Iranian Attacks Push Gulf States Toward Israel, UAE Official Says
The escalating conflict in the Middle East is driving a significant shift in regional alliances, with Iran’s recent attacks pushing Gulf states closer to both Israel and the United States, according to a top advisor to the United Arab Emirates’ president. Anwar Gargash, a key diplomatic figure in the UAE, stated that Iran’s aggressive actions are inadvertently strengthening Israel’s role in the Gulf and fostering deeper ties between Gulf nations and the US.
A Shifting Security Landscape
“Iran’s full-throttle attack on the Gulf states will actually strengthen the Israeli role in the Gulf, will not diminish it,” Gargash said during a Council on Foreign Relations event. He further elaborated that existing relationships between Gulf countries and Israel would be reinforced, and that nations currently without formal ties are likely to explore new channels of communication. This assessment comes amid a surge in Iranian attacks targeting Gulf states, Israel, and critical infrastructure like oil facilities and shipping lanes.
Israel normalized relations with the UAE and Bahrain in 2020 through the Abraham Accords, brokered by the United States. These agreements marked a significant departure from decades of animosity and opened the door for increased cooperation in areas such as trade, security, and technology. The recent escalation, however, appears to be accelerating a broader realignment of regional security dynamics.
Iran’s Escalation and Regional Response
Since February 28th, Iran has launched attacks on airports, ports, oil facilities, and commercial hubs across six Gulf states, alongside strikes against Israel and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – a vital waterway for global oil supplies. As reported by the CBC, Iran has specifically threatened Saudi Arabia’s Samref Refinery and Jubail Petrochemical Complex, the UAE’s Al Hasan Gas Field, and petrochemical plants and refineries in Qatar. These threats underscore Iran’s willingness to target the economic lifelines of its regional rivals.
The UAE has been particularly vulnerable, intercepting a substantial number of incoming projectiles. According to the UAE’s defense ministry, they have intercepted 327 ballistic missiles, 15 cruise missiles, and 1,699 drones since the start of the conflict. Tragically, two UAE soldiers and six civilians have lost their lives, with another 158 wounded. Gargash emphasized this disparity, noting, “We’re not seeing 2,000 Israeli missiles and drones targeting us. We’re seeing 2,000 Iranian missiles and drones targeting us.”
Historical Context: Iran and the Gulf States
The current tensions are rooted in a long history of mistrust and rivalry between Iran and the Sunni Arab Gulf states. Iran, a predominantly Shiite Muslim nation, has often viewed its neighbors – close allies of the US and hosts to American military bases – with suspicion. While relations with Qatar and Oman have generally been less fraught, the broader dynamic has been characterized by proxy conflicts and accusations of interference. NBC Washington reports that the recent attacks followed the killing of top Iranian security official Ali Larijani and Gen. Gholam Reza Soleimani, escalating the cycle of violence.
Past incidents, such as the 2019 attack on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities – for which Iran denied responsibility – have demonstrated the potential for disruption to the region’s energy infrastructure. These attacks halved Saudi output and sent shockwaves through global energy markets, highlighting the vulnerability of the Gulf’s economic lifeline.
The Strait of Hormuz and Regional Security
The security of the Strait of Hormuz is paramount to the Gulf states, as it carries approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply. The attacks have reinforced fears that allowing Iran to develop significant offensive weaponry or arms manufacturing capabilities could embolden it to hold the region’s energy lifeline hostage during periods of heightened tension. Gargash indicated that the UAE is considering joining an international effort, led by the US, to ensure the safety and security of the Strait.
The recent Israeli strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field, which supplies around 70% of Iran’s domestic natural gas, further escalated the situation. In response, Iran’s state television announced plans to attack oil and gas infrastructure in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. This tit-for-tat escalation underscores the dangerous trajectory of the conflict and the potential for wider regional instability.
US Role and Gulf Cooperation
Gargash also emphasized the importance of the US role in regional security. “In this war we are seeing how important that American connection is,” he stated, acknowledging that while there may be disagreements over specific defense systems or responses, the overall US presence remains crucial. He believes that Iran’s actions are ultimately strengthening, rather than diminishing, the US role in the region.
Despite the shared threat, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states – Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the UAE – have struggled to present a united front. They have held only one Zoom call, and no Arab summit has been convened to discuss coordinated action. This lack of cohesion highlights the challenges of forging a unified response to the escalating crisis.
What’s Confirmed and What Remains Unclear
Confirmed: Iran has launched numerous attacks on Gulf states and Israel since February 28th. The UAE has intercepted a significant number of projectiles. Israel has conducted strikes within Iran and Lebanon. Anwar Gargash has stated that Iran’s attacks are pushing Gulf states closer to Israel and the US.
Unclear: The full extent of the damage caused by the attacks remains unclear. The long-term impact of the escalating conflict on regional stability is uncertain. The specific details of any potential coordinated military action involving the US and Gulf states are yet to be determined. The effectiveness of international efforts to de-escalate the situation remains to be seen.
Looking Ahead: Potential Next Steps
The immediate future is likely to see continued tensions and potential for further escalation. The US and its allies are expected to maintain a strong military presence in the region and continue to provide support to Gulf states in defending against Iranian attacks. Diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict are ongoing, but face significant challenges given the deep-seated mistrust and animosity between Iran and its regional rivals. France24 reports that the UAE intercepted Iranian fire as Israel struck Tehran and Lebanon, indicating the broadening scope of the conflict.
The evolving security landscape suggests that Gulf states will likely continue to strengthen their ties with both Israel and the US, seeking to bolster their defenses and deter further aggression from Iran. The question remains whether these efforts will be sufficient to prevent a wider regional conflagration, or whether the current escalation will spiral out of control.