Israel-US Strikes on Iran: A War of Perceptions and Netanyahu’s Political Gamble

Israel After the Iran War: A Nation United, But For How Long?

The recent military campaign launched jointly by Israel and the United States against Iran has temporarily united a divided Israeli public, with many Israelis believing regime change is the only acceptable outcome. Whereas the U.S. Public and politicians debate the legality and risks of the strikes, Israelis express confidence that the operation – which officials said has removed or degraded Iranian command nodes, missile infrastructure, and senior figures, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei – is already achieving success. This sense of security and triumph, long absent, fuels a vision of a region free from Tehran’s influence. For Israelis, the Islamic Republic has been an undeniable menace since 1979, responsible for rocket barrages and terror attacks carried out by its proxy militias.

A Gift for Netanyahu?

For Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the war represents a potentially crucial turning point. Facing calls for accountability over security failures preceding the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack, a corruption trial, and declining poll numbers, the campaign against Iran offers a chance at political salvation. Throughout his three-decade career, Netanyahu has consistently emphasized the Iranian threat, cultivating an image as the sole protector of Israel. His government is now attempting to reframe all Israeli military operations since October 7 as part of a larger “war of redemption,” culminating in the defeat of Iran, and downplaying the challenges in Gaza. A successful outcome could provide Netanyahu with a powerful electoral advantage.

Déjà Vu: Past Declarations of Victory

However, the current euphoria is tempered by past experiences. Just eight months ago, after strikes that damaged Iranian nuclear facilities, Netanyahu declared that Israel had “removed the Iranian sword hanging over our heads.” Similarly, following the initial successes of the current operation, his language echoed that previous declaration, stating that Iran’s ability to threaten Israel had been “permanently degraded.” This raises concerns about whether a lasting solution has been achieved or if Israel is destined to repeat a cycle of temporary gains followed by renewed conflict.

The Economic and Social Costs

Israelis are weary of constant conflict. The economic costs of ongoing military operations since 2023 are mounting, with the 2026 defense budget projected to consume 4.5 to 6.5 percent of GDP. Tourism has collapsed by 60 percent since October 2023, the budget deficit is rising, and there are concerns about labor shortages and a brain drain of tech workers. Israel continues to face international isolation, and repeated reserve call-ups disrupt civilian life. Democratic institutions have weakened, social cohesion has eroded, and trust in government has fallen.

What Each Side Wants

For Israelis, Iran represents an existential threat. Since 2000, Tehran and its proxies have been linked to the deaths of at least 3,500 Israelis. Reports indicate that Iran provides significant financial support to groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, and Iranian officials have boasted about providing the means for attacks against Israel. Netanyahu has consistently framed the danger posed by Iran in stark terms, drawing parallels to World War II and invoking the demand for decisive action. A successful military operation could provide a temporary reprieve from these concerns.

Public Opinion and the Potential for Elections

Recent polls reflect strong public support for the campaign. An Institute for National Security Studies survey found that fewer Israelis feared an escalatory spiral than during a previous conflict in June, indicating a desire for a definitive victory. Another poll by the Israel Democracy Institute revealed that 93 percent of Jewish Israelis backed the ongoing operation. There is speculation that Netanyahu may seek to move up national elections, potentially to June or July, hoping to capitalize on the perceived success of the military campaign. A Maariv poll conducted in late February suggested that a victory over Iran could improve his coalition’s chances, potentially leading to a protracted deadlock or a grand coalition government.

Confirmed vs. Unclear

Confirmed: Israel, in conjunction with the United States, has launched a military campaign against Iran targeting command nodes, missile infrastructure, and senior officials. Public support for the campaign within Israel is high. Benjamin Netanyahu’s political standing could be bolstered by a successful outcome. The economic costs of ongoing conflict are significant.

Unclear: The long-term strategic impact of the campaign remains uncertain. It is unclear whether the operation will definitively eliminate the Iranian threat or simply lead to a new cycle of conflict. The extent of U.S. Involvement beyond the initial stages is likewise unclear. The timing of potential elections and their outcome are yet to be determined. The full extent of damage inflicted on Iranian infrastructure has not been independently confirmed.

The Risk of Escalation and Unresolved Issues

Despite potential gains, the campaign carries significant risks, including the possibility of escalation with Hezbollah, involvement of the Houthis in Yemen, and widespread Shiite anger following the reported death of Supreme Leader Khamenei. The focus on Iran may divert attention from other critical issues facing Israel, such as its international isolation, economic woes, domestic polarization, and the ongoing situation in Gaza. Even a successful outcome in Iran may not resolve these underlying challenges.

As the conflict continues, Israel will need to navigate these complex challenges carefully. The country’s future security and stability will depend on its ability to avoid unintended consequences and address the root causes of the ongoing conflict. The question remains whether this campaign will truly bring lasting peace and security to Israel, or simply postpone the inevitable.

For more information on the region, see Foreign Affairs’ coverage of Iran.

Further details on Benjamin Netanyahu’s career can be found at Foreign Affairs’ profile of the Prime Minister.