Iran-Israel War: Strikes Escalate as New Iran Leader Faces Defiance & Oil Prices Surge

Iran Names New Supreme Leader as US and Israel Intensify Strikes

US and Israeli warplanes launched new waves of strikes across Iran on Monday, as large crowds took to the streets in Tehran in a defiant show of support for Mojtaba Khamenei, the country’s newly appointed supreme leader.

The conflict, now in its second week, continued to escalate, with fresh Iranian missile and drone attacks targeting Israel, US bases across the Middle East and energy infrastructure in the Gulf. Oil prices surged as Iran attacked regional energy infrastructure and the US and Israel bombed targets across Iran.

In Tehran’s Enghelab Square on Monday, thousands gathered to offer allegiance to Iran’s new supreme leader, hours after the appointment was formally announced. Chanting slogans and waving flags, the crowds demonstrated support for the new leader following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had ruled since 1989.

The secretive 56-year-old cleric – only the third supreme leader in the history of the Islamic Republic – has close ties to the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, which has been firing missiles and drones at Israel and Gulf Arab states since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed during the war’s opening salvo.

A Controversial Succession

Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has been chosen as his successor. Unlike his father, the 56-year-old has largely kept a low profile, never holding government office, nor giving public speeches or interviews. Only a limited number of photos and videos of him have ever been published. However, for years there have been rumours that he held considerable influence behind the scenes in Iran. US diplomatic cables, published by WikiLeaks in the late 2000s, described him as "the power behind the robes" who was widely regarded as a "capable and forceful" figure within the regime.

Yet his selection could prove controversial. The Islamic Republic was founded in 1979 after the monarchy was overthrown and its ideology is based on the principle that the supreme leader should be chosen for his religious standing and proven leadership, not through hereditary succession. During his reign, Ali Khamenei spoke only in general terms about the future leadership of the Islamic Republic. One member of Iran’s Assembly of Experts – the clerical body that selects the supreme leader – said two years ago that Ali Khamenei opposed the idea of his son being a candidate for future leadership, though he never publicly addressed such speculation.

Escalating Regional Tensions

The appointment of Khamenei signals no letup in the war launched by the United States and Israel. World markets plummeted and Brent crude oil surged to nearly $120 a barrel on Monday, before retreating. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank more than 600 points, marking a drop of more than 6-1/2% from its all-time high close in mid-February.

Iran’s attacks in the strait of Hormuz have all but stopped tankers from using the key shipping lane through which a fifth of the world’s oil is carried. France is preparing a naval mission to escort container ships and tankers, aiming to gradually reopen the strait of Hormuz.

Iran too attacked Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain, with one strike hitting a residential area in Bahrain and wounding 32 people, including several children. Another attack started a fire at Bahrain’s only oil refinery.

What Each Side Wants

Iran continues to target Israel with drones and ballistic missiles. Israel has accused Iran of deliberately targeting densely populated civilian areas with cluster bombs and is attacking “terrorist infrastructure” in Lebanon, where it is fighting Hezbollah. Israel has ordered inhabitants to leave the southern suburbs of Beirut and parts of Lebanon, areas that have served as strongholds of Hezbollah.

The war has killed at least 1,230 people in Iran, at least 397 in Lebanon and 11 in Israel, according to officials. Israel reported its first military deaths on Sunday, with two combat engineers killed in southern Lebanon.

Analysts have suggested Iran is hoping that restricting the flow of oil to global markets and attacking energy infrastructure will threaten sufficient damage to the global economy to force the US to end the offensive and bring an end to the war on Tehran’s terms. However, neither the US, Israel nor the Gulf states appear ready to consider concessions.

Confirmed vs. Unclear

Here’s a breakdown of what is confirmed and what remains unclear as of Monday, March 9, 2026:

Confirmed:

• Mojtaba Khamenei has been appointed as Iran’s new supreme leader.
• The US and Israel have launched strikes across Iran.
• Iran has launched missile and drone attacks targeting Israel, US bases, and Gulf states.
• Oil prices have surged.
• Regional stock markets have fallen.
• There have been casualties in Iran, Lebanon, and Israel.

Unclear:

• The long-term impact of Mojtaba Khamenei’s leadership.
• The duration of the conflict.
• Whether a diplomatic resolution is possible.
• The full extent of the damage to energy infrastructure.
• The specific targets of US and Israeli strikes within Iran.

Background: The Role of the Supreme Leader

The position of Supreme Leader in Iran is the highest political and religious authority in the country. Established after the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the role is intended to guide Iran according to Islamic principles. The Supreme Leader commands the armed forces, appoints the heads of the judiciary, and has final say on all major policy decisions. The selection process is carried out by the Assembly of Experts, a body of 88 clerics. Traditionally, the Supreme Leader has been a high-ranking Shia cleric with a proven track record of religious scholarship and political leadership. The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei, who lacks this traditional background, represents a significant departure from precedent.

What Happens Next?

The immediate future remains highly uncertain. The US and Israel are likely to continue their military campaign against Iran, while Iran is expected to retaliate. The potential for escalation remains high, particularly if the conflict expands to involve other regional actors. Diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation are ongoing, but have so far yielded limited results. The coming days and weeks will be critical in determining whether the conflict can be contained or whether it will spiral into a wider regional war.