US Military Buildup in Middle East: Iran Retaliates as War Looms

The United States has launched a “large-scale military operation” against Iran, President Donald Trump declared Saturday. Prior to this, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed “preventive strikes” by his country. Since late morning, explosions have shaken Tehran, with smoke rising above the capital. Other cities are also reporting bombardments. The full extent of what and who has been targeted remains unclear.

At the focus of the American effort are central pillars of the regime, and even the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei himself. President Trump has repeatedly threatened Khamenei, stating his intelligence services knew his exact location even during skirmishes last summer. In mid-February, Trump said a regime change in Iran would be “the best thing that could happen.” Iranian news agencies reported early Saturday that Khamenei had been evacuated from the capital before bombs struck his residence in Tehran. By evening, indications of his death were mounting – though official confirmation was initially lacking.

Tehran is the political center of power, housing the command structures of the state and the powerful Revolutionary Guard. However, ports and oil installations further south may also be targeted in further air strikes, aimed at hitting the regime’s key revenue sources.

Many of the attacks are again focused on Iran’s nuclear program, its arsenal of ballistic missiles, and central military installations. Washington and the Israeli government view these as the greatest threat.

Many of these targets were already the focus of attention last summer. In what has been termed the Twelve-Day War, Israel initially attacked Iran’s energy and nuclear facilities, and deliberately killed high-ranking representatives of the military, and regime. It also disabled key parts of Iran’s air defense, which remains significantly weakened.

The United States set a provisional end point to that conflict by dropping bunker-busting bombs on several underground uranium enrichment facilities in Iran. For “Operation Midnight Hammer,” they dispatched more than 125 military aircraft. Notably, there was a high number of tanker aircraft, including those based in the Azores. These can refuel fighter jets in the air, allowing B-2 bombers to fly from the US to the target area in Iran and back without intermediate landings.

The twelve-day bombardment hit Iran hard. Despite damaged nuclear and missile facilities, Tehran repaired, reinforced, or relocated much of it further underground in recent months. A sustained air offensive is needed to permanently destroy the military infrastructure – with a corresponding large deployment of aircraft, personnel, and ammunition, possibly again with bunker-busting bombs.

However, even such a weeks-long campaign would not guarantee the collapse of the power structure in Tehran. Experts like former CIA Director and General David Petraeus doubt that a so-called “regime change” – the overthrow of the Iranian leadership – could be achieved in this way.

Iran’s Retaliation Could Be Costly

Militarily, the US is superior to Iran and can quickly establish air superiority over the country. However, mobile launch ramps and hidden bases are difficult to hit. Tehran also possesses ballistic missiles with ranges extending to Europe, as well as the now-familiar Shahed kamikaze drones.

During the Twelve-Day War, Iran already hit Israel hard with these weapons. According to figures from the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (Jinsa), the hit rate of Iranian rockets rose from 8 percent in the first week to 25 percent on the last day of the war.

The initial reaction from the Iranian regime was harsh. “We warned you. Now you have embarked on a path whose outcome is no longer in your hands,” said the head of the security commission, Ebrahim Azizi.

Tehran is now deploying significantly more drones and missiles in its counterattacks – against Israel, but also against American bases in the region. Thousands of American soldiers are stationed at these bases in peacetime, a number that has been partially reduced recently. The exact extent of this reduction remains unclear.

Fearing Iranian retaliatory strikes, Saudi Arabia had reportedly denied the US overflight rights for a strike against Iran. This complicates attacks – and also raises doubts about how strongly the Arab states in the region would help defend against Iranian missiles. In previous conflicts, Jordanian aircraft, for example, had also launched to shoot down Iranian rockets.

This support is likely to be needed to prevent severe hits and to avoid overloading the American and Israeli air defense systems in the region.

Even as the Israeli protective shield covers large ranges, there are also American Patriot and THAAD systems protecting bases in Israel and the region.

However, a key consideration for both Israeli and American air defense systems is that ammunition is scarce – and, above all, expensive. The wars of the last two years have created a hole in the stockpiles of both the US and Israel. The Americans alone consumed up to 150 THAAD interceptor missiles worth more than $1.2 billion to protect Israel during the Twelve-Day War. This represented a quarter of their stock and is almost twice as much as the main manufacturer, Lockheed Martin, can currently produce in a year.

Whether enough interceptor missiles are currently available to fend off a prolonged barrage from Iran is open to question. One thing is certain: Iranian retaliation is likely to cost the US a considerable sum.

War with Notice

That the region was heading towards military escalation has been foreseeable for weeks. The American aircraft carrier “Gerald F. Ford” left the Greek island of Crete on Thursday, where the warship and its 5,000-strong crew had spent the last few days. It was the last respite before a war against Iran. On Friday, the aircraft carrier arrived off the coast of Israel, completing the American build-up in the region.

Fifteen American warships and two aircraft carriers are now stationed in the eastern Mediterranean and off the Arabian Peninsula. Submarines are also believed to be deployed. The ships are equipped with cruise missiles as well as surveillance and missile defense systems to intercept possible counterattacks.

Around 10,000 soldiers and dozens of aircraft are stationed on the two aircraft carriers alone. The US has dispatched dozens more military aircraft to the region in recent days. According to satellite image analysis, there is now a great deal of activity at air bases in Qatar (al-Udeid), Jordan (Muwaffak Salti), Saudi Arabia (Prince Sultan), and at Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv. There is also movement at bases in England (Lakenheath), Portugal (the Azores), Spain (Rota), as well as in Germany and Italy.

The US has deployed as many warships to the region as it did before the start of the Twelve-Day War in June 2025.