Trump Floats Joint Strait of Hormuz Control & Iran Regime Change Talk

A Shift in Approach: Trump Signals Potential Joint Control of the Strait of Hormuz

In a surprising development, former President Donald Trump has indicated a willingness to explore joint control of the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz with Iran, should ongoing negotiations prove successful. The remarks, made during a brief press encounter at Palm Beach International Airport on Monday, represent a notable shift in tone from earlier, more confrontational rhetoric. This comes as reports surface of back-channel talks facilitated by intermediaries, though Iran has publicly dismissed claims of direct negotiations with the United States. The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, is critical for global oil supply, with roughly 20% of the world’s oil passing through it daily.

The Core Proposal and Unconfirmed Details

Trump’s suggestion of “jointly controlled” access to the Strait emerged during a question from CNN’s Kaitlan Collins regarding current oversight of the waterway. He responded optimistically, stating it would be “open real soon” if a deal with Iran materializes. When pressed on who would participate in this joint control, Trump playfully responded, “maybe me, maybe me,” adding, “the ayatollah, whoever the ayatollah is, whoever the next ayatollah [is].” This comment alludes to the recent passing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the subsequent appointment of his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, to the position following a period of internal conflict involving Israeli and US forces.

However, the specifics of this potential arrangement remain deeply unclear. Trump clarified that current US negotiations are not directly with Mojtaba Khamenei, stating, “We have not heard from the son… We don’t recognize if he’s living.” Instead, he indicated talks are underway with an unnamed “respected” figure within Iran, describing them as “very reasonable, very solid.” Axios reported that Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, have been in contact with Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian parliament, according to an Israeli source. Trump has refrained from publicly identifying this Iranian official, citing concerns for their safety.

From Threats to Dialogue: A Recent Volatility

The current overture represents a significant departure from Trump’s more aggressive stance just days prior. On Saturday, he threatened to strike Iranian power plants via a post on Truth Social if Iran did not open the Strait of Hormuz. He rescinded this threat on Monday, attributing the change to progress in negotiations. This earlier threat also contrasted with his comments on Friday, when departing the White House, where he downplayed the importance of the Strait to the United States, stating, “We don’t utilize the Strait… The United States, we don’t need it. Europe needs it. Korea, Japan, China, a lot of other people.” He suggested these nations would need to “acquire involved a little bit on that one.”

Historical Context: The Strait of Hormuz and Regional Tensions

The Strait of Hormuz has been a focal point of geopolitical tension for decades. Its strategic importance stems from its control over a significant portion of the world’s oil supply. Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the Strait in response to sanctions or military action against it. The United States Navy maintains a strong presence in the region, ostensibly to ensure freedom of navigation. In 2019, Iran shot down a US drone near the Strait, escalating tensions further. Council on Foreign Relations provides a detailed history of the Strait and its geopolitical significance.

The Role of Intermediaries and the Venezuelan Parallel

Trump’s administration has a history of utilizing intermediaries in sensitive negotiations. He drew a parallel to the situation in Venezuela, where the US’s capture of Nicolás Maduro led to Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro’s second-in-command, assuming leadership. This suggests a willingness to work with figures within the existing Iranian power structure, even if not directly with the Supreme Leader. The involvement of Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, as reported by Axios, indicates a continuation of this approach. The potential meeting in Islamabad, Pakistan, involving Witkoff, Kushner, and Vice President JD Vance, highlights the diplomatic efforts underway to facilitate a breakthrough.

What Remains Unclear and What is Confirmed

Several key aspects of this potential agreement remain unclear. The identity of the “respected” Iranian official remains undisclosed, and the specifics of “joint control” are undefined. This proves also uncertain whether the US is seeking a comprehensive agreement addressing Iran’s nuclear program and regional activities, or a more limited deal focused solely on the Strait of Hormuz. What is confirmed is Trump’s willingness to consider a collaborative approach to managing the waterway, a significant shift from his previous rhetoric. The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader is also confirmed, though the extent of his authority and influence remains to be seen.

Looking Ahead: Procedural Next Steps

The immediate next steps likely involve continued back-channel negotiations facilitated by intermediaries. The potential meeting in Islamabad, if it materializes, could be a crucial turning point. The US will likely continue to assess the willingness of Iranian officials to engage in meaningful dialogue and address US concerns. The success of these efforts will depend on a complex interplay of domestic political considerations in both countries, regional dynamics, and the broader geopolitical landscape. Monitoring statements from both Washington and Tehran, as well as reports from credible news sources, will be essential in tracking the progress of these negotiations.