Iran Conflict Could Push 45 Million More into Hunger, Hitting Record Highs

The escalating conflict in the Middle East is poised to trigger a historic surge in global food insecurity, potentially pushing an additional 45 million people into acute hunger within the next three months. A new analysis from the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that, should the conflict persist and oil prices remain elevated above $100 per barrel, a staggering 363 million individuals will face food insecurity – surpassing the previous record of 349 million people reached during the onset of the war in Ukraine in 2022.

The immediate impact is being felt through disrupted supply chains, particularly in the critical shipping lanes of the Strait of Hormuz. Since March 2nd, traffic through this vital waterway has been severely restricted, hindering the trade of essential commodities like oil, liquefied natural gas, and crucially, fertilizer. This disruption is exacerbating existing economic pressures and threatening food production in regions heavily reliant on imports.

Ripple Effects Across the Globe

While the Middle East is at the epicenter of the crisis, the repercussions are expected to be far-reaching. The WFP analysis identifies Asia as the region most vulnerable to increased food insecurity, with an estimated 9.1 million additional people facing hunger – a 24% increase. Eastern and Southern Africa could see 17.7 million more individuals struggling to afford food, while Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and Central Africa are projected to experience increases of 2.2 million, 5.2 million, and 10.4 million people respectively.

The situation is particularly concerning as countries in sub-Saharan Africa enter their planting season. Approximately a quarter of the world’s fertilizer supply transits through the Strait of Hormuz, and the current disruptions threaten crop yields and food availability. A separate U.N. Statement highlights the severity of the fertilizer shortage, warning of potentially devastating consequences for agricultural production.

Beyond Price: Understanding the Calculation

The WFP’s projections are based on a detailed assessment of food security, calculating the number of people unable to afford a diet providing 2,100 calories per day. This baseline was then modeled against the anticipated impact of sustained high oil prices – lasting until June – on global food prices. The analysis considered each country’s dependence on imported food and energy, as well as the proportion of the population already struggling to afford an adequate diet. This methodology allows for a nuanced understanding of vulnerability, recognizing that the impact will vary significantly across regions.

Fuel Costs and Humanitarian Operations

The rising cost of fuel is not only impacting food prices but also hindering humanitarian efforts. WFP’s shipping costs have already increased by 18% as of mid-March 2026, and the organization reports that thousands of trucks are now operating at significantly higher fuel expenses. As Carl Skau, WFP deputy executive director and chief operating officer, explained, these increased costs translate directly into a reduced capacity to purchase food or provide cash assistance to those in need. This poses a critical challenge to delivering aid to populations already on the brink of crisis.

Lebanon, Iran, and Gaza: Frontline Impacts

The immediate effects of the conflict are particularly acute in several countries. In Lebanon, significant internal displacement is occurring within a population already grappling with high levels of food insecurity. Iran, facing preexisting economic pressures including economic stagnation, high food inflation, and currency depreciation, is seeing its challenges compounded by the crisis. In Gaza, border closures initially triggered sharp food price increases, and while some crossings have reopened, prices remain elevated, limiting access to affordable food. These localized impacts demonstrate the immediate human cost of the escalating conflict.

The Strait of Hormuz: A Critical Chokepoint

The disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz represents a “dual chokepoint” scenario, impacting not only oil and gas but also the crucial fertilizer market. This unprecedented level of disruption has far-reaching consequences for global supply chains and food production. The impact on fertilizer is particularly concerning, as it threatens crop yields and exacerbates food insecurity in regions reliant on imports. The timing of this disruption, coinciding with planting season in many parts of the world, further amplifies the risk.

Looking Ahead: Monitoring and Response

The WFP is actively adapting and scaling up its emergency operations across the region to meet rising needs. This includes providing food assistance, cash transfers, and nutritional support to vulnerable populations. However, the organization emphasizes the urgent need for increased funding to address the growing humanitarian crisis. The situation remains highly fluid, and ongoing monitoring of food prices, supply chains, and displacement patterns is crucial to inform effective response strategies.

The international community is closely watching the situation, with the UN Secretary-General calling for an end to the conflict and the implementation of relevant Security Council resolutions. The coming weeks and months will be critical in determining the extent of the humanitarian fallout and the long-term impact on global food security. Continued diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict and ensure the safe passage of essential commodities through the Strait of Hormuz are paramount.

The WFP is also working to mitigate the impact of rising fuel prices on its own operations, exploring alternative transportation routes and optimizing logistics to reduce costs. However, the scale of the challenge is immense, and a sustained, coordinated global response is essential to prevent a catastrophic increase in hunger and suffering.