Iran & Strait of Hormuz: Expert Roule on Escalating Tensions & US Response

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway separating Iran and Oman, is once again at the epicenter of global concern as escalating tensions threaten a vital artery of the world’s oil supply. Recent attacks on commercial vessels and infrastructure, coupled with a robust U.S.-led military response targeting Iranian capabilities, have prompted Gulf states to urgently press Washington for a more decisive strategy to neutralize Iran’s regional influence. This pressure comes as Washington attempts to forge an international coalition to secure the strait, a task complicated by reluctance from some nations to become directly embroiled in a potentially wider conflict. The situation is further exacerbated by a lack of prior notification to Gulf allies regarding U.S. Strikes against Iran, fueling discontent and raising questions about the coordination of regional security efforts.

A History of Confrontation

The Strait of Hormuz has long been a flashpoint. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil passes through this critical chokepoint, making its security paramount to global energy markets. Iran has repeatedly threatened to disrupt shipping in the strait in response to sanctions and perceived threats, and has demonstrated its capabilities through naval exercises and the deployment of asymmetric warfare tactics, including mines and speedy attack craft. The current crisis builds on decades of geopolitical rivalry between Iran and the United States, punctuated by incidents like the 2019 attacks on oil tankers and the seizure of vessels in recent years. Reuters reports that Gulf states are now urging Washington to head beyond containment and actively operate to neutralize Iran’s capabilities, a sentiment reflecting growing frustration with Tehran’s destabilizing actions.

The Shifting Dynamics of Regional Alliances

The current situation highlights a complex dilemma for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations. Bound by long-standing security partnerships with the United States, they find themselves increasingly exposed to Iran’s strategy of economic and military coercion. As noted by the Gulf International Forum, the GCC states are navigating a precarious balance between maintaining their alliance with Washington and protecting their own interests in the face of Iranian aggression. The recent lack of consultation from the U.S. Regarding strikes on Iranian targets has deepened this sense of vulnerability, with officials expressing frustration over a perceived lack of notice and adequate defense. The Associated Press details this discontent, revealing a growing rift between Washington and its traditional allies in the region.

Assessing Iran’s Remaining Capabilities

According to Norm Roule, former National Intelligence Manager for Iran at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the U.S. Military has been closely monitoring Iran’s capabilities in the region for years. Even as acknowledging the genuine threat posed by Iran’s arsenal of missiles, drones, and naval assets, Roule emphasizes that the U.S. Military has developed plans and capabilities to counter them. He notes that recent strikes have significantly degraded Iran’s missile program, making it increasingly difficult for them to maintain subterranean storage facilities. Yet, Iran still possesses a substantial drone capability and retains a stockpile of mines, posing ongoing risks to maritime traffic. The Quds Force, Iran’s elite extraterritorial special forces unit, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have also suffered setbacks, with key facilities destroyed and personnel dispersed, though their cyber capabilities remain largely intact.

The Coalition Calculus and Burden Sharing

The United States is actively seeking to assemble an international coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz, urging countries reliant on Gulf energy exports to contribute naval forces to protect commercial shipping. However, diplomatic efforts have been uneven, with some governments hesitant to become directly involved in a potentially escalating confrontation with Iran. Roule stresses the importance of burden-sharing and the need for a global coalition, led by the United States, to ensure the free flow of commerce through the internationally recognized waterway. He cautions against countries negotiating directly with Iran for safe passage, arguing that this would legitimize Tehran’s attempts to control the strait. The December 2025 National Security Strategy, as outlined by President Trump, supports the formation of such a coalition, aligning with the principle of maintaining open sea lanes for international trade.

Beyond Maritime Security: Iran’s Economic Lifeline

The Strait of Hormuz is not only crucial for oil exports but also vital for Iran’s own economy. Approximately 28% of Iran’s GDP is derived from traffic passing through the strait, including essential imports of food, wheat, and other grains. This economic dependence creates a strategic vulnerability for Iran, as a prolonged closure of the strait would severely impact its population and economy. Roule points out that Iran can sustain a temporary closure, but ultimately needs the strait to remain open to maintain its economic stability. This dynamic adds another layer of complexity to the situation, as any military action that significantly disrupts shipping could have unintended consequences for Iran’s internal stability.

Naval Strategy and Defensive Measures

From a military perspective, Roule suggests that the U.S. Navy would prioritize reducing Iran’s capacity to deploy missiles, mines, and swarm boats. This would involve a concerted effort to locate and neutralize these assets, followed by the establishment of a secure convoy system for commercial shipping. A key challenge is mitigating the threat posed by Iranian drones, with Roule noting that a convoy would be vulnerable to attacks from large numbers of unmanned aerial vehicles. He anticipates that the U.S. Navy is likely focused on reducing Iran’s drone capacity and clearing potential minefields before initiating full-scale convoy operations.

The Modern Iranian Leadership and Future Trajectory

The recent leadership changes within Iran, with the appointment of Mujtaba Khamenei as the new Supreme Leader, do not signal a fundamental shift in the country’s strategic orientation. Roule emphasizes that the new leadership consists of long-time Revolutionary Guard officials who share a similar worldview and commitment to Iran’s revolutionary principles. While the new Supreme Leader may present a different public persona, he is likely to continue pursuing Iran’s nuclear ambitions, supporting regional proxies, and challenging the United States and its allies. Roule believes that Iran’s primary goal will be survival, both of the regime and of the Iranian people, and that they may seek to de-escalate tensions while simultaneously continuing to develop their military capabilities.

What to Expect in the Coming Weeks

Looking ahead, several key developments will be crucial to watch. The continued degradation of Iran’s missile and drone capabilities will be a primary focus, as will the formation of an international naval force to secure the Strait of Hormuz. The potential for further attacks on regional infrastructure and the response of Gulf partners will also be critical. Roule highlights the remarkable performance of Gulf states in defending against recent attacks, underscoring the strength of their security partnerships with the United States. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains highly volatile and requires careful diplomacy, robust military deterrence, and a commitment to maintaining the free flow of commerce through this vital waterway.