Iran-Israel Conflict: Analysis, Causes & Regional Escalation (2025)

The Middle East is embroiled in escalating conflict following coordinated strikes by the United States and Israel against Iranian targets on Saturday, February 28th. The attacks, which targeted senior Iranian leaders and commanders, resulted in the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, and members of the Revolutionary Guard Corps. This action has triggered a retaliatory response from Iran, involving missile and drone strikes across the Gulf region, impacting US military assets, oil infrastructure, and civilian centers in several nations, including Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. The situation is further complicated by renewed hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, with missile exchanges across the Lebanon-Israel border.

A Shift in Regional Dynamics

The killing of Ayatollah Khamenei marks a significant escalation in the long-standing tensions between Iran and the US-Israel alliance. Even as the stated goal of the strikes was to dismantle the regime’s political and military hierarchy, the consequences are already reverberating throughout the region. Iran’s response, extending beyond military targets to include civilian infrastructure, has drawn condemnation from Gulf states and heightened fears of a wider regional war. The strikes on the Assembly of Experts, responsible for selecting a new Supreme Leader, suggest an attempt to destabilize the Iranian political system at its core.

This latest conflict builds upon a history of escalating tensions. Prior to the February 28th strikes, Israel had already engaged in over a year of ceasefire violations, prompting retaliatory actions from Hezbollah. In September 2025, Israel assassinated key Hamas leaders in Qatar, an action that signaled a broadening of the conflict’s scope, as discussed in a MERIP Roundtable Podcast featuring Maziyar Ghiabi, Shana Marshall, and Kevin Schwartz.

Actors and Underlying Stakes

The primary actors involved are the United States, Israel, and Iran, each with distinct interests and objectives. The US, under President Donald Trump and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, appears to be pursuing a strategy of “short war,” though the potential for prolonged conflict and widespread immiseration of the Iranian population remains high. Israel’s motivations are rooted in its long-standing security concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear program and its support for regional proxies. Iran, for its part, seeks to maintain its regional influence, deter further attacks, and protect its national interests. The involvement of Hezbollah adds another layer of complexity, as the group is deeply intertwined with Iran and committed to resisting Israeli aggression.

Beyond these core actors, several other countries are significantly affected. Gulf states, including Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, are vulnerable to Iranian missile and drone strikes, as evidenced by the recent attacks on oil infrastructure and civilian centers. Lebanon, serving as a key battleground between Israel and Hezbollah, faces the risk of widespread destruction and displacement. The conflict also has implications for global energy markets, as disruptions to oil supplies could lead to price increases and economic instability.

Historical Context and the Path to Conflict

The current crisis is rooted in decades of geopolitical rivalry and mistrust between Iran and the West. The 1979 Iranian Revolution, which ousted the US-backed Shah and established an Islamic Republic, marked a turning point in US-Iran relations. Subsequent events, including the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), Iran’s nuclear program, and its support for regional proxies, have further fueled tensions. The Abraham Accords, normalizing relations between Israel and several Arab states, have also contributed to the shifting dynamics in the region, as analyzed by Arang Keshavarzian in a review essay for MERIP.

More recently, the economic conditions faced by Iranians, exacerbated by sanctions and authoritarianism, have fueled widespread discontent and protests. Ida Nikou’s analysis highlights the socio-economic factors driving these protests, while the “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement, as discussed by Mona Tajali, demonstrated the growing demand for political and social change within Iran. These internal pressures, coupled with external tensions, created a volatile environment ripe for escalation.

The Mechanics of Regional Resistance

Iran’s role within the “Axis of Resistance” – a network of regional actors aligned against Israel and the United States – is crucial to understanding the current conflict. Ölmö Gölz and Ruth Vollmer have explored the ideological underpinnings of this axis from the Iranian perspective, highlighting its commitment to opposing Western influence and supporting Palestinian liberation. Maryam Alemzadeh’s work unpacks the complex politics of Iranian solidarity with Palestinians and its impact on domestic Iranian politics. This network provides Iran with strategic depth and allows it to project its influence throughout the region.

Lebanon’s historical role in establishing solidarity with Palestine and resisting Israeli violence is also significant. A primer assembled by Lara Deeb, Maya Mikdashi, Tsolin Nalbantian, and Nadya Sbaiti details this history, while Munira Khayyat’s reporting from southern Lebanon provides a firsthand account of the devastation and resilience of Lebanese communities in the face of repeated attacks. The interconnectedness of these actors and their shared commitment to resisting Israeli aggression contribute to the complexity of the conflict.

Confirmed vs. Unclear Elements

Confirmed: The US and Israel conducted coordinated airstrikes on Iran on February 28th, resulting in the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran has retaliated with missile and drone strikes across the Gulf region. Hezbollah has fired missiles into Israel, prompting heavy bombardments in response. Civilian casualties are rising across the region.

Unclear: The full extent of the damage caused by the strikes and retaliatory attacks remains unknown. The long-term political consequences of Khamenei’s death are uncertain, particularly regarding the selection of a new Supreme Leader. The potential for further escalation, including direct military intervention by the US or other regional powers, is unclear. The effectiveness of diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict is yet to be determined.

Looking Ahead: Procedural Next Steps

The immediate future is likely to be characterized by continued military engagements and diplomatic efforts to contain the conflict. The selection of a new Supreme Leader in Iran will be a critical process, potentially shaping the country’s future trajectory. International organizations, such as the United Nations, will likely play a role in mediating a ceasefire and providing humanitarian assistance. The US and Israel will demand to assess the effectiveness of their strategy and consider the potential for unintended consequences. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether the current crisis can be contained or whether it will escalate into a wider regional war. The situation demands careful monitoring and a commitment to diplomatic solutions to prevent further loss of life and instability.

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