Iran-Israel War: Iranians Caught Between Regime and Devastation
Every night, Iranian university student Alireza falls asleep staring at his mobile phone, desperate for news about how the joint U.S.-Israeli military onslaught is impacting his country and upending his life. This conflict has placed Iranians in a precarious position, caught between a devastating military campaign and a repressive regime.
And almost every night, the computer science major has nightmares about the risks and uncertainties of a war that has pounded Iran with more than 15,000 airstrikes in 18 days, with no end in sight. “I had imagined that the war might get this bad, but, honestly, I don’t spot a bright future from it,” says Alireza, who asks that his real name not be used. After leaving his university in Tehran amid air bombardments with just a backpack, he sought sanctuary in his hometown in western Iran, which also has been targeted.
Why We Wrote This
Israel’s killing of Ali Larijani, a pivotal Iranian leader, served only to escalate the crisis atmosphere that Iranians are feeling: How to cope and envision a future, while facing crushing U.S.-Israeli attacks and a rigid regime that sees protesters as “just like the enemy.”
Like many Iranians, Alireza says he feels trapped between the dark shadow of the sudden, massive U.S.-Israeli military campaign – which aims to topple the Islamic Republic and destroy its military and security capabilities – and the grim reality of the regime itself. In January, government forces crushed nationwide protests by reportedly killing more than 7,000 Iranians, and possibly far more, and recently issued fresh shoot-to-kill orders to prevent any new unrest.
As Iranians prepare to mark the Persian new year, known as Nowruz, on Friday, a period that is normally rich with celebration, renewal, and family visits is being stained this year by a war far more destructive than anything Iranians imagined.
Escalation and Leadership Vacuum
The crisis atmosphere escalated on Tuesday as Israel announced that its strikes had killed both Ali Larijani, the powerful head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, and Brig. Gen. Gholamreza Soleimani, commander of the ideological Basij militia. The Basij militia was instrumental in the January crackdown on protests. This apparent attempt to deepen Iran’s leadership vacuum also removed, in Mr. Larijani, one of the few top figures who could still balance hard-line and less-hard-line voices within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Mr. Larijani’s death was also seen as a blow to diplomatic chances of de-escalation, as it removes Iran’s last interlocutor with Gulf Arab states, which have been repeatedly targeted by Iranian retaliatory strikes.
Alireza, like many Iranians, feels trapped. He describes a situation where civilian sites are routinely damaged due to their proximity to regime targets. He recalls a building collapsing near his university last June, resulting in the deaths of civilians, and notes the destruction of everyday places like cafes and kebab restaurants he frequented.
“The idea that you can divide a city into ‘military areas’ and ‘residential areas’ is pure nonsense,” he says.
He recalls being arrested before the war with his girlfriend for an infraction of the dress code, and the humiliation his parents endured when summoned to the police station. Now, that police station is destroyed, but so are the places he enjoyed with his girlfriend.
The Human Cost and International Response
“The heavy loss of life is alarming,” said Vincent Cassard, head of the International Committee of the Red Cross delegation in Tehran, in a statement on Tuesday. “Families are gathering for funerals instead of [Nowruz] festivities.” The reported death toll in Iran has surpassed 1,400, though the breakdown between security forces and civilians remains unclear.
President Trump says the United States has significantly degraded Iran’s military capacity, reducing retaliatory missile launches by 90% and drone strikes by 95%. The Pentagon and the Israel Defense Forces indicate no intention of slowing down the campaign, stating they have “thousands of targets” remaining in Iran.
Amid reports of CIA training and arming of Iranian Kurdish militia groups in Iraq, the IRGC declared a “state of war” along the Iran-Iraqi Kurdistan border, banning movement and issuing shoot-to-kill orders. This escalation adds another layer of complexity to the already volatile situation.
A Sense of Nationalism and Fear
Despite the devastation, a sociologist in Tehran, speaking anonymously to the Financial Times, noted a growing “sense of nationalism emerging from the war.” This rally-around-the-flag effect is not dissimilar to what was observed after a previous conflict last June.
“The fear of Iran’s destruction is increasingly uniting people as they fear the consequences of such a large-scale conflict,” the sociologist explained.
Though, this unity is overshadowed by the regime’s brutal suppression of dissent. Brig. Gen. Ahmad-Reza Radan, Iran’s police commander, warned that anyone participating in protests would be treated as an enemy and subject to lethal force.
Israel and the United States have called on Iranians to overthrow the regime, but assessments suggest that any uprising would be met with overwhelming force.
Alireza’s story encapsulates the despair and uncertainty felt by many Iranians. He laments the loss of personal possessions and dreams, and questions the future of his country. He quotes the Persian poet Hafez, expressing a sense of terror and hopelessness: “From every direction where I went, naught increased to me save terror; beware of this desert, and of this endless path.”