Venezuela Transition: US Interests, Elections & Maduro’s Legacy
The capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, on , following a U.S. Military operation carried out under a U.S. Court order, has opened an unexpected chapter in Venezuela’s political landscape. The raid, executed by U.S. Delta Force commandos, has paved the way for a transition unlike those seen in other nations, typically born from military defeat or civil war. However, beyond its unprecedented nature, the Venezuelan transition is, to a significant extent, guided – or overseen – by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump.
Despite the characterization of the transition as unfolding in three stages – stabilization, economic recovery and the restoration of democracy – as outlined by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a compelling conclusion emerges: the strategic and geopolitical interests of the United States are not necessarily aligned with the Venezuelan people’s fundamental demand for the recovery of democracy, and freedom. A significant divergence exists regarding the timeline, the potential scenarios, and the ultimate mechanism for the reinstitutionalization of the Republic.
Recent escalations in military tensions involving Iran, Israel, and the United States strongly suggest the existence of a broader strategy aimed at curtailing China’s access to oil resources from both Venezuela and Iran. This indicates that the sequence of military actions – first Venezuela, then potentially Iran – was carefully planned to disrupt the flow of Iranian crude oil and control passage through the Strait of Hormuz, contingent upon securing control of Venezuelan oil supplies, pacifying the country, and allowing U.S. Oil companies to resume operations. This strategy aligns with Israel’s interests in dismantling the Iranian regime and neutralizing the nuclear threat to the region.
This global strategic dynamic, spearheaded by the United States with limited consultation with its traditional European allies within NATO, signals the emergence of a new international order distinct from the post-World War II roadmap of Western democracies. The weakening of international organizations like the United Nations and the Organization of American States, effectively stripped of substantial political and military power, has provided a backdrop for this evolving reality, the full implications of which are only beginning to be understood.
As anticipated since the events of , the individuals inheriting power under the tutelage of Washington, led by Delcy Rodríguez, have found a way to maintain their positions by complying with Washington’s directives while simultaneously preserving the repressive and control mechanisms over the population. The conclusion is unavoidable and complex: if the recovery of democracy in Venezuela is to be achieved, its defenders, spearheaded by leader María Corina Machado, must adopt a unified strategy of action. This strategy must operate without direct conflict with the United States, but must also raise its voice and assert its agency within Venezuela to ensure presidential elections are held under pre-established and mutually agreed-upon conditions.
Pursuing presidential elections is a complex but essential task. It represents the sole constitutional path to restoring popular sovereignty, and its realization is entirely feasible even without fundamental legal reforms. It requires a convergence of political will between those overseeing the current regime and the unified forces of democracy. This, coupled with essential measures such as international oversight, an updated electoral registry, and guarantees for the participation of all political leaders and civil society representatives, is crucial.
In parallel with the push for elections, ensuring the participation of the Venezuelan diaspora – the millions of citizens who have left the country – is imperative. This global community comprises over 6 million individuals whose rights have been curtailed. A recent statement from the Venezuelan Citizen Movement in the World, reproduced in El Nacional, highlights this grave violation of human and civil rights. The argument that the participation of the diaspora is impossible, due to complications in the electoral process and the lack of consulates, is unsubstantiated, as technological solutions exist to facilitate their participation within a matter of months. Moving towards the primary objective – elections – while simultaneously addressing the issue of the electoral registry is, a matter of political will, the realization of which almost inevitably requires the return of María Corina Machado to Venezuela, so that the strength of the popular will can reach all ears, both within the country and around the world.
On , sources indicated that Maduro and Flores sustained injuries – bruises or bleeding from impacting a wall or door – as U.S. Delta forces breached their compound in Caracas. These injuries occurred before direct contact with the forces, reportedly during the use of flashbang devices to disorient those inside. Both Maduro and Flores underwent medical evaluation after being transported to Stewart Air National Guard Base north of New York City. Flores was observed with facial bruising following her initial public appearance, and her attorney indicated a potential fractured rib requiring further medical assessment. The raid itself commenced around , with U.S. Forces taking the couple by surprise.