Iran-Israel War: Tehran Attacks, Missile Strikes & Escalating Conflict – March 2026

Israel Intensifies Strikes on Iran as US Signals Escalation

Heavy attacks were reported in Tehran, Iran, on Friday as Israel announced it was hitting “regime infrastructure” in a “new phase” of the war launched jointly with the United States. The conflict, now in its seventh day, continues to expand its regional impact, with Qatar intercepting a drone targeting a US base and Lebanon reporting a rising death toll from Israeli strikes, reaching 123 as of Friday.

US President Donald Trump stated he intends to be involved in the selection of Iran’s next leader following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Saturday’s strikes. Trump dismissed Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, as an unsuitable successor, calling him a “lightweight.”

Early Friday, Iranian media reported significant strikes in Tehran after Israel’s announcement. Israel’s military leadership warned of further escalation, stating they would “further dismantle the regime and its military capabilities” and hinted at “additional surprises.” US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth added that “firepower over Iran and over Tehran is about to surge dramatically.”

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards responded by firing missiles toward Tel Aviv following earlier explosions in the city. Explosions were also heard in Netanya, north of Tel Aviv.

Confirmed vs. Unclear Developments

Confirmed:

• Israel is conducting strikes targeting what it describes as “regime infrastructure” in Iran.
• Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in US-Israeli strikes on Saturday.
• Iran has retaliated with missile and drone attacks targeting Israel, US bases, and Gulf nations.
• The death toll in Lebanon has risen to 123, according to Lebanese health officials.
• Qatar intercepted a drone targeting Al Udeid Air Base.
• US President Donald Trump intends to have a role in selecting Iran’s next supreme leader.

Unclear:

• The full extent of damage from strikes in Tehran remains unclear due to an internet blackout.
• The specific targets of Israeli strikes within Iran beyond “regime infrastructure” have not been detailed.
• The precise number of casualties from US-Israeli strikes within Iran remains unverified.
• The details of Trump’s proposed involvement in selecting Iran’s next leader are not yet specified.

Regional Repercussions and International Response

The conflict’s reach extends beyond Iran, and Israel. Lebanon has experienced significant casualties and displacement due to Israeli strikes in response to attacks from Hezbollah. Tens of thousands have fled their homes, particularly from Beirut’s southern suburbs. The Lebanese Health Ministry reported 123 deaths as of Friday.

Gulf nations have also been targeted. Bahrain reported strikes on a hotel and residential buildings, while Saudi Arabia intercepted ballistic missiles. Thirteen people, including an 11-year-old girl in Kuwait, have been killed in Gulf countries since the conflict began.

The conflict has also impacted international shipping routes, with incidents reported off the coasts of Sri Lanka and Azerbaijan.

Canada’s Prime Minister has suggested that US-Israeli actions may be “inconsistent with international law.”

Background: The US-Iran Relationship and Recent Escalation

The current conflict represents a significant escalation in the long-standing tensions between the United States and Iran. Historically, relations have been strained by Iran’s nuclear program, its support for regional proxies, and its opposition to US foreign policy in the Middle East. The US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal, in 2018, further exacerbated these tensions. The Council on Foreign Relations provides a detailed history of the JCPOA.

The recent escalation began with a preemptive strike by Israel, followed by a joint US-Israeli offensive targeting military and government sites in Iran. The killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei triggered retaliatory attacks from Iran, leading to the current cycle of escalation.

What Happens Next?

The immediate future remains highly uncertain. US officials have indicated a significant increase in military pressure on Iran, while Iran has vowed to continue its retaliatory attacks. The potential for further escalation, including direct conflict between the US and Iran, remains a serious concern.

The selection of a new supreme leader in Iran is also a critical factor. Trump’s stated intention to influence this process could further complicate the situation. The outcome of this leadership transition will likely shape Iran’s future course and its willingness to engage in negotiations.

Diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict are limited, with Iran rejecting calls for a ceasefire. The international community is largely divided, with some countries expressing concern over the escalating violence and others supporting the US-Israeli actions.

Numbers That Matter

• 123: Reported deaths in Lebanon as of Friday.
• 500+: Number of ballistic and cruise missiles, and over 2,000 drones launched by Iran since the start of the war, according to a military source cited by the Iranian Fars news agency.
• 10: People killed by Iranian missile strikes in Israel over the course of the war.
• 6: US personnel killed since the start of the conflict.

Political and Strategic Implications

The conflict has significant political and strategic implications for the Middle East and beyond. It could lead to a wider regional war, drawing in other countries and destabilizing the region. The disruption of oil supplies could have a significant impact on the global economy. The conflict also raises questions about the future of US foreign policy in the Middle East and the effectiveness of its approach to Iran.

The US has given India a 30-day waiver to purchase Russian oil stranded at sea, highlighting the complex geopolitical considerations at play.

The situation is further complicated by the ongoing war in Ukraine and the broader geopolitical competition between the US, China, and Russia.