Iran War: 4 Possible Scenarios From Regime Change to Civil War

The ongoing Israeli and American strikes targeting Tehran are aimed at maximizing damage to Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, as well as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), according to sources. The stated objective, as articulated by former US President Donald Trump, is to create an opportunity for Iranians to overthrow the current regime and “restore the government.” As the confrontations enter their fifth day, a British newspaper, The Guardian, has outlined four potential scenarios for the unfolding conflict, ranging from an orderly, peaceful transition to outright chaotic violence.

A Rapid Transition of Power

The most optimistic scenario, as detailed by The Guardian, envisions a swift relinquishing of arms by the Iranian armed forces and the IRGC. This would be accompanied by a unification of opposition factions, leading to the formation of a transitional government headed by Reza Pahlavi, the son of the Shah overthrown in the 1979 revolution. Under this scenario, the transitional government would surrender the remaining components of Iran’s nuclear program to the United States, specifically the centrifuges and enriched uranium stockpile, and abandon its long-range missile program. American oil companies would then secure the largest share of Iran’s energy market.

However, analysts caution that this scenario is unlikely. Historical precedent suggests that the collapse of a “dictatorial regime is often followed by a new authoritarian system,” the newspaper reports. The potential for a simple replacement of one autocracy with another remains a significant concern.

The Venezuela Scenario

A more plausible outcome, mirroring events in Venezuela, could see a rapid arrest of key Iranian leaders, followed by pledges of cooperation with Washington and granting the US a dominant position in Iran’s oil sector, while the existing power structure largely remains intact. This scenario gains potential weight, particularly following reports of the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Trump’s stated willingness to engage with remaining elements of the regime.

This path would require a pragmatic and moderate figure to succeed Khamenei, such as former President Hassan Rouhani. Washington would likely demand complete abandonment of the nuclear program, strict limitations on the missile program, and substantial concessions in the oil and gas sectors to American companies, in exchange for allowing the current system to remain in power. Negotiations between the Trump administration and new Iranian leaders could potentially yield a mutually beneficial agreement to end the conflict, with the US withdrawing its forces and Israel given tacit approval to strike Iran should the terms of the agreement be violated.

System Resilience and Continued Confrontation

Another potential outcome anticipates the survival of the remaining leadership within the Iranian system, continuing missile and drone launches, and the appointment of a hardline cleric in the mold of Khamenei, or a weak figure easily controlled by commanders within the IRGC. This scenario is considered by many analysts to be the most probable.

Leaders might be emboldened by Trump’s statements suggesting a limited duration for the American campaign, followed by a withdrawal and declaration of victory, leaving Israel free to act independently. However, this could also incentivize remaining leaders to secretly rebuild nuclear and missile programs, operating outside the purview of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and potentially reversing Khamenei’s fatwa prohibiting the development of nuclear weapons, initiating a clandestine race to build a bomb utilizing the existing 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium.

The prevailing belief among these leaders may be that possessing a nuclear weapon is the sole guarantee of survival.

Civil War and Chaos

The most dire scenario envisions a collapse of Iran’s military capabilities due to American and Israeli bombardment. This could trigger internal divisions within the IRGC leadership, and a resurgence of protests, fueled by the belief that the moment for change has arrived. The influx of weapons into minority communities in border regions is also anticipated.

Widespread unrest and civil war could erupt, with supporters of Pahlavi vying for power under the banner of the monarchy, facing opposition from other groups that have long resisted the existing system. Neighboring countries might attempt to exploit Tehran’s weakness. In this chaotic environment, the 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium would become a contested asset, sought after by various factions to build weapons or sell on the black market.

The IRGC, established following the 1979 revolution, has become a powerful force within Iran, its influence enshrined in the constitution. Article 150 of the Iranian constitution defines its role as safeguarding the revolution and its achievements, effectively positioning it as an external instrument and extending its ideological commitment beyond domestic boundaries. The IRGC also controls the Basij volunteer militia, estimated to comprise between 600,000 and 900,000 members, according to American research centers.