Orbán Claims Zelenskyy Could Form Next Hungarian Government | Election Update
Budapest – As Hungary approaches parliamentary elections on , Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is increasingly framing the campaign around a stark choice for voters: himself, or Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. This tactic, coupled with escalating rhetoric regarding energy supplies and the ongoing war in Ukraine, is injecting a volatile dynamic into the political landscape.
According to reports from 444.hu, Orbán has publicly suggested that Ukrainian actors openly desire a change in government in Budapest. “They would like to spot a pro-Ukrainian government. However, civic, national and Christian forces must win this election battle,” he stated, adding that the opposition Tisza party enjoys support from both Kyiv and Brussels. In a pointed remark, Orbán quipped, “It looks like Zelenskyy will form the government, or I will. If we can only choose between these two options, I suggest it be me.”
Recent polling data indicates a potential shift in Hungarian political sentiment. According to surveys conducted in March, the opposition Tisza Péter Magyar party currently holds a lead over Orbán’s Fidesz, with a margin of eight to ten percentage points. While this lead appears substantial just a month before the election, analysts caution that the outcome remains uncertain. “Orbán is aware that his current voter base will not be enough to win, and he will do everything to gain new voters,” noted Dániel Róna, head of Agency 21.
The escalating tensions are not limited to rhetoric. On , Hungarian police detained seven Ukrainian nationals from the state bank while they were transporting money and gold from Austria, a move Orbán described as a willingness to “detain everything that is crucial for Ukraine and flows through Hungary.” This action, coupled with a planned demonstration by Foreign Minister Szijjártó outside the Ukrainian embassy, underscores the deepening rift between the two countries.
The dispute over the Druzhba oil pipeline has become a central point of contention. Kyiv maintains that the pipeline was damaged by a Russian attack at the end of January and is working to repair it. Budapest and Bratislava, however, accuse Kyiv of intentionally halting transit. Orbán has stated he will restore oil supplies “by force” if necessary, prompting a sharp response from Zelenskyy, who reportedly offered to provide Orbán’s address to Ukrainian soldiers – a statement Orbán’s camp has characterized as a gift for his re-election campaign.
The timing of this escalating conflict is particularly significant given the upcoming elections. According to Endre Hann, director of the Medián research agency, as reported in Népszava, a major shift in voter preferences is unlikely in the coming weeks. “It’s absolutely improbable that something will happen in the next month that will reverse the party preferences,” he said.
However, the Hungarian electoral system introduces a layer of complexity. Róna points out that even if Tisza receives three or four percent more votes than Fidesz on the party lists, Orbán’s party could still secure a majority in the 199-seat parliament by winning a majority of seats in the 106 single-member constituencies. This system allows Fidesz to potentially maintain power even while losing the popular vote.
There are indications of increased mobilization within Fidesz’s existing voter base, with the percentage of supporters certain to vote rising from 80 to 90 percent. Szabolcs Pék, an analyst at the Iránytű Institute, attributes this to the intensification of the Ukrainian-Hungarian dispute over the Druzhba pipeline and the government’s campaign against Zelenskyy.
Currently, Tisza has approximately 600,000 more voters than Fidesz, and Orbán’s task in the remaining days of the campaign is to reverse this trend. Political scientist Gábor Török does not anticipate a significant change in the preferences of the two leading parties.
Orbán’s current tour of Hungary, featuring Fidesz rallies in six different cities, signals his intent to broaden his appeal. “Orbán knows that the current camp is not enough for victory, and he must appeal not only to Fidesz voters but also to undecided voters,” Róna added.
A March survey by Agency 21 for 24.hu revealed that among all voters, Tisza would receive 38 percent of the vote, while Fidesz would receive 30 percent. Among decided voters, the difference widens to ten percentage points, with 51 percent favoring Magyar’s party compared to 41 percent for Orbán.
The broader geopolitical context is crucial. Hungary has consistently been at odds with the European Union over its close ties with Russia and its reluctance to condemn the Kremlin’s actions in Ukraine. Orbán’s government has also repeatedly blocked EU aid packages for Ukraine, citing concerns over corruption and the protection of Hungarian minorities in Ukraine. This stance has further isolated Hungary within the EU and fueled tensions with Kyiv.
In November 2025, Zelenskyy urged Orbán to cease blocking Ukraine’s bid to join the European Union, as Brussels moved forward with considering Ukraine’s application despite concerns about corruption. The European Commission praised Ukraine’s efforts to combat corruption but warned that further progress was needed. Amendments pushed through the Ukrainian parliament earlier in 2025, granting the President’s appointed prosecutor the power to transfer cases away from anti-corruption bodies, raised concerns among European officials and led to protests within Ukraine, ultimately resulting in the restoration of the agencies’ independence.
The Hungarian elections are being closely watched across Europe, as the outcome could have significant implications for the EU’s policy towards Ukraine and Russia. A victory for Orbán would likely embolden other nationalist leaders within the EU and further complicate efforts to forge a united front against Russian aggression. A win for Tisza, could signal a shift towards a more pro-European and pro-Ukrainian stance in Budapest.