Iran’s Axis of Resistance: Fracturing Alliances & Persistent Threats

A Shifting Landscape for Iran’s Regional Network

When Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, Iran and its network of regional partners – often referred to as the Axis of Resistance – appeared to be in a strong position. Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had armed, funded, and trained groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and various Iraqi Shia militias to project Iranian power across the Middle East. These groups were united by their Shia faith, shared opposition to the United States and Israel, and support for the Palestinian cause. However, after two and a half years of escalating conflict, this alliance appears less cohesive, with member groups increasingly focused on their own priorities. Despite this fragmentation, the potential for these groups to pose a persistent threat to US interests remains significant.

The dynamic has shifted considerably since October. Israel has significantly degraded Hamas and Hezbollah’s military capabilities, inflicting heavy casualties on senior leaders and destroying substantial portions of their arsenals. The fall of the al-Asad regime in Syria in December 2024 further complicated matters for Hezbollah, disrupting critical overland supply routes from Iran. These setbacks meant that neither group offered substantial assistance to Iran when it was directly targeted by US and Israeli strikes in June 2025. More recently, Hamas largely remained on the sidelines during the current conflict, while Hezbollah launched a rocket attack against Israel in retaliation for the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28th, a move that prompted Israel to consider resuming hostilities in southern Lebanon.

Beyond Shared Ideology: Diverging Priorities

The motivations and actions of Iran’s partners are increasingly driven by local concerns rather than a unified strategic vision dictated by Tehran. The Houthi movement in Yemen, for example, has demonstrated a surprising degree of autonomy. Initially focused on Saudi Arabia as its primary adversary, the Houthis redirected their efforts towards attacking Israel following the October 7th attacks, disrupting maritime shipping in the Red Sea and launching missile and drone attacks against Israeli territory. While the Houthis offered a symbolic reveal of support for Iran in June 2025 by launching a few missiles at Israel, they did not provide substantial aid during the direct conflict. Currently, Houthi leader Abd al-Malik al-Huthi has publicly warned of potential escalation, but the group’s primary concern remains governing Yemen and facing potential threats from the internationally recognized Yemeni Government, which successfully repelled secessionists in December 2025. As reported by the BBC, Hamas itself urged Iran to halt attacks on Gulf states, a rare appeal highlighting the complexities within the alliance.

Similarly, Iraqi Shia militias are grappling with domestic political ambitions. The November 2025 legislative elections prompted some militias to prioritize winning votes over advancing Iran’s agenda. Fear of reprisals from the US or Israel, and concerns about alienating the Iraqi public, led many to refrain from direct attacks during the June 2025 conflict, opting instead for rallies within Iraq. Some militias even signaled openness to disarming, suggesting a shift towards political engagement. However, groups like Kataib Hizballah (KH) remain committed to armed resistance, launching attacks against US facilities and personnel in Iraq, particularly in Iraqi Kurdistan and against the US Embassy in Baghdad, in response to the offensive against Iran. KH publicly reaffirmed its solidarity with Iran and vowed to avenge the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

The Iran-Israel Proxy Conflict: A Historical Overview

The conflict between Iran and Israel has long been characterized by proxy warfare. According to Wikipedia, this dynamic dates back to 1985, with Iran supporting groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, while Israel has supported Iranian rebel groups and conducted airstrikes within Iran. This proxy conflict has played out across multiple fronts, including Lebanon, Syria, and the Palestinian territories. The ongoing tensions are rooted in differing geopolitical objectives, ideological clashes, and Israel’s concerns about Iran’s nuclear program. The formation of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” represents a deliberate strategy to build a network of allies capable of challenging US and Israeli influence in the region.

The Role of the IRGC and Funding

The IRGC plays a central role in supporting and coordinating the Axis of Resistance. It provides funding, weapons, training, and strategic guidance to its partners. The extent to which Iran can continue to provide this level of support is a critical factor shaping the future of the alliance. If Tehran’s economic situation deteriorates or if it faces increased international pressure, its ability to bankroll and arm its partners will be diminished, potentially leading to further fragmentation. The groups may then seek alternative sponsors or shift their focus away from militancy.

What’s Confirmed vs. Unclear

Confirmed: Israel has significantly degraded the military capabilities of Hamas and Hezbollah. The Houthi movement has engaged in attacks against Israel and maritime shipping in the Red Sea. Iraqi Shia militias are divided in their approach, with some prioritizing political engagement and others continuing armed resistance. Iran continues to provide support to its regional partners, although the level of support may be constrained by economic and political factors.

Unclear: The extent to which new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei will prioritize the Axis of Resistance. The long-term impact of the fall of the al-Asad regime in Syria on Hezbollah’s supply routes. Whether host governments like Iraq and Lebanon will be able to effectively curb the activities of non-state actors within their borders. The potential for the Yemeni Government to launch a new offensive against the Houthis.

Looking Ahead: Factors Shaping the Future

Several key factors will shape the trajectory of Iran’s Axis of Resistance. The policies of Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, will be crucial. If he chooses to reinvest in the Axis and invoke the memory of his father, it could help reinforce ties between Iran and its partners. The IRGC’s continued funding and arming of these groups will also be essential. The extent to which groups prioritize political engagement over militancy will play a significant role. If they believe they can achieve their goals through negotiations or by wielding political power, they may be less inclined to resort to violence. Finally, the actions of host governments and regional powers will be critical in curbing the activities of these groups and preventing further escalation.

The future of the Axis of Resistance remains uncertain. While it is no longer the cohesive force it once was, its members remain allied with Iran and opposed to the US and Israel. Their increasingly divergent priorities and the challenges they face suggest a more unpredictable and fragmented landscape. Monitoring these developments will be crucial for understanding the evolving dynamics of the Middle East and assessing the potential threats to US interests.