Iran’s Rocket Arsenal: Condition ‘Significantly Worse’ Than Before

Just days ago, both U.S. President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu asserted that Iran’s missile program had been largely neutralized. Yet, Iran continues to launch rockets at targets in Israel and Gulf states. Over the weekend, Iranian armed forces even fired two rockets at the U.S.-British military base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. Military expert Fabian Hoffmann explains what Iran aims to achieve with these actions.

Fabian Hoffmann is a research fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project (ONP). His research focuses on rocket technology, nuclear strategy, and defense policy. Before his position at the University of Oslo, Hoffmann worked as a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

SRF News: Were you surprised by the two rockets Iran fired at Diego Garcia?

Fabian Hoffmann: Not really. This is because Iran has been building ballistic missiles for decades and has operationally deployed ballistic missiles with a range of up to 2,000 kilometers. Increasing the range, even to up to 4,000 kilometers, is more evolution than revolution.

Iran wants to present European states that it retains escalation dominance in certain areas.

Why did Iran fire these two rockets, given they missed their target?

It was about the signaling effect. Iran wants to show European states, especially the United Kingdom, that It’s capable not only of reacting but also of retaining escalation dominance in certain areas.

In Europe, there is discussion that Iran could also attack European cities with this, perhaps even a Swiss city. Under what conditions would that be realistic?

You’ll see two possibilities. First, Iran could build multi-stage ballistic missiles. Currently, only single-stage missiles are used. However, Iran is also working on multi-stage systems. This would easily allow reaching the heart of Europe, including Switzerland. Second, the payload of a single-stage missile could be reduced, from approximately 1,500 kilograms to a few hundred kilograms. This would also significantly increase the range and allow reaching deep into Europe.

Iran remains capable of launching a few ballistic missiles and long-range drones.

A few days ago, Trump and Netanyahu spoke of the Iranian missile program being largely destroyed. What is its actual condition?

The missile arsenal is in significantly worse condition than it was at the beginning of the war. Many missiles, especially a large number of launch ramps, and probably also many production facilities, have been destroyed. Nevertheless, Iran remains capable of launching a few ballistic missiles and long-range drones.

If the U.S. And Israel were actually to succeed in eliminating all Iranian launch ramps and the production of fresh missiles, what destructive potential would Iran still have?

Then a major point of leverage for Iran would be removed.

If production facilities are destroyed, that is painful for Iran, but they could theoretically be rebuilt.

How realistic is it that the U.S. And Israel will succeed in eliminating the entire missile program?

Completely reducing the program to zero is factually impossible. It must be clearly stated: it is also about knowledge. Iran now has many capable rocket engineers. If production facilities are destroyed, that is painful for Iran, but they could theoretically be rebuilt. A comprehensive regime change is also a goal of the Israelis, to prevent a future government from simply rebuilding this missile program.

The conversation was conducted by Matthias Kündig.