Reform UK, with some observers suggesting it’s too close to call. The by-election was triggered by the resignation of Labour MP Andrew Gwynne in January, who was under investigation regarding offensive messages sent in a WhatsApp group.

Labour’s Strategy and the Shadow of Past Mistakes

Keir Starmer’s Labour party is attempting to defend a substantial 13,413-vote majority in a constituency where nearly 80% of voters backed a left-leaning party in the 2024 general election. Yet, their campaign strategy has drawn criticism, echoing concerns from a previous electoral setback. Labour is actively warning voters that a vote for the Green party could inadvertently benefit Reform UK, a tactic reminiscent of the party’s unsuccessful approach in the Caerphilly by-election in May 2025, where they ultimately lost to Plaid Cymru. This strategy appears to be an attempt to consolidate the left-leaning vote, but risks alienating potential Green supporters.

The Green Party’s Challenge and Accusations of Labour Interference

Green party leader Zack Polanski, who grew up in Manchester, believes his party is neck and neck with Reform UK, and accuses Labour of deliberately attempting to split the left vote. Polanski contends that a Green victory would be “existential” for Starmer, suggesting Labour fears a challenge from the left. He claims internal Green party data indicates they are marginally behind Reform, with Labour trailing significantly. Polanski has also criticized Labour’s negative campaigning, specifically citing an advert on social media linking the Green party’s drug policy proposals to increased drug use, calling it a “new low.”

Reform UK’s Candidate and the Rise of the Right

Reform UK is fielding Matt Goodwin, a former academic and GB News presenter. Goodwin’s candidacy has attracted scrutiny, with critics raising concerns about his past comments on issues such as women, Muslims, and British citizenship. The party is hoping to capitalize on discontent with the established political order and appeal to voters seeking an alternative to both Labour and the Conservatives. Nigel Farage has been actively involved in the campaign, hoping for a successful outcome.

What’s at Stake: A Turning Point for Labour?

Political analysts suggest the outcome of this by-election could have significant implications for the Labour party. According to Professor Will Jennings of the University of Southampton, a Labour defeat would be “terminal” for Starmer’s strategy of appealing to right-leaning voters at the expense of core progressive supporters. A loss would signal a failure of this approach and potentially lead to a reassessment of Labour’s direction. Conversely, a victory would “staunch that sense of inevitability” surrounding a potential Conservative win and could mark a turning point for the party. However, any relief for Starmer may be short-lived, as Labour is expected to face challenges in upcoming local and devolved elections.

Confirmed vs. Unclear: Key Details

Confirmed:

  • Polls opened at 7am on Thursday, February 26, 2026.
  • The by-election was triggered by the resignation of Andrew Gwynne.
  • Labour held a 13,413-vote majority in the 2024 general election.
  • Matt Goodwin is the Reform UK candidate.
  • Hannah Spencer is the Green party candidate.
  • Angeliki Stogia is the Labour candidate.

Unclear:

  • The exact polling data beyond the general assessment of a close race.
  • The specific details of the offensive messages that led to Gwynne’s resignation (beyond the fact of the investigation).
  • The full extent of Labour’s internal data regarding the by-election.

What Happens Next?

The result of the Gorton and Denton by-election is expected to be declared around 4am on Friday, February 27, 2026. Following the announcement, analysts will dissect the outcome to understand the shifting dynamics of British politics and the implications for the upcoming local and devolved elections. The result will likely fuel debate within the Labour party regarding its strategic direction and its approach to appealing to different segments of the electorate. The by-election serves as a crucial indicator of public sentiment ahead of a potentially pivotal election year.