Israel Strike on Khamenei: A Dangerous New Era of Leader Assassination?
The Israeli bombing that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on Saturday not only brought the demise of one of the central global political figures of the last half century, it also represented something almost unprecedented in modern warfare: the successful killing of an enemy head of state by a foreign military.
To uncover a roughly parallel operation, you have to go back to the same year as the Iranian revolution. The nearest precedent for the killing of a head of state may be the KGB assassination of Afghan Communist leader Hafizullah Amin in 1979, the prelude to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.
While the strike that killed Khamenei is likely not illegal under the laws of war, it’s a dramatic, escalatory tactic with enormous potential for unintended consequences if it becomes normalized.
Killing foreign leaders has become extraordinarily rare
In centuries past, leaders personally led their troops into battle and often suffered the consequences. But in modern times, they nearly always stay well back from the front lines or in heavily fortified facilities.
The fact that Khamenei was apparently holding a meeting with senior officials in his well-known compound in Tehran, despite indications that airstrikes were imminent, was surprising. The New York Times reported that he told his inner circle he took on the risk because he wanted to avoid the appearance of hiding.
The lack of similar “decapitation” operations against world leaders has not been for lack of trying. The initial “Shock and Awe” campaign of US airstrikes in Iraq in 2003 deliberately targeted Saddam Hussein, who had, in turn, presided over a plot to assassinate former President George H.W. Bush in 1993. The Reagan administration unsuccessfully targeted Libyan leader Muammar al-Qaddafi by bombing one of his compounds in 1986. Airstrikes targeted Qaddafi’s compounds again during the 2011 NATO intervention in Libya. (Qaddafi was eventually killed by Libyan rebels.)
Other high-value targets have been killed in operations similar to the one that struck Khamenei’s compound. Israel killed Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza; the US killed Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in 2019.
What the law says about targeting a head of state
Is killing an enemy head of state in war legal? For the most part, yes. A civilian head of state who is the commander of a country’s armed forces is considered a legitimate military target.
International law prohibits the killing of military or government personnel by means of “treachery” — a breach of trust like feigning surrender — but given Trump’s warnings about impending airstrikes, that would be a tough claim for Iran to create.
US law prohibits US government employees from engaging in assassination. This prohibition came in the wake of congressional investigations that revealed the CIA’s role in the killings of leaders like Patrice Lumumba, Ngo Dinh Diem and Salvador Allende, as well as plots against Fidel Castro.
But in those cases, the US was not at war with these leaders’ countries at the time it helped kill them.
“Assassination usually has political motives. It occurs outside the context of unarmed conflict,” said Michael Schmitt, a professor of international law at the University of Reading.
Other considerations beyond the law
The fact that the killing of heads of state as a military tactic has been used sparingly probably has more to do with political considerations than law.
It can be harder to negotiate a quick conclude to the war if you’ve killed the person you would want to negotiate with. Killing a leader can make your adversary want to fight harder rather than surrender.
During World War II, British intelligence services had several plots to kill Adolf Hitler, but some officials were concerned about turning him into a martyr. In the lead-up to the first Gulf War, then-Defense Secretary Dick Cheney fired Air Force Chief of Staff Michael Dugan for telling reporters about plans to “decapitate” the Iraqi leadership by targeting Saddam Hussein.
The allies may have been able to bomb Berlin, but they had little hope of knowing exactly where to drop one to kill Hitler.
His quote illustrates another likely reason why leaders have avoided normalizing assassination: They’d prefer it not happen to them.
A new frontier of assassinations
The death of Khamenei may be the first of its kind in nearly a half-century, but it may also be a sign of more to approach.
Wars are becoming more common again after years of decline. Political assassinations are also becoming more common.
Technological advances in precision bombing and satellites have made it easier to target individuals at great distances. Drones, which can be manufactured more cheaply and deployed more easily, add a new deadly means of assassination.