Keating Accuses SMH & The Age of Misleading China War Predictions

Keating Renews Criticism of Nine Newspapers Over China War Predictions

Former Australian Prime Minister Paul Keating has reignited his criticism of Nine Newspapers – specifically The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age – accusing them of disseminating “irresponsible” and ultimately inaccurate predictions regarding the likelihood of a war between Australia and China. The renewed attack comes on the third anniversary of the newspapers’ “Red Alert” series, published on March 7, 2023, which warned of a potential conflict within three years.

Keating released a strongly worded statement on Friday, March 6, 2026, asserting that “None of the claims have materialised.” The former Prime Minister’s comments underscore a long-running dispute with Nine Newspapers and its international editor, Peter Hartcher, whom Keating has repeatedly attacked for what he views as alarmist and biased reporting on China.

The “Red Alert” series, based on the assessment of five national security experts, cautioned that Australia needed to prepare for war with China, suggesting a timeframe of just three years. The report stated, “The overwhelming source of danger to Australia is from China,” and warned of the possibility of “full-scale war” involving Australia. This assessment contrasted with official Canberra guidance, which suggested a longer timeframe for potential conflict.

Keating’s latest statement directly challenges the core premise of the “Red Alert” series, arguing that the predicted escalation to war has not occurred. He further criticized Hartcher, labeling him “maladroit” and reiterating previous, harsh criticisms of the journalist’s reporting. The former Prime Minister’s statement also took aim at Bevan Shields, the editor of The Sydney Morning Herald at the time of the series’ publication, accusing him of allowing Hartcher to publish a “provocative” story aided by “anti-China accomplices.” Shields stepped down as editor last year and was replaced by Jordan Baker.

A History of Disagreement

This is not an isolated incident. Keating has consistently voiced his opposition to what he perceives as a negative and unnecessarily aggressive portrayal of China in Australian media. In March 2023, shortly after the initial publication of the “Red Alert” series, Keating delivered a scathing critique, calling it “one of the most shameful episodes in the history of Australian journalism.” He has also accused Hartcher of being unduly influenced by anti-China sentiment.

Hartcher responded to Keating’s criticisms in 2024, defending his reporting and accusing the former Prime Minister of being “Australia’s foremost apologist for the Chinese Communist Party.” He further suggested that Keating exhibited “bloody-mindedness in retirement” and an “autocratic tendency.”

Concerns Over Journalistic Standards

Keating’s statement raises broader questions about journalistic responsibility and the potential for sensationalism in reporting on national security issues. He specifically called into question the standards at Nine Newspapers, expressing hope that the new editor, Jordan Baker, would prioritize “amoral standards of journalism.”

The “Red Alert” series itself faced criticism from other media observers. Media Watch, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation’s media analysis program, scrutinized the series and Margaret Simons, writing for The Guardian, reported that a range of foreign affairs specialists described the series as “pretentious,” “hyperbolic,” and even “irresponsible.” Some critics also suggested the reporting contained implicitly racist depictions of China.

US Actions and Historical Context

Keating’s statement also included a pointed comparison between Australia’s perceived threat from China and the United States’ own history of military intervention. He referenced “last weekend’s premeditated attack on Iran” – details were not provided regarding the specifics of this attack – and highlighted the US’s history of military engagements, contrasting it with China’s relatively peaceful record. Keating noted that, apart from a brief border conflict with Vietnam in 1979, China has not attacked another state in nearly half a century.

What Happens Next?

Nine Newspapers and Peter Hartcher declined to comment on Keating’s latest statement. It remains unclear whether this will prompt any further response from the media organization or the journalist. However, Keating’s continued criticism suggests that this dispute is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon. The situation highlights the ongoing debate surrounding Australia’s relationship with China and the role of the media in shaping public perception of this critical geopolitical issue. The future of the relationship between Keating and Nine Newspapers remains strained, with little indication of a potential reconciliation.