Iran-Israel War: Strait of Hormuz Closure Threatens Global Food Security & Fertilizer Supply

The escalating conflict involving Iran is prompting a reassessment of global risk factors, extending beyond the immediate concerns of oil and gas supply. While markets react to the potential for higher crude prices stemming from disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, a less-discussed but equally critical consequence looms: a potential ‘fertilizer shock’ with far-reaching implications for global food security. This disruption isn’t simply about energy; it’s about the intricate link between natural gas, fertilizer production, and the ability to feed a growing world population.

The Nitrogen Nexus: How Fertilizer Production Relies on a Key Chokepoint

Modern agriculture’s high yields are heavily reliant on nitrogen-based fertilizers, a product of a chemical revolution initiated in the early 20th century by German chemists Fritz Haber and Carl Bosch. Their process enabled the large-scale production of ammonia, which is then converted into fertilizers like urea – the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer globally. This process, but, is intrinsically linked to natural gas. Methane, a primary component of natural gas, is transformed into ammonia, making access to affordable and reliable natural gas supplies crucial for fertilizer production. Approximately one-third of globally traded urea passes through the Strait of Hormuz, alongside the liquefied natural gas (LNG) that powers fertilizer plants in other regions.

The Persian Gulf region is central to this system for two key reasons. First, it provides access to some of the world’s cheapest natural gas. Second, significant investments over decades have established substantial ammonia and urea production capacity in countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, largely geared towards export markets. A closure of the Strait of Hormuz, as Tehran is now moving to restrict or effectively close in response to the latest escalation, would therefore threaten not only energy exports but also the physical flow of these vital fertilizers and the energy needed to produce them elsewhere.

Beyond Nitrogen: Sulphur and the Broader Impact

The potential disruption extends beyond nitrogen-based fertilizers. Sulphur, another essential nutrient for plant growth, is largely a byproduct of oil and gas processing. If energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are curtailed, sulphur production will also decline, further compounding the fertilizer supply issue. This interconnectedness highlights the fragility of the global food system and its dependence on a stable energy supply chain. The immediate effects of a Strait of Hormuz closure would include shipment delays and increased freight and insurance costs, but the deeper impact would unfold over months as farmers worldwide grapple with reduced access to fertilizers.

Global Dependencies and Limited Buffers

While some countries maintain fertilizer reserves, true self-sufficiency is rare. India, for example, heavily relies on LNG imports from the Persian Gulf to fuel its domestic urea plants. Brazil is substantially dependent on imported nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers to sustain its soybean and maize production. Even the United States, a major fertilizer producer, imports significant volumes of ammonia and urea to meet regional demand and moderate prices. Sub-Saharan Africa, where fertilizer use is already low, would be particularly vulnerable, with rising prices likely leading to further reductions in application rates and decreased yields. As the Times of Israel reported in February 2026, Iran has long used the Strait of Hormuz as a geopolitical bargaining chip, repeatedly threatening closure during times of crisis.

The Timeline of Disruption: From Planting Season to Harvest

The timing of a disruption is critical. In the Northern Hemisphere, fertilizer purchases typically accelerate before planting seasons. Delays of even weeks can be disruptive, while a disruption lasting months could have a significant impact on crop yields. Farmers facing delayed or unavailable shipments would be forced to make difficult choices: pay sharply higher prices, reduce application rates, or alter crop mixes. Even modest reductions in nitrogen use can lead to disproportionately large declines in yield, potentially resulting in millions of tonnes of lost crops. These losses would ripple through global supply chains, impacting feed markets, livestock production, biofuels, and retail food prices.

What’s Confirmed vs. Unclear: Assessing the Current Situation

Confirmed: The Strait of Hormuz is experiencing increased tension due to the ongoing conflict involving Iran. Iran is restricting shipping through the strait. Approximately one-third of globally traded urea transits the Strait of Hormuz. Fertilizer production is heavily reliant on natural gas.Unclear: The duration of the restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain. The full extent of the impact on fertilizer prices and availability is yet to be seen. The specific responses of governments and agricultural producers are still developing. The degree to which alternative supply routes can mitigate the disruption is unknown.

The Broader Geopolitical Context: US-Israel Strikes and Iranian Retaliation

The current crisis stems from joint military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran on February 28, 2026, which included the killing of Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei. According to Wikipedia’s entry on the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, Iran responded with retaliatory missile and drone attacks on US military bases and regional allies. This escalation has led to heightened tensions in the Persian Gulf and the subsequent restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Bahrain’s state oil company has already declared force majeure on its shipments following an Iranian attack, as reported on March 9, 2026.

Looking Ahead: Procedural Next Steps and Potential Mitigation Strategies

The immediate next steps involve diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict and secure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The United Nations Security Council is likely to convene to discuss the situation, although the potential for a unified response is limited given geopolitical divisions. In the medium term, countries will need to explore strategies to diversify fertilizer supply chains and reduce their dependence on the Persian Gulf region. This could involve investing in domestic fertilizer production capacity, developing alternative sources of natural gas, and promoting more efficient fertilizer use practices. However, these measures will accept time and significant investment to implement. The situation demands a coordinated global response to mitigate the risk of a fertilizer shock and safeguard global food security. The focus must shift beyond oil prices to recognize the critical link between energy security and the ability to feed the world.