Iran Attacks Fuel Oil Price Fears: Gulf & Ormuz Strait Under Threat
Escalating tensions in the Middle East, marked by attacks on commercial shipping and infrastructure, are forcing global powers to confront the prospect of sustained disruption to energy markets and a wider regional conflict. The intensifying exchange between the United States and Israel, alongside Iran, is prompting a reassessment of strategic reserves and contingency planning as oil prices begin to climb.
In response to ongoing Israeli and American strikes, Iran is pursuing a broad offensive aimed at weakening both the production and transportation of hydrocarbons, seeking to increase the cost of the conflict for its adversaries. This strategy includes direct attacks on maritime traffic in critical waterways like the Strait of Hormuz.
According to the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), at least 17 incidents involving ships have been recorded since the beginning of the conflict on . These include attacks on a container ship, a cargo vessel, and a bulk carrier on . Images obtained by Agence France-Presse demonstrate the Thai-flagged bulk carrier Mayuree Naree engulfed in smoke. The Thai navy reported that 20 of the 23 crew members had been rescued.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has claimed responsibility for the attacks on the Liberian-flagged vessel and the Mayuree Naree, threatening a “war of attrition” against Israel and the United States. A statement from the command central of Iranian military operations warned that any vessel carrying oil to, or belonging to, the United States, Israel, or their allies would be considered a legitimate target.
Saudi Arabia has also reported intercepting drones targeting the Shaybah oil field, indicating a broadening scope of attacks within the region. Infrastructure on both sides is now being directly targeted.
Israeli and American strikes have reportedly hit 13 energy sites within Iran, primarily oil depots. In response, Iran has launched 16 counter-attacks across seven Gulf countries, targeting oil and gas facilities and complexes.
The Spectre of a Mined Strait
Following Washington’s announcement of the destruction of 16 Iranian naval mines, leaders of the G7 nations are convening via video conference at at the request of French President Emmanuel Macron. The meeting underscores the growing international concern over the stability of vital shipping lanes.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has requested its members release reserves of up to 400 million barrels of oil – equivalent to approximately 54 million tonnes – according to German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche. Germany and Japan have pledged to comply, but the effectiveness of this measure in calming volatile markets remains uncertain.
Analysts warn that even with reserves released, prices could surge due to unforeseen events, such as attacks on refineries or tankers. European stock exchanges have resumed their downward trend, coinciding with a rise of at least 5% in oil prices.
The potential blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil supply transits, is prompting reactions from countries worldwide, including India, Vietnam, Thailand, and Greece, which has capped fuel margins to prevent speculation.
Washington has previously considered escorting ships through the strait, but the Soufan Center, a security research organization, notes that the security risks alone could make a single passage through the strait more expensive than the profit margin on the oil cargo. The center estimates Iran’s naval mine stockpile to be between 2,000 and 6,000 units.
Supreme Leader “Safe and Sound,” Anticipated Repression
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has defended an offensive “without a time limit,” stating that Iranian leadership is “fleeing like mice into tunnels, just like the Hamas leadership in Gaza.”
However, Tehran is demonstrating resilience. The IRGC has claimed responsibility for what it describes as the “most violent and heaviest wave of attacks” since the start of the conflict. Mojtaba Khamenei, recently designated as the new Supreme Leader following the death of his father, has not yet appeared publicly.
State television described him as “injured” in the conflict. Yousef Pezeshkian, son of the Iranian president and a government advisor, stated, “Friends who have connections… told me that, thank God, he is safe and sound.”
The Islamic Republic is also preparing to suppress potential protests, similar to those seen in January. The country’s police chief has declared that protesters will be treated as “enemies,” with Ahmad-Reza Radan emphasizing that “all our forces are ready, finger on the trigger.”
Journalists in the capital report regular explosions. Despite the escalating tensions, residents are attempting to maintain a sense of normalcy. “We have put our faith in God. For now, there is food in the stores,” a 70-year-vintage resident of Tehran told reporters. “People are calm. They are getting used to living despite everything and adapting as best they can to this situation.”
New Strikes in Lebanon
Israel has continued its attacks on the southern suburbs of Beirut, a stronghold of the Iran-backed Hezbollah. At dawn on , a strike hit a building in the Aïcha Bakkar neighborhood, according to the official Ani news agency. A photographer from Agence France-Presse observed significant damage to the seventh and eighth floors of the building.
“We woke up in a state of panic… I was running around the house like crazy looking for my three children,” Mohammad, a warehouse owner residing in a neighboring building, told AFP. The neighborhood is now heavily populated with displaced persons. “Instead of housing one family, each apartment now houses ten.”