Iran War 2026: Roundtable on Regional Impacts & Shifting Power Dynamics

The Middle East Institute for Policy (MERIP) recently hosted a roundtable discussion focusing on the evolving dynamics of the ongoing conflict in Iran, a war that has rapidly expanded beyond its borders and is reshaping the regional political landscape. The discussion, recorded on March 11, 2026, comes after the United States and Israel initiated a large-scale air war against Iran on February 28, 2026, an escalation now impacting at least twelve countries. The roundtable participants examined the social impacts of the war and the potential for a significant shift in regional power structures.

A Widening Conflict and Shifting Leadership

The conflict, now entering its second month, has seen the deaths of numerous Iranian political figures, including the 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, prompting a succession of leadership. Beyond the immediate casualties, critical oil infrastructure within Iran and across the Gulf region has sustained severe damage, with production significantly curtailed. Retaliatory missile and drone strikes launched by Iran have targeted both military installations and civilian areas in Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the Emirates, and Oman. Perhaps most critically, the closure – and suspected mining – of the Strait of Hormuz has driven oil prices above $100 a barrel, threatening to plunge the global economy into recession.

The roundtable featured insights from Ida Nikou, a sociologist and author of the MERIP article “Governing Crisis–Sanctions, Austerity and Social Unrest in Iran”; Arang Keshavarzian, professor of Middle East and Islamic Studies at NYU and author of Making Space for the Gulf: Histories of Regionalism and the Middle East; and Sean Yom, associate professor of political science at Temple University and author of Jordan: Politics in an Accidental Crucible. The discussion was led by MERIP Executive Director James Ryan.

US Aims and Regional Chaos

A central concern raised during the roundtable was the ambiguity surrounding the US administration’s war aims. Participants noted the perception that the US is operating in concert with an Israeli government seemingly intent on destabilizing the region, inflicting hardship on the Iranian population, and intensifying attacks on Lebanon although restricting aid to and movement within Gaza and the West Bank. This dynamic raises questions about the long-term strategic goals of the US involvement and the potential for unintended consequences. The situation is further complicated by the Trump administration’s recent pressure on China and NATO countries to assist in opening the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by The New York Times, and subsequent outbursts directed at NATO allies, suggesting a shifting US reliance on international cooperation, as detailed by the BBC.

The Strait of Hormuz and Global Economic Repercussions

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global oil supplies, is a particularly alarming development. According to Esfandyar Batmanghelidj writing in Foreign Policy, the war is already jeopardizing the entire global economy. The disruption to oil flows has sent prices soaring, increasing the risk of a global recession. This situation highlights the interconnectedness of the global economy and the vulnerability of energy markets to geopolitical instability. Adam Hanieh’s 2024 book, Crude Capitalism: Oil, Corporate Power and the Making of the World Market, provides crucial context for understanding the dynamics at play.

Iran’s Internal Dynamics and Social Unrest

Ida Nikou’s research, including her recent MERIP article and contributions to “Iran in Crisis: Seven Essays on the Obstacles to Freedom”, underscores the pre-existing social and economic vulnerabilities within Iran. Sanctions and austerity measures have fueled social unrest, creating a volatile environment that the current conflict is exacerbating. The roundtable participants discussed how the war is likely to further destabilize Iranian society and potentially lead to increased internal conflict. The death of the Supreme Leader and the subsequent power struggle add another layer of complexity to the situation.

Regional Realignment and US Policy

The war is also prompting a reassessment of regional alliances and power dynamics. Mira Al Hussein, writing in Hidden Cities, argues that the conflict has exposed the Gulf states’ reliance on US protection. Arang Keshavarzian’s work, particularly “Iran Transformed” in the New York Review of Books, offers a historical perspective on regionalism in the Middle East, highlighting the complex interplay of political, economic, and social factors. The roundtable participants debated whether the US is pursuing a coherent long-term strategy or simply reacting to events as they unfold. Andrew J. Bacevich’s America’s War for the Greater Middle East: A Military History (2017) provides a broader historical context for understanding US involvement in the region.

Confirmed vs. Unclear

What is confirmed: the US and Israel have launched a significant military campaign against Iran. Numerous Iranian leaders have been killed. Oil infrastructure has been damaged. Oil prices have risen sharply. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Retaliatory strikes have hit multiple countries. What remains unclear: the precise objectives of the US administration. The long-term consequences of the conflict. The extent of internal opposition to the Iranian government. The potential for escalation into a wider regional war. The durability of existing regional alliances.

The MERIP roundtable highlighted the multifaceted nature of the conflict in Iran and its far-reaching implications. The situation remains fluid and unpredictable, with the potential for significant further escalation. The ongoing discussions and analysis provided by organizations like MERIP are crucial for understanding the complexities of the situation and informing policy decisions.

Looking Ahead: Diplomatic and Economic Pressures

The immediate future will likely be characterized by continued military operations and diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict. Although, the deep-seated mistrust between the parties involved and the opaque nature of US war aims suggest that a swift resolution is unlikely. The economic pressures stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will continue to mount, potentially forcing international negotiations. The role of external actors, such as China and Russia, will also be critical in shaping the outcome of the conflict. Monitoring the IAEA’s attempts to verify the status of Iranian nuclear facilities, as well as the ongoing efforts to secure humanitarian access to Gaza, will be key indicators of the evolving situation.