Most People Believe in Aliens—But Fear Sharing It

The Quietly Widespread Belief in Life Beyond Earth

For decades, discussions about unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP)—often called UFOs—have been tinged with hesitation. Despite widespread curiosity about the possibility of extraterrestrial intelligence, many people avoid openly discussing their beliefs, fearing judgment or appearing irrational. Recent research suggests this reluctance isn’t necessarily a sign of skepticism, but rather a reflection of a common psychological pattern: we vastly underestimate how many others share our views. This phenomenon, dubbed the “cosmic closet,” highlights a powerful dynamic in how we perceive social norms and can have implications for how we approach potentially groundbreaking scientific questions.

A study published in March 2026 by Avi Loeb at Harvard University and colleagues, surveyed 6,060 participants recruited through the Prolific research platform, a widely used resource for behavioral science studies [1]. Rather than a simple “yes” or “no” question, participants were asked to estimate the probability of intelligent extraterrestrial life existing somewhere in the universe, providing a numerical estimate between 0% and 100%. The average response was approximately 67%, indicating that, on average, people believe intelligent extraterrestrial life is more likely than not. Remarkably, around 95% of participants assigned a probability greater than 50%, suggesting a broad leaning towards the plausibility of life beyond Earth.

The “Cosmic Closet”: A Gap Between Personal Belief and Perceived Social Belief

The most striking finding wasn’t the prevalence of belief in extraterrestrial intelligence, but the significant disconnect between personal belief and the perception of what others believe. After reporting their own probability estimate, participants were asked to estimate the probability that people in their social circles held similar beliefs. The results revealed a dramatic difference: while participants’ personal estimate averaged 67%, their estimate of others’ beliefs was only about 21%.

This 46-percentage-point gap, identified by the researchers as the “cosmic closet,” suggests that many people privately believe in the possibility of extraterrestrial life but assume this view is far less common than it actually is. This pattern closely mirrors a well-established concept in social psychology known as pluralistic ignorance.

Pluralistic Ignorance: When Silence Speaks Volumes

Pluralistic ignorance occurs when individuals privately hold a belief but incorrectly assume that most others disagree. This often stems from a desire to avoid social embarrassment or reputational risk, leading individuals to remain silent about their views. This silence, in turn, reinforces the illusion that the belief is uncommon, even when many people privately share it [2]. A classic example is found in studies of college drinking norms, where students often overestimate how comfortable their peers are with heavy drinking, even though many harbor similar reservations. Because everyone assumes others approve, few challenge the perceived norm [3].

The “cosmic closet” appears to operate on a similar principle. If individuals assume that expressing curiosity about extraterrestrial intelligence will be met with dismissal or ridicule, they may keep their views to themselves, even if many others share that curiosity. This creates a self-perpetuating cycle where silence reinforces the perception of social stigma.

How Misperception Can Shape Reality

This misperception of social norms can have tangible consequences. When people underestimate how widely a belief is shared, they may be less likely to discuss it publicly, explore it academically, or pursue it professionally. This dynamic has been observed in other areas as well. Research shows that people often underestimate the prevalence of common experiences like anxiety, depression, or loneliness, which can make individuals reluctant to seek support or support [4]. Fear of judgment often leads to silence, even when many others are experiencing similar challenges.

Similarly, people frequently overestimate the extremity of opposing political views, contributing to a perception of deeper polarization than actually exists [5]. When individuals believe their views differ sharply from the perceived majority, they may self-censor to avoid social conflict, further reinforcing the illusion of division.

Expert Opinion and the Persistence of Belief

Interestingly, the Loeb study also explored whether revealing expert opinion would influence participants’ beliefs. Some respondents were presented with survey results indicating that many astrobiologists—scientists who study the origins and distribution of life in the universe—consider extraterrestrial life plausible. However, this information had only a modest effect on participants’ probability estimates [1]. Even after learning about expert opinions, participants’ beliefs changed very little, suggesting that their views may be more strongly influenced by intuitive reasoning about the vastness of the universe or broader worldview assumptions.

Implications for UAP Discussions and Disclosure

The “cosmic closet” has important implications for how society responds to discussions about UAPs. If people consistently underestimate how many others share their curiosity about extraterrestrial intelligence, public conversations may remain more constrained than public opinion warrants. Research on pluralistic ignorance demonstrates that when individuals learn their views are more widely shared than they assumed, they often turn into more willing to express them openly [2].

the biggest barrier to open discussion may not be skepticism about extraterrestrial life itself, but rather the widespread assumption that curiosity about the topic is socially stigmatized. The recent increased attention to UAPs, spurred by government reports and congressional hearings – like the July 2023 hearing featuring testimony from former Air Force intelligence officer David Grusch regarding alleged concealed programs to retrieve and reverse engineer UAPs [3] – may initiate to shift this perception. However, sustained and open dialogue will be crucial to overcome the psychological barriers that have kept this topic largely confined to the “cosmic closet.”

The study serves as a psychological mirror, reminding us that social reality is shaped not only by what people believe, but by what they believe others believe. Sometimes, the strongest social norms are the ones that exist primarily in our assumptions about each other.