Orbán’s Power at Risk: Russia’s Role in Hungary’s Election 2026
Budapest – Hungary heads to the polls on to elect a modern parliament, with recent polling data suggesting a potential shift in power. For months, Péter Magyar, leader of the opposition Tisza Party, has led in opinion polls against the long-serving, right-populist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. As the election nears, concerns are mounting over potential manipulation and the possible influence of external actors, including Russia.
Independent Member of Parliament Ákos Hadházy warns of methods Orbán might employ to maintain power. “I really perceive that Orbán is afraid,” Hadházy stated in a recent interview. “The Hungarian opposition is very optimistic. The poll numbers are better than before the previous election in 2022. In hybrid regimes like Hungary, which are neither a democracy nor a dictatorship, there comes a time when the state propaganda machine no longer functions well.”
Orbán Fuels Fears of War in Hungary
Orbán’s campaign strategy centers on familiar anti-European rhetoric and exploiting public anxieties. He has repeatedly claimed that Ukraine will not repair a pipeline damaged by Russia, potentially triggering an energy crisis in Hungary. Hadházy believes this is a deliberate tactic. “Orbán is hemmungslos – uninhibited – and he could use Russian methods to stay in power. The question is, how far will Orbán go?”
The narratives employed by Orbán are deliberately simplistic, according to Hadházy. “Orbán wants to evoke the fear of a possible war, and he is partially successful as there is a great fear in the Hungarian population of war.”
Hadházy alleges that the Tisza Party is falsely portrayed by Orbán’s government as serving the interests of the European Union and advocating for Hungary’s involvement in a war. “Orbán lies and says that the Tisza Party of Péter Magyar serves the EU and would share Brussels that Hungary has to go to war.”
The level of public acceptance of these narratives is significant. A recent opinion poll revealed that an equal percentage of Hungarians – 65 percent – harbor negative feelings towards both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selenskyj and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Orbán is capitalizing on this sentiment, framing Ukraine as Hungary’s greatest enemy.
“For weeks, the Fidesz party has been running a huge campaign against Selenskyj, and this anti-Ukrainian narrative is well-established,” Hadházy explained. “We have to ask ourselves why the Russian army bombed a pipeline that Russia earns a lot of money from. I believe that the bombing was a coordinated action.”
Allegations of Russian Interference
Hadházy raises concerns about potential Russian involvement in the election. “You’ll see reports that Russian political strategists are in Hungary to help Orbán with the campaign. It is likely that this is the case. But it is also possible that Orbán’s support is organized from Russia.”
He details a pattern observed in recent elections in Romania and Moldova, where Russian intelligence services allegedly launched large-scale social media campaigns approximately a month before the vote. “Russia bought many influencers and pages on Facebook and TikTok – some with only a tiny reach – that spread pro-Russian news four weeks before the elections. And I fear the same thing is happening now in Hungary. We are already seeing it, with posts from Orbán-affiliated newspapers suddenly receiving thousands of likes.”
The question of whether Orbán will accept the election results if he loses remains open. “Orbán will probably not prevent the election, but he will cheat even more,” Hadházy predicts. He draws a parallel to the situation in Georgia, where alleged electoral fraud occurred, and Orbán subsequently traveled to the country to congratulate the president. “If Orbán cheats as much as before, he will lose the election. But he can still use many methods to maintain his power. We have to wait and spot.”