Thailand Shrimp Exports Unaffected by US Tariffs | 400K Tonne Target

Thai Shrimp Exports Weather New US Tariffs, Industry Confident in Rebound

Despite the recent imposition of increased tariffs and anti-dumping duties by the United States, Thailand’s shrimp industry appears largely unfazed, with leaders expressing confidence in a production rebound exceeding 400,000 tonnes this year. The sector is navigating a combined tariff rate of 17.01% – a 15% global tariff coupled with a 2.01% anti-dumping duty – but maintains it remains competitive against other major exporting nations. This resilience comes as the US Department of Commerce (DOC) continues to adjust duties on frozen warmwater shrimp from several countries, including Thailand and Vietnam.

Tariff Details and Competitive Landscape

Ekaphot Yodpinij, president of the Thai Shrimp Association, stated that the industry had anticipated the 15% tariff and factored it into planning. The addition of the 2.01% anti-dumping duty brings the total to 17.01%. While this rate is comparable to those applied to other countries, Thailand currently benefits from the lowest combined rate among key competitors. According to industry figures, Indonesia faces a tariff rate of 18.78%, Ecuador between 15% and 28.75%, Vietnam 22.42%, and India 24.58%. This competitive advantage is a key factor in the industry’s optimistic outlook.

US Department of Commerce Adjustments and Vietnam

The US Department of Commerce (DOC) recently increased anti-dumping duties on frozen warmwater shrimp from both Vietnam and Thailand, following administrative reviews covering February 1, 2023, to January 31, 2024. SeafoodSource reports that these final results establish the definitive amount of duties owed and set future cash deposit rates. For Vietnam, the adjustments were significant for some firms. Thong Thuan, for example, saw its duty rate jump from 0.99% to 25.76%, while Soc Trang Seafood (Stapimex) experienced a reduction from 35.29% to 25.76%. Both companies now face a cash deposit rate of 25.46%. Twenty-two other Vietnamese exporters were assigned a rate of 4.58% with a future cash deposit rate of 4.28%.

Vietnam’s Response and Potential Litigation

The Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) believes the 4.28% rate for many Vietnamese exporters may help stabilize risk profiles for seasonal contracts and maintain a steady supply to the US market. But, VASEP is also considering legal action to demonstrate that Vietnamese shrimp is not being dumped in the US market. Ho Quoc Luc, chairman of shrimp firm Sao Ta, suggests that companies facing high duties, like Thong Thuan and Stapimex, may temporarily shift exports to other markets while awaiting the results of the next administrative review.

Production Increase and El Niño Considerations

Despite global trade uncertainties and the new tariffs, Thai shrimp farmers are reportedly increasing the release of shrimp larvae by more than 50% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year. This surge in production signals growing confidence in both export and domestic demand. Interestingly, industry leaders believe that the forecasted super El Niño, bringing hotter and drier weather, could actually benefit shrimp farming, potentially reducing the risk of supply shortages compared to colder, wetter conditions. ASEAN NOW details this optimistic outlook.

What Happens Next: A 150-Day Window

The current tariff framework is expected to remain in place for approximately 150 days. However, the private sector cautions that US tariff policy is closely linked to decisions made by the US president and could be subject to change. This inherent uncertainty underscores the require for Thai shrimp exporters to remain adaptable and monitor developments in US trade policy closely. The industry is aiming to push shrimp exports beyond 250,000 tonnes this year, contingent on exceeding the 400,000-tonne production target. The Bangkok Post reported on this outlook earlier today.

Confirmed vs. Unclear

Confirmed: The US has imposed a 17.01% tariff on Thai shrimp (15% global tariff + 2.01% anti-dumping duty). Thai shrimp production is expected to exceed 400,000 tonnes in 2026. Shrimp farmers are increasing larvae release by over 50% compared to last year. The current tariff framework is expected to last roughly 150 days.

Unclear: The long-term impact of the tariffs on Thai shrimp exports remains to be seen. The specific effects of the El Niño weather pattern on shrimp farming are still developing. Whether VASEP will pursue litigation regarding the duties on Vietnamese shrimp has not been definitively decided. Details regarding the specific market redirection strategies of Vietnamese firms facing high duties were not provided.